In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NBA, and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 9-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-9

Spread Predictions: 8-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

After beginning the week with a three-game slate, the NBA pumps the brakes today and gives us just three games to choose from. Our model’s predictions for all three matchups are below.

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Model Predicts- Knicks ML, OVER 214.5, Knicks -3

The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers will square off for the first time this season in a highly-anticipated rematch from last postseason.

The Knicks enter tonight’s battle with a 1-2 record, falling short against the Celtics on opening night and the Pelicans on Saturday. The Cavaliers also sit at 1-2 after dropping consecutive games to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.

Injuries are the main headline in tonight’s game, which our model believes will be enough to tip the scales in New York’s favor. Will we see that play out, or will Cleveland defend its home court despite being shorthanded?

New York Knicks

• Offensive struggles have plagued team early on in season

  • Own 104.6 Offensive Rating and -1.6 Net Rating

    • Rank in bottom half of NBA in both metrics

  • 40.4% field goal percent is lowest in NBA this season

  • Julius Randle- 13.7 points per game on 27.7% shooting overall and 30.0% from three

• Luckily have kept defensive mindset the same

  • Rank 9th in Defensive Rating (106.2). Opponents shooting 31.7% from three

  • Have allowed 104 points or less in two of three games

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Injury bug has found Cleveland’s locker room

  • Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Ricky Rubio, and Ty Jerome all listed as OUT. Donovan Mitchell questionable

    • Model suggests these players are worth 6.81 points on spread. 4.45 if Mitchell plays

• Have been unimpressive regardless of who is on floor

  • -4.6 Net Rating. Consists of 109.6 Offensive Rating and 114.2 Defensive Rating

    • Posted +5.6 Net Rating last season- 2nd best in NBA

• Opponents are getting whatever shots they want

  • Shooting 48.3% overall and 40.7% from behind the arc, per NBA.com

What’s the Play?

We saw what happened when Cleveland was without Garland, Mitchell, Allen and Rubio last Saturday, a game that ended in a 125-113 loss for the Cavs. We think that is the likely outcome again tonight.

Even if Mitchell plays, Cleveland will be facing a massive ball handling issue without Garland, Rubio, or Jerome in the lineup. That puts them at a significant disadvantage here, as an off-ball player like Mitchell or Caris LeVert will be forced to take over the playmaking duties.

Cleveland’s bench is also non-existent, scoring just 16.7 points per game and shooting 32.8% from the floor. New York has the upper hand in several areas, so we’ll back them to win and cover tonight.

The Play: Knicks -3 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Knicks- 1-2 overall this season, 26-21 as the away team last season (including playoffs)

• Phoenix Suns- 2-1 overall this season, 1-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Cavaliers- Over is 2-1 this season with average total of 226.0

• Phoenix Suns- Under is 2-1 this season with average total of 212.33

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New York Knicks- 1-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-0 ATS as a road favorite

☘️ Brown, Tatum dominate in win over Wizards. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum combined for 69 points in a comfortable 126-107 over the Wizards on Monday. Kristaps Porzingis, who had previously spent 1 1/2 seasons with the Wizards, returned to Washington and scored 15 points after setting a franchise debut scoring record for the Celtics with 30 points in his first game last Wednesday. Despite their best efforts, the Wizards, led by Kyle Kuzma’s 21 points, struggled throughout the game, falling behind by 26 points within the first 10 minutes.

👋 76ers send James Harden across the country. The LA Clippers acquired James Harden, a 10-time All-Star guard, from the Philadelphia 76ers in the late-night hours on Monday. The 76ers sent Harden, along with P.J. Tucker and Filip Petrusev, to the Clippers in exchange for Marcus Morris, Robert Covington, Nic Batum, KJ Martin, multiple draft picks, and additional considerations from a third team. The trade fulfills Harden's desire to join the Clippers, and pairs him with stars Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook.

Just like the NBA, the NHL is giving us two games today after a loaded Monday slate. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Los Angeles Kings @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Model Predicts- Maple Leafs ML, OVER 6.5, Kings +1.5

The Los Angeles Kings will begin a four-game roadtrip on Tuesday night, which begins in Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs.

The Kings enter tonight’s matchup with a 4-2-2 record, good enough for 3rd place in the Pacific division. Toronto has found plenty of success early on as well, posting a 5-2-1 record through eight games.

Goaltending has been a massive vulnerability for the Kings this season, and our model expects that to lead to a Maple Leafs win in a high-scoring contest. Let’s dive further into why that is.

Los Angeles Kings

• Defense has not been nearly as bad as surface level numbers indicate

  • Allow 3.5 goals per game- 7th most in NHL

  • However, 4th fewest shots on goal per game (27.6) and rank 5th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations (2.34), per Natural Stat Trick

• Goalies Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley have been reason for defensive struggles

  • Talbot- .901 Save % and .800 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5, +3.1 GSAx

  • Copley- .784 Save % and .556 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5, -5.7 GSAx

• Offense is talented enough to overcome weak goaltending

  • Rank 1st in GF/60 in 5-on-5 (3.94) and generate 12.65 high-danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Offense hasn’t put up huge numbers, but is giving themselves great chances

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 sits at 2.20 (20th in NHL)

  • Rank 6th in shots on goal per game, convert on 32.1% of power play chances (4th in NHL)

• Defense is vulnerable in some areas

  • HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 sits at 12.58- third highest in NHL

  • Struggle shorthanded- 25th ranked penalty kill

• Starting goalie- Joseph Woll

  • .968 Save % and .971 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5

  • Ranks first in NHL in GSAx (+8.6)

What’s the Play?

A goalie has yet to be named for the Kings, but we have to imagine that it will be Talbot in net after Copley’s early struggles. No matter what, we like the over here.

Los Angeles owns a stellar defense, but Talbot hasn’t been the most reliable guy in net and is either very hot or very cold. He is truly a wild card, but we would bet on him to be cold against a Maple Leafs offense that is due for positive scoring regression and can generate scoring opportunities at will.

Woll has been great in net, but he has yet to face a team with quite as much fire power as L.A. Expect a high-scoring contest here.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-135)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Toronto Maple Leafs- 5-2-1 overall this season, 2-1-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Kings- Over is 7-1 this season with average total of 8.13 goals

• Vancouver Canucks- Over is 4-3-1 this season with average total of 6.25 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Los Angeles Kings- Puck line is 5-3 this season

• Nashville Predators- Puck line is 5-3 this season

😬 McAvoy ejected for hit to the head. Boston Bruins' defenseman Charlie McAvoy received a match penalty for an illegal check to Florida Panthers' Oliver Ekman-Larsson's head in Monday's game. Mcavoy’s exit meant Boston had to manage with two missing defensemen, with Matt Grzelcyk leaving the game in the first period due to an upper-body injury. Despite McAvoy's ejection, he had scored the game-tying goal just two minutes earlier, and Pavel Zacha secured the comeback victory in overtime as Boston extended their season record to 8-0-1.

💪 Vegas improves on league-best record. Jonathan Marchessault and Shea Theodore delivered in the shootout to secure a 3-2 victory for the Vegas Golden Knights over the Montreal Canadiens on Monday. Paul Cotter and William Carrier found the net in regulation, and Adin Hill's stellar goaltending with 37 saves contributed to the Golden Knights' league-leading record of 9-0-1. The Canadiens outshot the defending Stanley Cup champions 39-26, but it wasn’t enough in what was Montreal’s fourth loss of the season.

The World Series keeps chugging along, with Game 4 set to take place in Phoenix, Arizona today. You can find our model’s predictions for Game 4 below.

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Diamondbacks ML, UNDER 9.5, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks will square off in Game 4 of the World Series on Tuesday night.

Texas took a 2-1 series last night after a 3-1 victory. Marcus Semien put the Rangers on the board first with an RBI single in the third, which was followed up with a Corey Seager home run to break the game open.

Our model did not predict Arizona to win any of the first three games, but that has all changed in Game 4, let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Texas Rangers

• Offense was has not been as strong last two games

  • 4 total runs, batting .145 as a team

  • Strikeouts are way up- 25.8% strikeout rate in that span

  • Now own 69 wRC+, .200 BABIP, and .617 OPS in World Series, per FanGraphs

• Bullpen did terrific job last night

  • Max Scherzer left game after three innings

  • Allowed 4 hits, 1 run, struck out 8, and walked 0 across 6.0 innings

• Starting pitcher- Andrew Heaney

  • 6.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in postseason

  • Mostly used out of bullpen, so could be short start

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Utilizing bullpen for the entire game today

  • Starting pitcher is Joe Mantiply- Only runs he has allowed in postseason came in blowout loss to Phillies

  • Will give way to bullpen that owns 2.85 ERA, 3.99 FIP, and 49.4% ground ball rate in postseason

• Offense has been better than Texas in all three World Series games

  • 97 wRC+, .346 BABIP, .738 OPS

  • Own +5 run differential in series

What’s the Play?

The strategy that Arizona is utilizing today on the mound sort of backfired last time it was attempts. Arizona went down 5-2 against Philadelphia, but then stormed back late to secure the win.

However, we think the Dbacks will find more success this time around, and we agree with our model that they can win this game.

Texas’ offense has gone cold in the World Series, and facing a new pitcher every inning isn’t a recipe to get the momentum going again. Additionally, Adolis Garcia was forced to leave last night’s game, so Texas’ biggest bat could be out of the lineup tonight.

We’ll bank on Arizona tying the series.

The Play: Diamondbacks ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 10-5 overall in postseason, 3-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Under is 8-7 in postseason, 4-1 as the home team with average total of 6.20

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 11-4 in postseason

🤕 Scherzer, Garcia leave Game 3 win with injuries. Ranger slugger Adolis Garcia is set to undergo imaging on his left torso after leaving Game 3 of the World Series due to discomfort following a swing in the eighth inning. This injury came on a night when the Rangers' Game 3 starter, Max Scherzer, exited in the fourth inning due to a back spasm. Despite these setbacks, the Rangers managed a 3-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, taking a 2-1 lead in the Series, but concerns are now circulating about Garcia's potential return

🏆️ Judge wins Roberto Clemente Award. Yankees star Aaron Judge received the Roberto Clemente Award from Major League Baseball on Monday. The award is given to the player that the MLB believes exemplifies “the game of baseball, sportsmanship, and community involvement.” Judge is the fourth Yankees player to receive this prestigious award, joining Ron Guidry, Don Baylor, and Derek Jeter.