The Beginning of the End

Who is Winning Game 1 of the NBA Finals?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NBA Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • NHL News

  • MLB Model Predictions, Trends, and News

  • What Else is Cooking?

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

    Let’s not waste any more time. Who wants to be a winner today?

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the MLB model performed below.

MLB Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 5-4

Over/Under Predictions: 3-6

Run Line Predictions: 9-0

3-star Predictions: 1-0

NBA🏀

Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. (Ron Chenoy)

Today’s Model Predictions

There is one NBA game scheduled to take place this evening, with that matchup being Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets. Miami is coming off an intense seven-game series against Boston, while Denver cruised to a sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

Three-Star Plays⭐️⭐️⭐️

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets

Model Predicts- Nuggets ML, OVER 219, Nuggets -8.5

The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will kickoff the NBA Finals in the Mile High City on Thursday night.

Miami comes into the NBA Finals after an emotional Game 7 win over Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat were up 3-0 in the series, but nearly blew it in what would have been a historic choke.

On the other hand, the Denver Nuggets put things on cruise control in the Western Conference Finals, sweeping LeBron James and the Lakers in four games.

The Heat have a very short turnaround of just three days from Game 7 of the ECF to Game 1 of the Finals, while Denver has not played a game in ten days. Will the well-rested Nuggets take advantage of a battle-tested Heat squad, or will Miami continue its stellar playoff run and win Game 1 for the fourth time this postseason?

Miami Heat

What a postseason it has been for the Miami Heat.

It feels like ages ago, but this Heat team was on the brink of being bounced from the Play-In tournament before the postseason even began. It took a 15-1 run in the final three minutes for Miami to overcomes the Bulls for the No.8 seed, a performance that turned out to be the catalyst for Miami’s playoff run.

Miami has played 18 games since that infamous Play-In comeback, going 12-6 in the timeframe. The key to Miami’s success has been its production on the offensive end of the floor, which was almost nonexistent during the regular season.

Per NBA.com Miami posted a 112.3 Offensive Rating in 82 regular season games, ranking 25th in the NBA. However, that rating has risen to 116.1 in the postseason, a significant improvement for one of the NBA’s worst offenses.

The three-pointer has been the reason for Miami’s massive improvement. This team threw up bricks all season long, shooting an abysmal 34.4% from behind the arc in 82 games. Miami’s percentage from behind the arc sits at 39.0% in the postseason though, the best amongst the 16 teams to make the postseason.

Clearly, a switch has been flipped on offense. The combination of playoff Jimmy Butler and Miami’s incredible backcourt depth has made this team a huge threat, one that is not going to go down without a fight.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets entered the postseason as the No.1 overall seed in the Western Conference, and after three rounds it is easy to see why.

No one seems to have an answer for Denver on the offensive end. NBA.com has the Nuggets ranked first in Offensive Rating at 119.7 across 15 postseason games, 3.4 points higher than the next closest team. Unsurprisingly, Nikola Jokic is a huge reason why that rating exists, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game in the playoffs.

Jokic isn’t the only Nugget finding a groove on offense though. Six of Denver’s players are averaging at least 11.5 points per game in the postseason, showcasing an unbelievable amount of depth. That core has also been able to light it up from deep, shooting 38.6% from three in the playoffs.

It’s pretty clear that Denver’s three-point shooting and offensive depth has been the biggest difference maker so far, leading to a 12-3 record in the postseason and a perfect 8-0 record at home. When that is combined with its 107.5 home Defensive Rating, Denver is nearly impossible to beat.

What’s the Play?

There isn’t too much scientific evidence of this, but playing at a high altitude may be Denver’s biggest advantage here, and it is impossible to deny. Denver was 34-7 at home in the regular season compared to 19-22 on the road, and now Denver is 8-0 at home in the postseason but 4-3 on the road.

However, Denver has slowly started to lose traction on its home court, especially in Game 1 of a series. The Nuggets held the Timberwolves to 80 points in Game 1, the Suns to 107, and the Lakers to 126, showing that as the competition gets better the home court advantage gets smaller.

With that being said, we were very close to pulling the trigger and making Nuggets -8.5 a 3-Star play. However, Miami is a perfect 3-0 in Game 1’s in the postseason, all of which came on the road. Therefore, we feel the over is a solid play in this spot, which is 2-1 in Game 1’s for both Miami and Denver in the postseason.

3-star play: Over 219 (-110)

Relevant Betting Trends

Money Line Trends💰
  • Miami Heat- 12-6 overall in postseason, 6-4 as the away team

  • Denver Nuggets- 12-3 overall in postseason, 8-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️
  • Miami Heat- Over is 11-7 overall in postseason, 7-3 as the away team with average total of 225.0

  • Denver Nuggets- Over is 8-7 overall in postseason, 3-5 as the home team with average total of 218.75

Spread Trends➕➖
  • Miami Heat- 13-5 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 7-3 ATS as the away team

  • Denver Nuggets- 9-6 ATS in postseason, 5-3 ATS as the home team

Injury Report

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
  • Miami Heat

    • Tyler Herro (OUT), Victor Oladipo (OUT)

  • Denver Nuggets

    • Collin Gillespie (OUT)

News Around the League

💰 Pistons sign Monty Williams to MASSIVE deal. Former Phoenix Suns head coach Monty Williams was a hot commodity on the coaching market after the Suns let him go following a second round playoff exit. Williams’ past success with Suns may have gone unnoticed by Phoenix, but it landed him the largest coaching contract in NBA history yesterday. The Detroit Pistons have reportedly offered Williams a six-year, $78.5 million contract that can be worth up to $100 million with incentives, per Adrian Wojnarowski. Detroit won just 17 games in the 2022-23 season, the fewest in the NBA by a wide margin, but its new head coach has enough experience and skill to get the Pistons back to the top.

👋 Scott Perry leaves Knicks’ front office after six seasons. The New York Knicks and general manager Scott Perry have agreed to part ways following the Knicks’ second round playoff exit. Perry was involved in several key moves for New York over the years, including the signing of Jalen Brunson last offseason. Brunson played a huge role in New York defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers in Round 1 of the playoffs in 2023, the organization’s first series victory since 2013. Perry is reportedly “exploring other options, per Ian Begley, but it does not appear that those options will be with the Knicks.

NHL🏒

Seattle Kraken General Manager Ron Francis (NHL.com)

🍁 Toronto finds a new GM. The Toronto Maple Leafs fired Kyle Dubas in May, leaving the club’s general manager position wide open. However, as of yesterday it is being reported that Brad Treliving will be hired as Toronto’s new GM. Treliving was formerly a member of the Calgary Flames’ front office, but he agreed to part ways with the franchise in April after Calgary failed to make the postseason. The Flames made the playoffs five times in nine years with Treliving as GM, but failed to ever advance past the second round.

💰 Kraken extend Ron Francis. General managers were raking in the money yesterday, including Seattle Kraken GM Ron Francis. Seattle has reportedly given Francis a four-year extension, keeping him with the franchise through 2026-27. He was hired in 2019, two years before the NHL expansion draft took place, and his leadership led the Kraken to the second round of the postseason in only their second season as an NHL franchise.

MLB⚾️

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman (Dan Hamilton/USA TODAY Sports)

Today’s Model Predictions

There are only seven MLB games set to take place this afternoon and evening, largely because most teams finished off their series yesterday. However, due to gaps in the early season data as well as delays with odds being posted, our model has predictions for five of today’s seven matchups.

Three-Star Plays⭐️⭐️⭐️

There are no 3-star plays in the MLB today.

Relevant Betting Trends

Money Line Trends💰
  • Boston Red Sox- 28-27 overall this season, 15-13 as the home team

  • Minnesota Twins- 29-27 overall this season, 16-12 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️
  • Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 26-27-3 overall this season, 14-8-2 as the home team, 3-1 in last four games

  • Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 28-23-4 overall this season, 16-13-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends➕➖
  • Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 33-22 overall, 16-7 as a road underdog

Injury Report

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com

News Around the League

💎 George Kirby pitches a gem against New York, ends Seattle’s losing streak. The Seattle Mariners have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, but it is hard to believe they would be in this position without George Kirby. Kirby was nearly perfect on the mound last night, going 8.0 innings and allowing just three hits and no walks. The performance was Kirby’s fifth in his last seven appearances pitching at least seven innings, and it came on the heels of his worst start of the season against Pittsburgh on Monday (4.2 innings, 7 earned runs). Seattle still owned a -13 run differential in the series, but getting back in the win column was the only goal for last night after losing two consecutive games.

🎉 Cincinnati ends the drought against Boston. The Cincinnati Reds haven’t had much to cheer about over the last several seasons, but last night’s victory over the Boston Red Sox was something to celebrate. The Reds have won the first two games of their three-game series against Boston, giving Cincy its first series win over the Red Sox since the 1975 World Series. It took until the fifth inning for the Reds to get on the board last night, but the runs flowed in through the seventh inning in a 5-4 victory. The Reds will look to finish off the sweep against Boston tonight.

🗳 All-Star voting has officially begun. Believe it or not, we are already two months into the MLB season, and All-Star weekend is right around the corner. As a result, we can all vote for our favorite players for the 2023 All-Star game, which is set to take place in Seattle on July 11th. An individual can cast up to five votes every 24-hours from now until June 22nd, so if you want to see your favorite player in the big game you will have plenty of chances to make it happen.

What Else is Cooking🍳

New York Jets running back Breece Hall (Pro Football Network)

👀 Jets optimistic about Breece Hall. New York Jets running back Breece Hall’s rookie season was cut short due to an ACL tear, but New York believes the second-year back can be ready for Week 1. Head coach Robert Saleh is “very optimistic” Hall can be ready by the season opener, stating that he has even reached speeds of 22 mph in practice. Hall rushed for 463 yards and added 218 yards through the air in seven games before injury, so his return to the team will give New York another great weapon on the offensive side of the ball for Aaron Rodgers.

⁉️ Is Jameis Winston still a starting quarterback? We all remember the Jameis Winston of old, a quarterback who threw the ball to the defense just as much as his own teammates in some seasons. Despite that, Winston was one of the more entertaining signal callers in the NFL, and he still believes that he should be a starting quarterback in the league, per ESPN’s Katherine Terrell. Winston began last season as the starter for New Orleans, but lost his spot to Andy Dalton after being sidelined with a back injury and will now compete with Derek Carr for the top spot. He is only 29 years old though, so it is possible the former Heisman Trophy winner has some gas left in the tank.

⭐️ Several college stars withdraw from NBA Draft. The NBA Draft is right around the corner, and collegiate players are starting to pull their names out and return to school. Tristen Newton of UCONN and Purdue’s Zach Edey were two of those players, and Florida Atlantic’s Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin will also return to school in hopes of another Final Four run. However, Kentucky stars Oscar Tshiebwe and Chris Livingston will remain in the NBA Draft, making it a disappointing day for Wildcat fans.

🤯 Shannon Sharpe set to leave Undisputed. Sports talk television normally comes up short in the entertainment department, but Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless have given us some great moments over the years. Unfortunately, it appears that the duo is going to separate, after it was announced that Sharpe and Fox Sports have reached a buy out. As a result, we will no longer see the Hall of Fame tight end or his podcast on Fox Sports, but we have a feeling that he will back on a network in no time.

Trivia Section🧠

Former Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chad Ochocinco (David Kohl/AP)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Hockey is certainly gaining popularity in the United States, but the sport has been a fan-favorite amongst Canadiens for decades. However, hockey is not the national sport of Canada despite how popular it is. What sport is the national sport of Canada?

Question #2- Chad Ochocinco was a tough cover for many NFL defenses, tallying over 11,000 yards in his career along with 67 touchdowns. There is no doubt about his talent on the field, but there was some doubt about his thought process of changing his last name to his jersey number (85). What was Ochocinco’s real last name before it was legally changed?

Question #3- The Northwestern Wildcats finished last in the Big 10 in 2022 with a 1-11 record, three fewer wins than the next closest team in the conference. They ended the season on an 11-game losing streak, but believe it or not that is not the longest losing streak in the program’s history. What is the most games that Northwestern lost in a row, which remains an NCCAF Division I record to this day?

On This Day in History🗓

Former Phoenix Suns guard Dan Majerle (Majerle’s Sports Grill)

Anyone know what has happened on June 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 1st…

1925- New York Yankees legend Lou Gehrig comes in as a pinch hitter, flying out to left field in what would become a 5-3 loss. The at-bat might not seem significant, but it marked the start of 2,130 consecutive appearances for Gehrig. That record stood for many years, that is until Cal Ripken Jr. claimed the throne.

1975- California Angels pitcher Nolan Ryan records his fourth no-hitter in a 1-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. At the age of 28-years-old, Ryan had tied Sandy Koufax for the most no-hitters in MLB history, while simultaneously becoming the first pitcher to throw a no-hitter in three consecutive seasons. He would go on to throw three more no-hitters in his career to end with seven, which remains the MLB record.

1993- Dan Majerle sets an NBA record for three-pointers made in a playoff game with eight. Many thought Majerle’s record would remain untouched, but his record has since been blown out of the water. Damian Lillard is now at the top of the list with 12, and he is the only player NBA history to have made double-digit three-pointers multiple times in a postseason game.

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Trivia Answers

  1. Lacrosse

  2. Johnson

  3. 34 games