In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter sponsored by SportSense Premium…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-6

Over/Under Predictions: 8-6

Spread Predictions: 8-5-1

Featured Matchup: 0-0-1

Money Line Predictions: 1-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-2

Puck Line Predictions: 3-0

Featured Matchup: 0-0

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Yesterday’s player props went 2-1 for an ROI of 25.64%, and we will be releasing a model-backed Same Game Parlay for Thursday Night Football along with more NBA Player Props later today. Join Premium today! ⬇️ 

Another Thursday has come, and another brutal prime time game is set to take place as the Carolina Panthers make the trip north to the Windy City to take on the Bears. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchup are below.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Model Predicts- Bears ML, OVER 38.5, Panthers +3

The Carolina Panthers will hit the road this week to take on the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.

Carolina enters Week 10 tied for the worst record in football at 1-7 following yet another loss last week at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts. However, Chicago isn’t too far ahead of Carolina, entering this week at 2-7.

Tonight’s quarterback battle features rookies Bryce Young and Tyson Bagent, both of whom are turnover prone, and our model expects Bagent and the Bears to pick up the win. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for Thursday Night Football.

Carolina Panthers

• Coming off loss to Colts

  • Lost 27-13, but out-played Indy

  • 275 total yards to Colts’ 198. Two pick sixes by Indy broke the game open

• Defense’s weak point is the run. Average against the pass

  • Rank 32nd in EPA/rush, 25th in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.4)

  • 17th in EPA/dropback, 10th in pass rush win rate

  • Riddled with injuries- Jeremy Chinn and Jaycee Horn still on IR, CJ Henderson and Brian Burns OUT, Vonn Bell and Xavier Woods questionable

Chicago Bears

• Still without Justin Fields. Means Tyson Bagent will start

  • Has thrown six interceptions and fumbled four times in four games this season

  • 67.3% completion %. 174.3 pass yards per game

• Offense is most effective on ground

  • Rank in top-6 in EPA/rush and rush success rate

  • Run ball on 46.74% of plays. Up to 48.47% with Bagent as starting quarterback

• Pass defense is non-existent

  • 31st in EPA/dropback and dropback success rate

  • Average 1.1 sacks per game. 0.3 per game over last three games

What’s the Play?

Two rookie quarterbacks. One defense that can’t stop the run. One defense that can’t stop the pass. This is going to be a mess, but we agree with our model that Carolina can cover the spread.

It’s hard to justify Chicago being a field goal favorite against any opponent with Bagent at the helm. As we saw last week against New Orleans, his vulnerability to turnovers can flip the script at any moment, and the recent spike in rushing attempts makes it clear that the Bears want to keep the ball out of his hands.

Bryce Young has the same turnover problems, but Carolina out-played Indianapolis last week, and a Panthers offense that throws the ball on more than 63% of plays should eat up this Bears defense.

The Play: Panthers +3 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Bears- 2-7 overall this season, 1-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Bears- Over is 6-3 overall this season with average total of 47.78 points

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Carolina Panthers- 1-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season

🪟 Vikings open practice window for Justin Jefferson. The Minnesota Vikings are preparing to bring Justin Jefferson back from his injury by designating him to return from injured reserve. Although Jefferson will begin practicing again, it's unlikely he will be able to play in the upcoming game against the New Orleans Saints, as reported separately by Ian Rapoport. Despite missing the last four weeks, Jefferson maintains his lead in receiving yards for the team with 571, and the Vikings went a perfect 4-0 without their star receiver.

🇩🇪 Jackson not traveling with Patriots to Germany. The anticipated reunion of J.C. Jackson with the New England Patriots has taken a disappointing turn, as he is not expected to join the team for their game against the Indianapolis Colts in Germany. This decision, due to personal reasons, follows concerns about his reliability and aims to provide a mental reset, with the Patriots having a bye week in Week 11. Jackson, who was acquired by the Patriots to bolster their secondary, has struggled to recapture his form, allowing multiple catches, touchdowns, and penalties in his five games with the team.

The NBA has given us a light Thursday after yesterday’s 14-game slate. Our model’s predictions for today’s matchups can be found below.

Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic

Model Predicts- Hawks ML, UNDER 232.5, Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic will take their talents south of the border to Mexico City on Thursday, part of the 2023 NBA Global Games.

Both teams enter tonight’s matchup neck and neck in the Eastern Conference, boasting a 4-3 record through seven games. Atlanta most recently lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder, while Orlando came up short to the Dallas Mavericks.

Not much has separated these teams in the early going, but key injuries on the Magic roster have tipped the scales in Atlanta’s favor, at least in the eyes of our model. Let’s dive into why that is.

Atlanta Hawks

• Have been extremely effective on offensive end this season

  • Rank 4th in Offensive Rating (117.4)

  • Shooting efficiently- 47.2% from the floor overall. Dominating paint with 54.3 points per game (6th most in NBA)

• Team only goes about nine players deep, but most can score

  • Eight of nine players consistently in rotation average at least 10.7 points per game

  • Rank 11th in bench points per game (39.0)

• Tend to struggle defensively

  • Opponents shooting 48.3% overall and 36.0% from three (NBA.com)

Orlando Magic

• Young team that appears to be done with rebuild

  • Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are franchise cornerstones

  • Currently sit in 6th in the Eastern Conference and could easily hold that position

• Defense has been key to early season success

  • Tied with Boston for 3rd best Defensive Rating (105.6)

  • Opponents shooting 46.1% the from the floor overall and 34.4% from three

• Depth has taken a hit recently

  • Rank 3rd in bench points per game

  • Will be without Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris tonight. Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac, and Kevon Harris are questionable

What’s the Play?

There isn’t much separating Atlanta and Orlando on paper at the moment, but we agree with our model that Atlanta can win and cover the three-point spread tonight.

Orlando has had a good start to the season, but some of its numbers are inflated. For example, Orlando’s wins have come against the Rockets, Trail Blazers, Jazz, and Lakers. Only one of those teams, Houston, ranks in the top-10 in Offensive Rating, while Portland and L.A. rank in the bottom three of the NBA in that category this season.

Meanwhile, we’ve already seen Atlanta beat potential playoff teams in Minnesota and New Orleans, as well as Milwaukee, and has the depth advanatage today due to Orlando’s injuries. We’ll back Atlanta here.

The Play: Hawks -3 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Milwaukee Bucks- 5-2 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Atlanta Hawks- 4-3 overall this season, 2-2 on the road

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Orlando Magic- Under is 5-1-1 this season, highest win percentage in NBA

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Atlanta Hawks- 3-4 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-2 ATS on the road

🤕 Jamal Murray out 3-4 weeks. Denver Nuggets' star player Jamal Murray is expected to remain sidelined for the rest of the month due to a right hamstring strain. Denver is taking a cautious approach to ensure a full recovery, with sources suggesting that Murray may need three to four weeks to properly heal before returning to action. Murray sustained the injury during a game against the Chicago Bulls, and while he's missed three games so far, the Nuggets remain 8-1 this season.

🔔 76ers win sixth consecutive game. The Philadelphia 76ers secured their sixth consecutive victory by defeating the Boston Celtics 106-103 on Wednesday. Joel Embiid unsurprisingly led the way, contributing 27 points and 10 rebounds, while Tyrese Maxey added 25 points. The 76ers, now the sole 6-1 team in the Eastern Conference, have been crowned as the early team to beat in the East, but still have plenty of work to do with 75 games left to play.

The NHL is back into the swing of things today, with 11 games scheduled to take place. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Los Angeles Kings

Model Predicts- Kings ML, UNDER 6.5, Penguins +1.5

The Pittsburgh Penguins will end their West Coast road trip on Thursday with a stop in Los Angeles to take on the Kings.

Pittsburgh enters tonight’s matchup with a 5-6-0 record, but is 2-0 in its last two games after defeating the Sharks and Ducks. Meanwhile, L.A. owns a stellar 8-2-2 record and recently knocked off the defending Stanley Cup Champions last night.

Los Angeles has the edge on paper, but this being the second-leg of a back-to-back could make things interesting. Let’s take a look at how our model feels about this game and see its best bet.

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Appear back on track after two-game win streak

  • +10 goal differential. Allowed just three goals in those two games

  • Most of damage done against one win Sharks team

• 10-goal performance against Sharks is inflating offensive metrics

  • Scored eight goals in 5-on-5. Now rank 2nd in GF/60 in those situations (3.26)

  • GF/60 sat at 2.89 prior to that performance

• Questions of who starting goalie will be

  • Either Tristan Jarry or Magnus Hellberg

    • Both own GSAx above 0

Los Angeles Kings

• One of best defenses in NHL this season

  • Rank fifth in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5 with 2.33

  • Surrender 8.32 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 (fewest in NHL)

• Offense has also been elite, but due for regression

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 of 3.94- 1st in NHL

  • However, xGF/60 in same situations sits at 2.99

• Expected goalie- Pheonix Copley

  • Ranks last in NHL in Save % (.714), 68th in GSAx (-5.7)

What’s the Play?

On paper this looks like it is going to be a high-scoring game, but getting the under at plus money is a play we can’t pass up here.

Copley has been bad in net, but the current sample size we have for him is just 49 shots. Last season Copley was solid in net, posting a +4.7 GSAx and .911 Save % in 5-on-5 situations, so we shouldn’t expect him to get lit up every time he’s out on the ice.

Additionally, both Pittsburgh and Los Angeles are due for regression offensively, and that can easily happen today with both defenses ranking in the top-10 in shots on goal allowed per game.

The Play: Under 6.5 (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Bruins- 10-1-1 overall this season, 5-0-1 as the home team

• Vancouver Canucks- 9-2-1 overall this season, 4-2-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Pittsburgh Penguins- Under is 6-4-1 this season with average total of 6.27. Average total per game drops to 5.70 if 12-goal game with Sharks is removed

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Minnesota Wild- Puck line is 7-5 this season

🔄 Wild make trades to improve struggling defense. The Minnesota Wild addressed their defensive concerns by acquiring defenseman Zach Bogosian from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Minnesota also traded defenseman Calen Addison to the San Jose Sharks for prospect forward Adam Raska and a 2026 fifth-round draft pick. The Wild, currently fifth in the league in goals scored but allowing the second-most goals, now have more options for configuring their bottom pairing and improving their penalty kill, which ranks last in the NHL.

⛸️ Eberle suffers skate blade injury at practice. Seattle Kraken winger Jordan Eberle suffered a leg injury when cut by a skate blade after Jaden Schwartz lost balance and stepped on a puck on Wednesday. Kraken general manager Ron Francis mentioned Eberle's "deep cut" near his quad muscle, but expressed relief that the injury may not be serious Eberle's injury prompted the Kraken to call up prospect forwards Shane Wright and Ryan Winterton, while the incident follows discussions on player safety in hockey.