In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the MLB model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 4-9

Run Line Predictions: 6-7

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Game 3 of the NBA Finals is set to take place tonight in Miami, Florida. Denver won Game 1 rather easily, but the Heat strung together a second half comeback to win Game 2 and steal a win on the road.

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat

Model Predicts- Nuggets ML, OVER 214 , Heat +2.5

The Denver Nuggets and Miami heat will face off in Game 3 of the NBA Finals with the series tied at 1-1.

Both of these teams have been a force all postseason, with Miami obviously being the bigger surprise as the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. However, Denver has had some notable struggles on the road dating back to the regular season, making them tough to trust in these spots.

Will Denver figure things out and get their second win of the series like the model is predicting, or will the Heat continue their stellar postseason run and go up 2-1 on their home court?

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets looked like they might run away with Game 2, despite the slow start in the first few minutes.

Denver went into halftime up 57-51, and even ended the third quarter with an eight-point lead. However, a 36-25 scoring outburst from the Heat in the final 12 minutes gave Denver its first home loss of the postseason, one that could have easily been a win.

Denver didn’t lose Game 2 because of its offense though. Yes, buckets were tough to come by in the late stages of the game, but NBA.com shows that the Nuggets posted a 124.1 Offensive Rating in that matchup. Denver also shot 52% overall and 39% from behind the arc, so everything appears to have been clicking for the No.1 seed.

However, the issue that Denver is facing is the pace of play, which heavily favors Miami here.

Denver isn’t exactly a “fast-paced” team this postseason, generating 96.33 offensive possessions per game in 15 postseason games. However, the Pace has dropped to an alarming 89.75 in the Finals. Denver scored the fifth-most fastbreak points per game this season with 16.2, and the slower pace is limiting what the Nuggets can do in transition.

Miami Heat

Right when you think the Heat are out of it they manage to steal a win on the road before heading back home. It has happened in every series this postseason, and that has put Miami in a great position when it returns home.

Rounds 1 and 2 were tied 1-1 after two games, while the Heat went up 2-0 in Round 3 before heading back to Miami for Game 3. Getting a win on the road is crucial in the postseason, and Miami has followed those road performances by going a perfect 3-0 in Game 3s this postseason on its home court.

In Game 3s Miami owns a +67 point differential, averaging 119.3 points per game. The three-pointer has been the reason why, with Miami shooting 42% from behind the arc in those matchups. Miami had one bad three-point shooting performance in Game 3 against New York (22%), yet still won the game by 19 points.

The three-pointer got Miami back into the game on Sunday, and the Heat finished the night shooting 49% from deep. That might look to be an outlier performance, but the Heat have proven that they can shoot well from behind the arc in these situations. Seeing another performance like that isn’t out of the equation.

What’s the Play?

Miami has been counted out for most of the postseason, yet the Heat are in the NBA Finals and have a chance to go up 2-1 on their home court. Our model likes Denver to win, but we agree that Miami can cover the spread here.

Denver is a notoriously bad road team, going 19-22 on the road in the regular season. The Nuggets have improved slightly on the road in the postseason (4-3 overall), but that record is far worse than its 9-1 home record. Miami is 6-2 at home in the postseason with a 106.7 Defensive Rating, so things won’t get any easier for the Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets are an entirely different team on the road, and the dramatic slow down in Pace has prevented Denver from scoring in transition. That tips the scales toward Miami, so we’ll back them on the spread in Game 3.

3-star play: Heat +2.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends💰

• Denver Nuggets- 13-4 overall in postseason, 4-3 as the away team

• Miami Heat- 13-7 overall in postseason, 6-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Denver Nuggets- Over is 9-8 overall in postseason, 4-3 as the away team with average total of 231

• Miami Heat- Over is 12-8 overall in postseason, 4-4 as the home team with an average total of 211.75

Spread Trends➕➖

• Denver Nuggets- 10-7 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 4-3 ATS as the away team

• Miami Heat- 14-6 ATS in postseason, 6-2 ATS as the home team

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat

• Denver Nuggets

  • Collin Gillespie (OUT)

• Miami Heat

  • Tyler Herro (OUT), Victor Oladipo (OUT), Cody Zeller (Game Time Decision)

👀 Dallas interested in Jeff Van Gundy, Jeff Hornacek. The Dallas Mavericks have been the main focus of the rumor mill this week. It started with Kyrie Irving speaking with LeBron James about joining him in Dallas, but now the focus has shifted to who will join Jason Kidd on the coaching staff. Two early names that have popped up are Jeff Van Gundy and Jeff Hornacek, both of whom have plenty of NBA coaching experience. Van Gundy, who is currently a commentator for ESPN, was previously a head coach for the Houston Rockets and New York Knicks, while Hornacek previously coached the Suns and Knicks and is now an assistant with Houston. It doesn’t appear that Dallas has enough to trade for LeBron, but adding experience to the coaching staff can certainly help turn the franchise around after missing the playoffs this season.

🤕Tyler Herro out for Game 3. The Miami Heat have been without Tyler Herro since he broke his hand in Round 1 against Milwaukee, and it was announced that Miami will be without one of its top scorers for a little while longer. It was reported that we could see Herro return to the court in either Game 2 or 3, but he is experiencing more swelling in his right hand than expected and therefore will remain on the shelf. Herro has been a full participant in practice, but his next chance to return to the floor will be Game 4 on Friday night.

🔄 Ivan Provorov sent to Columbus in three-team deal. Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Ivan Provorov was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets in a three-team deal that also involved the Los Angeles Kings. According to Russ Joy, Philadelphia received Cal Petersen, Sean Walker, and Helge Grans in the deal, along with a first-round pick and two second-round picks in what is the first trade in general manager Danny Briere’s tenure with the team. Briere and the rest of the front office are in the process of rebuilding the Flyers franchise, so the haul of draft picks makes a lot of sense for a team that finished the 2023 season with 31 wins and 75 points, both of which ranked 14th in the Eastern Conference.

🥅 Bobrovsky is expected to be between the pipes in Game 3. Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has had a stellar postseason up to this point after originally being benched in favor of Alex Lyon in Round 1. However, Bobrovsky has taken a major step back in the Stanley Cup Final, allowing eight goals and posting a .826 Save % through the first two games. That performance hasn’t appeared to fluster Panthers coach Paul Maurice though, who says he will start Bobrovsky in Game 3. “I’ve got complete faith in what he’ll be able to do in Game 3,” Maurice said, hoping that being back in front of the home crowd will energize his goalie and the rest of his team.

There are 15 MLB games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, with the first starting at 12:35 PM Eastern. However, due to some gaps in data, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

There are no 3-star plays in the MLB today.

Money Line Trends💰

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 36-25 overall this season, 16-11 as the away team

• Baltimore Orioles- 37-23 overall this season, 20-11 as the away team, and 12-8 as a road underdog

• Texas Rangers- 40-20 overall this season, 21-8 as the home team, and 25-14 when coming off a win

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 30-29-1 overall this season, 15-13 as the away team

• San Diego Padres- Under is 40-19-2 overall this season, the highest win percentage in the majors by 4.0%

• Texas Rangers- Over is 34-24-2 overall this season, 25-13-1 when coming off a win

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 36-24 overall this season, 21-13 when coming off a loss

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 37-23 overall this season, 17-3 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤕 Yankees place Aaron Judge on the IL. New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge will head to the IL with a ligament strain in his right toe, per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. Judge suffered the injury when he busted through the Dodgers’ bullpen gate while making an unbelievable catch on Saturday, which could be in the running for catch of the year already. The news is unfortunate for Judge, who was in the midst of another MVP season after batting .291 with 19 home runs in 49 games.

🔥 Marcus Semien, Luis Arraez stay hot at the plate. Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien and Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez are swinging two of the hottest bats in the MLB at the moment. Semien extended his hitting streak to 25 games last night after hitting a double in the fourth inning on Tuesday night, tying Ian Kinsler for the longest hitting streak by a Rangers players since 2008. Meanwhile, Arraez collected two hits in four at-bats against the Royals, putting the 26-year-old’s batting average above .400 for the season. No player has hit above .400 for an entire season since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941, but Arraez still has a long way to go to make that happen.

🏥 Jacob deGrom to have Tommy John surgery. One day after being transferred to the 60-day IL, the Rangers announced that newly-signed pitcher Jacob deGrom will undergo Tommy John surgery. Texas signed deGrom to a 5-year, $185 million contract in the offseason, but he has not pitched since April due to right elbow inflammation. The ace has only made 26 starts over the last two seasons, and this will be the second time he receives Tommy John surgery after having the procedure in 2010 with the Mets.

💪 Damar Hamlin is officially back in action. Voluntary spring practices are beginning for NFL teams all across the country, and some encouraging news came out of Buffalo yesterday at Bills practice. Damar Hamlin participated in team drills for the first time this spring, marking a huge step in his recovery after going into cardiac arrest during a game against the Bengals in January. Prior to yesterday Hamlin was limited to individual drills and stretching, but it appears that 25-year-old is in a position to resume his football career after his frightening collapse.

👀 The PGA Tour agrees to merge with rival LIV Tour. The LIV Tour has been the subject of controversy after plucking several golf stars away from the PGA Tour for hundreds of millions of dollars. However, the two tours decided to merge on Tuesday, bringing the European Tour with them as well. The merger has already sent current PGA Tour players into a frenzy, including two-time major champion Collin Morikawa, some of whom missed out on hundreds of millions of dollars to stick with the PGA, all just to end up being back with the tour one year later anyway. All lawsuits against the LIV Tour have been dropped due to the merger as well, making the LIV Tour and its players the big winners in the deal.

🎰 NFL investigates Isaiah Rodgers for betting. Indianapolis Colts cornerback and kick returner Isaiah Rodgers is now under the NFL’s microscope for potentially violating the league’s gambling policy. It doesn’t appear that the investigation will take very long, as Rodgers took to Twitter in a classic Notes app statement to say, “I’ve let people down that I care about. I made an error in judgement and I am going to work hard to make sure that those mistakes are rectified through this process.” Calvin Ridley was the first domino to fall in the gambling violations in 2022, but since then several players have been suspended for wagering on sports, and if we had to guess, Rodgers is likely not the last.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Several NBA stars, such as Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, skipped out on college ball and opted to go straight to the pros. However, after the 2005 NBA Draft the league decided that a player had to be at least 19 years old to be eligible for the draft, forcing many top recruits to pursue the college basketball route. Who was the last player drafted out of high school in 2005?

Question #2- Georgetown has had plenty of NBA talent come through its program over the years, but the Hoyas have not produced many NBA players recently. In fact, only four current NBA players represented the Hoyas at the collegiate level at one point in their college basketball career: Omer Yurtseven, Jeff Green, Mac McClung, and who else?

Question #3- Villanova is mostly known for its basketball program, but 41 Villanova football players have been drafted to the NFL. However, only one of those players has been inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame. Who is that player?

Anyone know what has happened on June 7th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day, especially in 1989.

On June 7th…

1989- The first baseball game to start outdoors and end indoors is played in Toronto, Canada, a 4-2 victory for the Blue Jays over the Milwaukee Brewers. Toronto’s stadium was one of the few stadiums to have a retractable roof, which was forced to close after “threatening weather” rolled through the area.

1989- Wayne Gretzky wins his ninth Hart trophy in the last ten years, the last time he would win the award in his career. Gretzky had won the award in eight straight years from 1980-1987, but lost the voting in 1988 to Mario Lemieux, who ended with 292 votes compared to Gretzky’s 76. However, Gretzky’s ninth Hart Trophy is still the NHL record to this day, so he got the last laugh after having a “down” year.

2018- The Washington Capitals defeat the Las Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals, giving Washington its first Stanley Cup in franchise history. It was Washington’s first finals appearance since being swept by Detroit in 1998, and it was also Vegas’ first appearance as it was the Golden Knights’ first season in the NHL. Alexander Ovechkin was named MVP, and led the NHL in regular season goals that year with 49.

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