In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-2

Over/Under Predictions: 3-3

Puck Line Predictions: 3-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-3

Over/Under Predictions: 1-2

Run Line Predictions: 3-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place tonight, with the Denver Broncos traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Royals

Model Predicts- Chiefs ML, OVER 47.5, Broncos +10.5

The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs will square off in an AFC West battle on Thursday Night Football.

Denver has had a miserable season up to this point, entering tonight having won just one game. Meanwhile, Kansas City sits at 4-1 and appears to be good enough to defend last season’s Super Bowl title.

There’s no question that the Chiefs are the better team here, but our model believes that a 10.5-point spread is just a bit too large. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Denver Broncos

• Defense is historically bad

  • Rank 32nd in EPA/Play and yards per play (7.0)

  • Pass defense is nonexistent- 29th in pass rush win rate, 53.7% opponent dropback success rate

  • 29th in pass rush win rate, 30th in run stop win rate

  • Allowed at least 28 points in last 4 games

• Offense struggling to find identity

  • Run ball on 37.32% of plays, but have decent passing game

    • 13th in EPA per dropback, 12th in dropback success rate

    • Russell Wilson- 2nd in CPOE, 8th in adjusted EPA/play. 11 TDs and 2 INTs this season

Kansas City Chiefs

• Only loss came in Week 1 to Detroit

• Offense has moved ball down field with ease

  • 8th in yards per play (5.8)

  • Mahomes has been relatively conservative- ranks 25th in air yards (7.2)

  • Run ball on 42% of plays, average 9th most yards per carry (4.5)

• Still some questions on defense, but has been good overall

  • 4th best opponent success rate (39.9%)

  • Top 10 in yards per play (4.9)

  • Rank 30th in pass rush win rate, 26th in run stop win rate

What’s the Play?

You’re playing with fire anytime you bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially while he will face the worst defense in the NFL on his home field. However, we are going to roll with Denver on the spread here.

The Denver offense isn’t great, but it is more than capable of putting points on the board. Russell Wilson has been solid while throwing the ball, and the Chiefs’ lackluster pass rush will give him plenty of time to operate and continue to move this offense down the field.

Outside of their 50-point loss to Miami, the Broncos have kept every game inside 10.5 points, and Mahomes is just 10-13-1 against the spread as a double-digit favorite. It’s not pretty, but we’ll say a prayer and take Denver.

The Play: Broncos +10.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Kansas City Chiefs- 4-1 overall this season, 19-4 as a home favorite since 2021

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Denver Broncos- Over is 4-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes is 10-13-1 against the spread (ATS) as a double-digit favorite

🤕 Devon Achane placed on IR. The Miami Dolphins have decided to place rookie running back De'Von Achane on injured reserve due to a knee injury sustained in their win against the New York Giants. Coach Mike McDaniel expressed optimism that it's not a severe one, and expects Achane to return later in the season. In his absence, the team anticipates the return of Jeff Wilson Jr., who is set to boost Miami's top-ranked rushing offense.

😬 Watson still sidelined with shoulder injury. The Cleveland Browns are facing uncertainty with Deshaun Watson's shoulder injury as he missed practice again on Wednesday. Watson's status for the upcoming game against the undefeated San Francisco 49ers is in question, and coach Kevin Stefanski provided few details about the injury. In the event Watson cannot play, veteran quarterback P.J. Walker will step in fresh off the practice squad.

The NHL season continues to chug along, with several teams kicking off their season tonight. Our model predictions for tonight’s matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Model Predicts- Flyers ML, UNDER 6.5, Flyers +1.5

The Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets will begin their seasons on Thursday night in Ohio.

Philadelphia enters this one following a season in which it finished with a 31-38-13 record, while Columbus ended last season at 25-48-9. Those records were the two worst in the Metropolitan division.

This isn’t the prettiest matchup on paper, but our model has identified some value on Philadelphia as a road underdog. Let’s dive into why that is.

Philadelphia Flyers

• Offense found little success in 2023

  • Ranked 24th in GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations, generated 10th fewest high danger scoring chances in same situations

  • -55 goal differential

• Defense wasn’t horrible

  • Ranked 18th in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5

  • Number improved to 1.81 in 6 preseason games this season

• Starting goalie- Carter Hart

  • Ranked 15th in Goals Saved Above expected (GSAx) last season, per MoneyPuck

  • .922 Save % and .840 High Danger Save % in 2022-23 (Natural Stat Trick)

Columbus Blue Jackets

• Bottom 2 defense in league last season

  • 32nd in GA/60 (3.43) and 30th in high danger chances against per 60 minutes (13.35)

  • Only team remotely close to being worse was Anaheim

  • Added Ivan Provorov to boost group

• Offense has some big names, but performed poorly last season

  • 2.13 GF/60 in 5-on-5

  • Abysmal -116 goal differential

• Starting goalie- Elvis Merzlikins

  • Ranked 107th out of 107 in GSAx (-25.9) last season

  • .884 Save % and .747 High Danger Save % in 2022-23

What’s the Play?

There is certainly nothing pretty about this one, but we feel comfortable taking a swing on the Flyers at plus money.

The matchup in net tips the scales incredibly far in the Flyers’ direction here. Merzlikins had no defense in front of him last season so we should cut him some slack, but his inability to stop a puck in close sets puts a healthy Flyers offense in a position to find the back of the net.

Both teams’ underlying numbers improved in the preseason, and Columbus stealing Ivan Provorov from Philadelphia helps the defense, but the skill gap between the pipes in this matchup is hard to ignore. We’ll back the Flyers tonight.

The Play: Flyers ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Seattle Kraken- 26-11-4 on road last season, 0-1 this season

• Minnesota Wild- 25-13-4 at home last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Red Wings- Under was 41-38-3 last season with average total of 6.33

• Buffalo Sabres- Over was 45-32-5 last season with average total of 7.27 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line was 43-39 last season, 1-0 this season as a favorite

💰Power signs extension with Sabres. The Buffalo Sabres made a significant move by signing defenseman Owen Power to a seven-year contract extension worth $8.35 million per year. The extension follows the recent signing of fellow defenseman Rasmus Dahlin to an eight-year deal worth $11 million annually, showing Buffalo’s commitment to its defense. These contracts will take effect at the start of the 2024-25 season, marking a pivotal time for the Sabres as they aim to build a competitive team.

🧢 Matthews records hat trick in shootout win. Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews saved the day in his team’s 6-5 victory over the Montreal Canadiens last night, recording his 8th hat trick of his career. His first goal came in the second period, and the final two came with just under five minutes left to play in regulation. The scores were also the 300th, 301st, and 302nd career goals for Matthews, further showing how dominant he has been on the ice in recent years.

There is just one MLB game scheduled to take place, with that game being Game 4 of the NLDS between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Braves ML, UNDER 9, Phillies +1.5

The Atlanta Braves will attempt to keep their season alive later today as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS.

Atlanta finds itself down 2-1 in the series, and would have already been sent home had it not been for a four-run comeback in the late stages of Game 2. Their ace, Spencer Strider, will take the mound, but he has already suffered a loss in this series.

Our model believes that the Braves will force a do-or-die Game 5, but it will certainly not be easy. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Atlanta Braves

• Offense has cooled off significantly in postseason

  • Had five days off in between the end of the regular season and series with Phillies

  • Ranked 2nd in wRC+ (124), 12th in BABIP (.303), and 2nd in OPS (.843) from Sep. 1st to Oct. 1st

  • Have seen those numbers fall to 45, .262, and .545, respectively, in postseason

• Starting pitcher- Spencer Strider (20-5 record, 3.86 ERA)

  • Solid outing in Game 1- 7.0 innings, 1 earned run

  • Now owns 2.14 ERA in last 21.0 innings against Philly

  • High strikeout rate (38.6%), but can’t keep balls on ground (34.9% ground ball rate)

Philadelphia Phillies

• Offense is as hot as it gets

  • 131 wRC+, .321 BABIP, and .869 OPS in five postseason games (FanGraphs)

  • Own +19 run differential in postseason

• Doing tons of damage with deep ball, but have one small concern

  • 10 homers in 5 games. Hit 6 last night alone

  • 26.1% strikeout rate- 3rd highest among playoff teams

• Starting pitcher- Ranger Suárez (4-6 record, 4.18 ERA)

  • Minimizes hard contact- ranks in top 30% in hard hit rate and avg. exit velocity

  • Keeps ball on ground- 48.8% ground ball rate

  • 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 9.2 innings against Atlanta this season

What’s the Play?

It’s impossible to go against the Phillies right now, and given that our model only projects the Braves as -131 favorites, we’ll back Philadelphia on the run line here.

Suárez has been great against Atlanta this season, which should continue today as the Braves offense has gone ice cold. Even if things go south, Suárez will give way to a bullpen that owns a 1.84 ERA and 3.53 FIP in the postseason.

There is no question that Strider is elite, but his struggles with keeping the ball on the ground could not come at a worse time, as the Phillies have done nothing besides send baseball’s into the stands. We’ll take Philly on the run line here.

The Play: Phillies +1.5 (-135)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Atlanta Braves- 104-58 overall this season, 52-29 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under was 76-74-12 in regular season, 3-2 in postseason

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Phillies- Run line is 28-25 as an underdog this season (including postseason)

🎉 Astros win 7th straight ALDS. Jose Abreu's two-run homer in the fourth inning propelled the Houston Astros to a 3-2 win over the Minnesota Twins in Game 4 of their AL Division Series, securing their seventh consecutive appearance in the AL Championship Series. Jose Urquidy delivered a solid postseason start for the Astros, with the bullpen holding the Twins in check. The Astros will now face the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of the ALCS, with Justin Verlander expected to start.

🤯 Bryce Harper, Phillies put on offensive clinic in Game 2. Bryce Harper responded to comments made by Atlanta Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia after Game 2 of the National League Division Series by hitting two home runs in Game 3, leading his team to a 10-2 victory. Harper's homers were part of a six-homer barrage by the Phillies, including two by Nick Castellanos, one by Trea Turner, and one by Brandon Marsh. The Phillies are now one game away from winning their second consecutive NLDS, and if successful will face the Arizona Diamondbacks.