In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-5

Over/Under Predictions: 8-6-1

Run Line Predictions: 7-8

Featured Matchup: 0-1

One NBA game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Model Predicts- Timberwolves ML, OVER 209.5, Mavericks +5

The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves will continue their best-of-seven series on Thursday night, taking the series back to Minneapolis for Game 5.

The Timberwolves finally got into the win column with a 105-100 victory on the road in Game 4, but Minnesota still has an uphill battle to fight. Dallas is still leading the series 3-1, and is undefeated while playing the Timberwolves on the road in the postseason.

Our model projected the Timberwolves to cover the spread as an underdog in a closely-contested Game 4, and now it expects Dallas to do the same on the road in Game 5. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Dallas Mavericks

• Still up 3-1 in series vs Timberwolves after Game 4 loss

  • Own +1.8 Net Rating in series. Consists of 115.8 Offensive Rating and 113.9 Defensive Rating

• Have had the upper hand while on road in postseason

  • 6-2 record on road in playoffs, including 2-0 in this series

  • Own +2.8 Net Rating in those eight matchups- 4th best amongst playoff teams

• Injuries- Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively are questionable. Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Greg Brown are OUT

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Finally found win column in Game 5

  • Won 105-100. Shot 53% overall and 46% from three

  • Making free throws was only concern- shot 64% from free throw line (16/25). Now shooting 70.7% in series

• Struggling to find a rhythm at home

  • 0-2 at home in series. Averaging 106.5 points per game

  • Shooting 37.5% from three as team, but just 42% from floor overall

  • Dallas is dominating inside- outscored Minnesota 116-80 in the paint in Games 1 and 2

• Injuries- Mike Conley is questionable

What’s the Play?

The underdog has covered the spread in three of four games in this Western Conference Final, and we agree with our model that will be the case again in Game 5.

One crucial factor in this series has been Dallas’ ability to close out games. Per NBA.com, the Mavericks own a poor -3.7 Net Rating in the first half of the last four contests, but in the second half of those games we see that rating spike to +7.4. A large reason for that shift is defensive adjustments, with the Mavericks posting a 117.4 Defensive Rating in the first half compared to 110.4 in the second half.

Additionally, Minnesota has had the edge in the paint over the last two games due to the absence of Dereck Lively, but Dallas has dominated inside when Lively plays his full workload. It’s likely we see him back in the lineup tonight, which certainly helps Dallas’ chances here. As a result, we’ll take the Mavericks on the spread, as our model projects the Timberwolves to win by roughly four points.

The Play: Mavericks +5 (-115)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Timberwolves- 65-32 overall this season, 33-15 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Minnesota Timberwolves- Over is 50-46-1 this season, 9-6 in the postseason

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Dallas Mavericks- 58-40 against the spread (ATS) this season, 33-16 ATS as the away team, and 10-6 ATS in postseason

💰 Clippers sign Lue to five-year extension. The Los Angeles Clippers have extended head coach Tyronn Lue's contract for five years, valued at $70 million. With this deal, Lue becomes one of the NBA's highest-paid coaches, and he will lead the team as they transition to their new arena in Inglewood next season. The Clippers might face significant changes this offseason with potential free agents James Harden and Paul George, but Lue’s extension provides some stability in the franchise’s next stages.

🗳 Bronny James keeps name in NBA Draft. Bronny James has decided to enter the 2024 NBA Draft, foregoing the rest of his college eligibility, according to his agent Rich Paul. James has received workout invitations from over 10 NBA teams but will limit his visits, with the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers among the expected stops. Despite suffering a cardiac arrest nine months ago, James was cleared to play and impressed at the NBA combine, after averaging 4.8 points and 2.1 assists in 25 games during his season at USC.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Major League Baseball’s Hall of Fame was created in 1936 with the induction of five members. Four of those members were Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, and Christy Mathewson, but who was the fifth member of the inaugural class?

Question #2- One MLB player won the Gold Glove award 16 consecutive times as a third baseman, earning him the nickname “The Human Vacuum Cleaner”. Who was that player?

Question #3- Pat Riley is the current president of the Miami Heat, but before beginning a career as a coach and executive he actually played in the NBA. Riley was a member of three teams in his career- the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, and what other team?

Anyone know what has happened on May 30th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 30th…

1922- The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs make a trade in between a doubleheader. Max Flack was traded to St. Louis and Cliff Heathcote was traded to Chicago following the first game of the doubleheader. Both players would make an instant impact for their new teams, each recording a hit in Game 2.

1985- The Edmonton Oilers defeat the Philadelphia Flyers by a score of 8-3 in the Stanley Cup Final. The win was Edmonton’s second Stanley Cup in as many years, and the team would go on to win two more titles in 1987 and 1988. Wayne Gretzky and Jari Kurri were the stars of the show, each scoring one goal and posting three assists in the final game of the series.

1986- Barry Bonds makes his major league debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Bonds didn’t make a great impression in his first MLB game, going 0-5 with three strikeouts in a 6-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, as we all know Bonds would rebound quite nicely from that performance, ending his career with an MLB record 762 home runs and winning the MVP award seven times.

1. Honus Wagner

2. Brooks Robinson

3. San Diego Rockets (Now known as the Houston Rockets)