In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

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Seven MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all seven matchups can be found below.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Nationals ML, UNDER 9, Nationals +1.5

The St. Louis Cardinals will wrap up a seven-game road trip on Monday afternoon, taking on the Nationals at 4:05 PM.

St. Louis has had success thus far on its road trip, picking up victories in four of the first six contests, including two wins over Washington. That stretch brings the Cardinals’ season record to 47-42, while the Nationals sit sub-.500 at 42-48.

The Cardinals have been the better team as of late, but several factors have made our model project the Nationals as a slight favorite. Let’s dive into why that is.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Have won four of last six games

  • Two wins over Pirates, two wins over Nationals

  • Own +1 run differential in that span

• Offense has been one of best in MLB this month

  • Rank 9th in wRC+ (123), 3rd in BABIP (.356), and 10th in OPS (.776)

  • Only 5 home runs since July 1st (29th), but 35 runs scored ranks 6th

• Starting pitcher- Miles Mikolas

  • Due for positive regression- 5.18 ERA vs 4.22 xERA

  • Vulnerable to contact- Ranks in bottom 1% of MLB in Whiff rate, bottom 32% in Hard Hit rate

Washington Nationals

• Mixed results in July

  • 3-4 overall record. Losses to Mets and Cardinals

  • -2 run differential across seven games

• Offense has matched Cardinals this month despite fewer wins

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (127), 6th in BABIP (.325), and 7th in OPS (.797)

  • Showing more power- 7 homers, 40 total runs scored since July 1st

• Starting pitcher- Mitchell Parker

  • Due for some regression- 3.61 ERA vs 4.08 xERA

  • Excellent control- 5.2% walk rate ranks in top 12% of MLB this season

What’s the Play?

Both of these offenses have been amongst the MLB’s best recently, making it tough to chose between the two. However, we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back Washington.

One major issue for the Cardinals this season has been their inability to hit left-handed pitching, which they will face today with Mitchell Parker on the mound. Per FanGraphs, St. Louis ranks 29th in wRC+, 28th in BABIP, and 29th in OPS (.624) this season against southpaws, showing that their have been immense struggles for the team in those matchups.

Meanwhile, Mikolas has struggled to prevent contact this season, which will likely pose an issue against a hot Nationals offense. As a result, we’ll take the Nationals outright.

The Play: Nationals ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 44-44 overall this season, 23-19 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- 56-32 overall this season, 26-21 as the away team, and 14-10 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Detroit today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Under is 30-13-2 as the away team, highest win percentage in MLB (69.8%)

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 47-41-2 this season, 24-19 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 52-38 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (57.8%)

💪 Reynaldo Lopez continues dominance as Braves shutout Phillies. Reynaldo López pitched six strong innings, and the Atlanta Braves hit four home runs in a 6-0 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. López (7-2) lowered his ERA to 1.71, allowing only two hits and three walks with six strikeouts. Adam Duvall, Jarred Kelenic, and Matt Olson homered in a five-run second inning off Phillies rookie Michael Mercado, with Eli White adding a solo homer in the sixth inning.

📢 MLB announces final All-Star Game selections. Major League Baseball revealed the pitchers and reserves for the 2024 All-Star game, ensuring each team is represented with 23 AL and 26 NL players added. The Midsummer Classic will take place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on July 16. The AL starters include Adley Rutschman and Aaron Judge, while the NL features Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani, with both teams' rosters featuring a mix of seasoned stars and rising talents.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Heisman Trophy is given out every year to college football’s best player. Normally we see a new face win the award after each season, except in 1974 and 1975 when a player won the Heisman in back-to-back seasons. Who was that player?

Question #2- Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been casuing havoc for opposing defenses for several seasons now. However, there was one Chiefs tight end before Kelce that created even more chaos, eventually going on to set the NFL record for career receiving yards by a tight end. Who was that player?

Question #3- LeBron James was selected first overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003, but eventually left for the Miami Heat several years later. However, James would return to Cleveland in one of the most anticipated free agent signings ever, taking Cleveland to the NBA Finals several times in his second stint. How many consecutive NBA Finals did LeBron lead the Cavs to after returning to Cleveland in 2014?

Anyone know what has happened on July 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 8th…

1970- San Francisco Giants third baseman Jim Ray Hart becomes the eighth player in MLB history to record six RBIs in one inning. He did this by hitting a bases-clearing triple and a three run home run in the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves. Hart would also hit a double and single in the game, making him one of the few players at the time to hit for the cycle.

2010- Paul Goydos becomes the fourth golfer in PGA Tour history to shoot 59 in a round. Goydos accomplished the feat during the first round of the 2010 John Deere Classic, a round that included 12 birdies and six pars. He would go on to finish the event in second with a four-round score of 24-under par, two strokes back of Steve Stricker (-26).

2021- San Diego Padres relief pitcher Daniel Camarena hits a grand slam off Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer. The grand slam was Camarena’s first major league hit, and he joined Mike Corkins as the only pitchers in Padres history to hit a grand slam. San Diego was down 8-2 before Camarena’s long ball, and the Padres would go on to win the game 9-8.

1. Archie Griffin

2. Tony Gonzalez

3. 4