Big Saturday on Deck

Two Best Bets Today

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NBA Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • NHL Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

NFL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

NBA Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 10-4

Over/Under Predictions: 8-6

Spread Predictions: 7-6-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

NBA🏀

Houston Rockets star Alperen Sengun (Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

Four NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all four matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
Model Predicts- Bucks ML, UNDER 238.5, Rockets +6

The Milwaukee Bucks will wrap up a three-game road trip in Saturday, with the final stop coming in Houston, Texas to take on the Rockets.

Milwaukee enters tonight’s matchup with a 1-1 record on its current road trip, picking up a win over the San Antonio Spurs but falling short against the Indiana Pacers. The Bucks now sit at 25-10 for the season, while the Rockets sit one game above .500 at 17-16 following a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night.

This is the second game of a back-to-back set for Houston, but our model believes the Rockets can still keep things close. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Milwaukee Bucks
  • Mixed results on road trip

    • 1-1 overall. 12-point loss to Pacers, four-point win against Spurs

  • Defense is struggling despite being 7-3 in last 10 games

    • 117.2 Defensive Rating in that time

    • Have allowed opponents to score 119 points or more in seven of last ten games

  • Injuries- Jae Crowder (OUT)

Houston Rockets
  • Came up short against Timberwolves last night

    • Lost 122-95. Shot 40% overall and 38% from three

  • Defense and rebounding will be key to getting back in win column

    • Rank 4th in Defensive Rating (111.2) this season

    • Opponents shooting 45.1% overall and 35.4% from three

    • Out-rebounded 16-6 on offensive glass in last game vs Milwaukee despite having higher shooting splits

  • Injuries- Victor Oladipo, Tari Eason, and Dillon Brooks all questionable

What’s the Play?

Backing any team on a back-to-back in today’s NBA is a tough sell, but we agree with our model that Houston can keep this game close.

One thing Milwaukee can’t do is play defense, which opens up the door four Houston to pile on the points. These teams faced off back in December, a game in which Houston shot 53% overall and 41% from three compared to Milwaukee’s 50% and 36%, further highlighting the Rockets are more than capable of exposing this defense at all levels of the floor.

Additionally, Milwaukee tends to struggle in these spots, posting a 2-6 record against the spread when owning the rest advantage over its opponent (TeamRankings). We’ll back Houston to keep that trend going tonight in what should be a solid bounce back opportunity.

The Play: Rockets +6 (-110)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Boston Celtics- 27-7 overall this season, 10-7 as the away team

  • Houston Rockets- 17-16 overall this season, 14-6 as the home team

  • Houston Rockets- Under is 18-14-1 this season, 11-8-1 as the home team

  • Indiana Pacers- 20-15 against the spread (ATS) this season, 4-1 ATS as a home underdog

  • Houston Rockets- 19-12-2 ATS this season, 6-4 ATS as a home underdog

News Around the League

🪄 Banchero’s triple-double leads Magic to win over Nuggets. Paolo Banchero celebrated his inaugural triple-double, a pivotal performance in a remarkable comeback for the Orlando Magic against the Denver Nuggets. Despite being shorthanded and trailing by 18 points in the third quarter, Banchero's 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists, along with his clutch free throws, fueled the Magic's remarkable turnaround. The Nuggets, fatigued and faltering defensively, lost momentum in the third quarter, despite strong performances from Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr.

👑 Kings take name out of Pascal Siakam rumors. The Sacramento Kings have halted their pursuit of Toronto Raptors' Pascal Siakam. Team officials announced retracting their serious interest reported earlier in a potential trade deal before the NBA's Feb. 8 trade deadline. Siakam, currently in the final year of a substantial four-year, $136-million contract, maintains strong statistics, averaging 22.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game during his eighth season with the Raptors.

NHL🏒

Minnesota Wild goalie Marc-Andre Fleury (David Berding/Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

12 NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 12 of tonight’s matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Minnesota Wild @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Model Predicts- Wild ML, OVER 6, Blue Jackets +1.5

The Minnesota Wild will hit the road for just one game on Saturday, making the journey to Columbus, Ohio to battle the Blue Jackets.

The Wild enter tonight’s matchup in the midst of a four-game losing skid, but still own a solid 9-7 record since the start of December. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have found slightly more success recently, most recently beating the Flyers in overtime, but still own a poor 13-19-8 record for the season.

Minnesota has looked horrible over its last few games, but our model still gives the Wild a huge edge in today’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Minnesota Wild
  • Struggling to find the win column after digging themselves out of massive hole

    • 0-4 in last four games with -8 goal differential

    • Began season with 5-10-4 record. Have gone 11-7 since and were 11-3 before losing streak

  • One of best defenses in NHL. over the last month

    • Rank 2nd in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations since December 1st

    • Allowing just 9.2 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 (3rd fewest in NHL)

  • Expected goalie- Marc-Andre Fleury

    • .928 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 67th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -4.1

Sacramento Kings
  • Stuck in lots of one-goal games

    • Five of last seven games have gone to overtime

    • 2-2-3 record in that stretch

  • One of worst defenses in NHL

    • Rank 30th in xGA/60 and 22nd in HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • Expected goalie- Elvis Merzlikins

    • .907 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 44th in GSAx (+1.0)

What’s the Play?

Minnesota is in a slump, but we agree with our model that this is a great spot to find the win column again.

At the end of the day, the Wild are worlds ahead of the Blue Jackets on the defensive end, with the only glaring issue being Minnesota’s struggles stopping the power play. Other than that, the Wild have the advantage on that end of the ice, as the matchup in net is rather even today.

Columbus keeps things close, but as we’ve seen recently the Blue Jackets just don’t have the talent to consistently win those games. We’ll take the Wild here in a buy-low spot.

The Play: Wild ML (-130)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • New York Rangers- 26-10-1 overall this season, 13-5-1 as the away team

  • Carolina Hurricanes- 22-13-4 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games

  • Vancouver Canucks- Over is 22-14-2 this season with average total of 6.34

  • New Jersey Devils- Over is 23-13-1 this season with average total of 7.05

  • Columbus Blue Jackets- Puck line is 25-15 this season

News Around the League

🤕 Bedard injured in loss to Devils. Chicago Blackhawks' star Connor Bedard left Friday’s game in the first period following a hit by Brendan Smith and did not return for the remainder of the match. Adding to Bedard's departure, Nick Foligno also exited the game after a fight with Smith in the second period. Bedard, who leads rookies in goals, assists, and points with 15 goals and 18 assists in 39 games, earned his first All-Star selection prior to this incident, scheduled for Feb. 1-3 in Toronto.

Trivia Section🧠

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What team did Geno Smith play for prior to his current stint with the Seattle Seahawks?

Question #2- Two active NBA players played college basketball in the Atlantic Sun Conference. One of those players is Garrison Matthews, but who is the other?

Question #3- Two UCLA pitchers were selected in the top-three of the 2011 MLB Draft. One player is Gerrit Cole, but who is the other?

On This Day in History🗓

Former Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston (Doug Benc/AP)

Anyone know what has happened on January 6th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On January 6th…

1995- Atlanta Hawks coach Lenny Wilkins wins his 939th career game. The win made Wilkins the winningest coach in NBA history, passing Red Auerbach on the all-time list. Wilkins would end his coaching career with 1,332 wins, which currently ranks third in NBA history behind Gregg Popovich and Don Nelson.

1998- Don Sutton is selected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Sutton began his legendary career with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1966, and would also suit up for the Astros, Brewers, Athletics, and Angels. He would end his career with a stellar 3.26 ERA and 3,574 strikeouts, the latter of which ranks 7th in MLB history.

2014- The Florida State Seminoles defeat the Auburn Tigers in the BCS National Championship game. Florida State won the game 34-31, taking the lead with just 13 seconds left in the game after a touchdown from wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. Jameis Winston, who threw for 237 yards and two touchdowns, was named offensive MVP for the game.

Trivia Answers

  1. Los Angeles Chargers

  2. Torrey Craig

  3. Trevor Bauer