In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-4

Over/Under Predictions: 9-5

Spread Predictions: 8-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 4-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-5

Run Line Predictions: 5-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There is one NFL game set to place this evening, with the Seattle Seahawks battling the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants

Model Predicts- Seahawks ML, OVER 47.5, Seahawks -2

The Seattle Seahawks have made the cross-country journey to East Rutherford, New Jersey to take on the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Seattle enters this matchup as a two-point favorite on the road, a result of picking up wins over the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers the last two weeks after falling to the Rams in Week 1. Meanwhile, New York has failed to get much going, coming into today at 1-2 .

Seattle has proven to be the better team in the early going, and our model believes that will remain the case tonight. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Seattle Seahawks

• Offense has been dominant through three games

  • 4th in EPA/play, 12th in yards per play

• Don’t run ball often, but still effective on ground

  • Run ball on just 41.3% of plays

  • Still tallying over 100 yards per game on ground

  • 1st in EPA/rush and 6th in rush success rate

• Geno Smith has proven to be effective passer as well

  • Ranks in top-10 of NFL in success rate and CPOE

  • Not throwing ball in large chunks though- ranks 30th in air yards (6.8)

• Suspect defense

  • Surrendering 29.3 points per game- 6th most in NFL this season

  • Rank 28th in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, 24th in yards per play

  • Still generate tons of pressure and good against the run

    • 4th in pass rush win rate and 7th in run stop win rate

New York Giants

• Disappointing start to season, and defense has played large role

  • 30th in EPA/play, 23rd in yards per play

• Mostly struggling with defending the pass, but not great against run either

  • Have allowed 49.1% dropback success rate

  • Surrendering 11.4 yards per completion

  • 25th in EPA/rush

  • 5th in pass rush win rate, 20th in run stop win rate

• Have yet to make up for those struggles on offense

  • 14.3 points per game- 3rd fewest in NFL

  • 27th in EPA/play

  • Daniel Jones- 25th in CPOE and success rate

  • Mediocre offensive line- 19th in pass block win rate and 20th in pass rush win rate

• Enter matchup with rest advantage

  • Have not played since September 21st

What’s the Play?

The Seahawks have been the far better team through two weeks, so it comes as no surprise to see our model predict Seattle to cover the spread here. However, we are more concerned with the total, and believe the over is the best play.

New York’s secondary has proven to be vulnerable to the pass, but Seattle’s is far worse. Per TeamRankings, the Seahawks are surrendering 328 yards through the air per game, the highest amount in the NFL by nearly 30 yards. The defensive unit also ranks 28th in dropback EPA, so Daniel Jones is going to have a soft matchup which will likely lead to points for the Giants.

Geno Smith has proven to be a capable quarterback, and he should find plenty of ways to carve up a New York defense that ranks in the bottom ten of the NFL in many metrics. Our model gives the over a 56.85% chance to hit at its current value of 47.5 points, a probability we’re comfortable with taking.

The Play: Over 47.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends💰

• Seattle Seahawks- 2-1 overall this season, 5-4 as the away team since Geno Smith took over starting role

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Seattle Seahawks- Over is 2-1 overall this season with average point total of 58.33

• New York Giants- Over is 1-2 overall this season, average point total is still 47.0

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Seattle Seahawks- 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-1 as a favorite

• New York Giants- 0-3 ATS this season, 6-6 ATS as a home underdog since 2021

Below is a statistical comparison between the Seahawks and Giants on offense and defense.

What’s included?

• Money Line, Spread, and Over/Under Records

• Quarterback Stats

• Leading Rushers and Receivers

• Defense Stats

😬 Mac Jones benched against Cowboys. The New England Patriots made a quarterback change on Sunday, benching their starting quarterback Mac Jones in favor of Bailey Zappe. Jones had a challenging game, marked by a fumble returned for a touchdown and two interceptions, contributing to the team falling into a 31-3 deficit. Bailey Zappe, initially a fourth-round draft pick in 2022, didn’t impress either, completing 4 of 9 passes for 57 yards.

🤕 Pickett suffers knee injury in loss to Texans. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett was sidelined in their 30-6 defeat to the Houston Texans due to a knee injury. Pickett suffered the injury in the third quarter when sacked on a fourth down by Texans defensive end Jonathan Greenard, requiring assistance to leave the field. Pickett had completed 15 of 23 passes for 114 yards with an interception before leaving the game, with Mitchell Trubisky throwing for 18 yards in his place.

💪 Mack has record day in win over Raiders. Khalil Mack, the Chargers' edge rusher and former Raider, had a remarkable performance against his former team. Mack recorded six sacks in L.A.’s 24-17 victory, setting a new franchise record, with two of those sacks leading to fumbles. Mack had failed to record a sack in the first three weeks of the season, but his six sacks are the most by a player against his former team since sack statistics became official in 1982.

☘️Jrue Holiday traded to Boston Celtics. The Portland Trail Blazers have traded Jrue Holiday, an All-Star guard, to the Boston Celtics, intensifying the competition in the Eastern Conference. In exchange, the Celtics are sending center Robert Williams III and guard Malcolm Brogdon, along with 2024 and 2029 first-round picks to the Blazers. This move comes as the Trail Blazers continue to accumulate assets following their blockbuster trade involving Damian Lillard, and shows that Portland is all in on young guards Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.

⚾️MLB announces bracket and schedule for postseason. The 2023 MLB playoffs have arrived, capping off a season filled with surprises. This postseason marks the second iteration of the league's expanded 12-team format, featuring extra wild-card spots in both the American League and National League. The excitement begins with a busy Tuesday, featuring four wild-card games on ESPN, promising to match the thrill of last year's wild-card weekend.

🏈 AP poll stays the same at top. Georgia's grip on the No. 1 spot in The Associated Press college football poll weakened, with the Bulldogs garnering only 35 first-place votes out of a possible 62, although they maintained their streak at the top for 16 consecutive weeks. Michigan, ranked No. 2, received 12 first-place votes and 1,436 points, while Texas, at No. 3, received 10 first-place votes and 1,426 points, nearly overtaking the Wolverines. Ohio State held its position at No. 4 with one first-place vote, while Florida State, Penn State, and Washington, round out the top seven.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who holds the NFL record for most receptions in a single game with 21?

Question #2- Andy Reid has been in the coaching world since 1982, getting his start at what university as a graduate assistant?

Question #3- What former Olympic gold medalist and now reality TV star was selected by the Kansas City Kings in the 7th round of the 1977 NBA Draft?

Anyone know what has happened on October 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 2nd…

1983- Washington Redskins wide receiver Art Monk catches three passes for 59 yards in a 37-35 win over the Los Angeles Raiders. Monk’s stat line in the performance may have slipped through the cracks, but it marked the first of 183 consecutive games in which he caught at least one pass. His streak would end up an NFL record, that is until Jerry Rice took over the throne with 274.

2001- Chicago Cubs slugger Sammy Sosa becomes the first player in MLB history to record 60 home runs in three different seasons. Sosa launched the milestone homer off Cincinnati Reds pitcher Lance Davis, but the Cubs still came up short in a 5-4 defeat. He would finish his career with 609 home runs, the ninth most in MLB history.

2016- Vin Scully calls his final game for the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the San Francisco Giants, a bitter rival of the Dodgers, spoiled Scully’s sendoff, winning the game 7-1 in nine innings. Scully had been an announcer for the team for 67 years prior to his retirement, starting his career when the Dodgers were in Brooklyn and following them to the West Coast.

1. Brandon Marshall

2. Brigham Young University

3. Bruce Jenner