In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-1

Spread Predictions: 2-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers

Model Predicts- Tigers ML, UNDER 8.5, Tigers +1.5

The St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers will wrap up a three-game series today, with Game 3 set to begin at 1:10 PM Eastern at Comerica Park.

Game 1 of this series was postponed due to weather, resulting in two games being contested on Tuesday. St. Louis took home the win in Game 1 after rallying in the top of the ninth inning to score its first runs of the day in a 2-1 win, while Detroit dominated Game 2 with an 11-6 victory.

Today’s battle on the mound is relatively even, and neither team is capable of doing much at the plate, but our model still sees some value in backing the Tigers at home this afternoon. Let’s dive into why that is.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Struggled to get much going offensively in April

  • Ranked 23rd in wRC+ (91) and BABIP (.274)

  • Generated walks in high numbers- 9.7% walk rate

• Main issue with offense is lack of power

  • Hit 19 home runs in April (26 games)- second fewest in MLB

  • Ranked in bottom-10 in OPS in final week of April

• Starting pitcher- Miles Mikolas

  • Limits walks (5.0% BB rate), but struggles with everything else

  • Ranks in bottom 19% in Hard Hit rate, bottom 6% in Whiff rate and Expected Batting Average (.316)

  • Owns 5.91 ERA against 5.77 xERA

Detroit Tigers

• Just as bad, if not worse, than Cardinals offensively last month

  • Ranked 24th in wRC+. Owned lower walk rate (8.8%) and higher strikeout rate (24.4%)

• Good news is that offense had major turnaround to end April

  • Rank 7th in BABIP (.305), 5th in OPS (.850), and fifth in wRC+ (142) in the last four games

  • Has resulted in a 3-1 record and +8 run differential in that span

• Starting pitcher- Kenta Maeda

  • Owns 5.96 ERA against 4.53 xERA

  • Struggles to generate swings and misses and strikeouts, but ranks in top 21% in Average Exit Velocity (86.4 mph) and Hard Hit rate (32.4%)

What’s the Play?

Today’s matchup doesn’t feature high powered offenses or pitchers, but we agree with our model that this is a good spot to back the Tigers.

The largest difference in the battle on the mound this afternoon comes in the hard contact department, which greatly favors Maeda and the Tigers. Opposing hitters have had a hard time generating meaningful contact while Maeda is on the mound, and the 1.43-run gap between his real ERA and xERA shows that he has often been unlucky, a trend that can reverse against a weak Cardinals offense.

Meanwhile, Mikolas’ vulnerability to hard contact has put him and the Cardinals in bad spots all season, and the fact that his real ERA and xERA are nearly identical shows that he has played within range of expectations. Running into a hot Tigers offense certainly won’t help his struggles, and that is why we will take the Tigers on the money line this afternoon.

The Play: Tigers ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Tigers- 17-13 overall this season, 6-4 in last ten games

• Baltimore Orioles- 19-10 overall this season, 5-0 against division opponents (Play AL East rival New York today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 22-7-1 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (75.9%). Under is 13-4-1 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 16-11-2 this season, 9-7-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 21-8 this season, 12-3 as an underdog

🤕 Mike Trout set to have meniscus surgery. Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout will undergo surgery for a torn meniscus in his left knee, according to GM Perry Minasian. While there's no set timeline for his return, the procedure is not expected to end his season. The Angels signed Kevin Pillar to a one-year contract and selected Amir Garrett from Triple-A Salt Lake to fill Trout's spot on the roster.

🥊 Benches clear, punches thrown in Rays/Brewers game. Tensions flared in the eighth inning of Tuesday's game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays, as Brewers reliever Abner Uribe and Rays outfielder Jose Siri got into a physical altercation after a groundout. Both players were ejected as benches cleared and teammates intervened to separate them. The incident stemmed from an earlier confrontation when Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta was ejected for hitting Siri with a pitch after Siri admired a home run he hit earlier in the game.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two University of Connecticut basketball players were selected in the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft. Who were those players?

Question #2- MLB player Andrew McCutchen has played on five teams in his career. What team has he played for twice?

Question #3- What NFL running back led the league in rushing yards during the 2013 season, recording 1,607 in total?

Anyone know what has happened on May 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 1st…

1991- MLB legend Nolan Ryan throws a no-hitter in a 3-0 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The performance was the 7th no-hitter of Ryan’s career, the most by any pitcher in MLB history. Ryan also accomplished the feat at 44 years old, making him the oldest pitcher to throw a no-hitter.

1992- Oakland Athletics star Rickey Henderson steals a crucial base in a 7-6 win over the Detroit Tigers. The steal gave Henderson 1,000 for his MLB career, becoming the first player in MLB history to reach the milestone. Henderson is still the only player to steal 1,000 bases, ending his career with 1,406 in total.

2000- Former MLB slugger Barry Bonds hits a home run into the San Francisco Bay. Bonds was the first player to ever hit a baseball into the Bay, and the hit was a huge boost for the Giants in a 10-3 win over the New York Mets. Bonds would go on to hit 35 balls into thr Bay during his career.

1. Andre Drummond, Jeremy Lamb

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

3. LeSean McCoy