In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NHL and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-2 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 6-6

Over/Under Predictions: 7-4-1

Puck Line Predictions: 10-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Run Line Predictions: 2-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

After 12 NHL games yesterday, the league has given us just two games to look at on Friday. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

New Jersey Devils @ New York Islanders

Model Predicts- Islanders ML, OVER 6, Islanders +1.5

The New Jersey Devils will make the short journey to Long Island to faceoff against the New York Islanders on Friday night.

New Jersey enters this matchup at 1-1-1, picking up a win against the Red Wings in their season opener but failing to win a game since. Meanwhile, the Islanders are a perfect 2-0-0 after wins over the Sabres and Coyotes.

Our model doesn’t give either team much of an edge here, but it does believe that this game has the makings of a high-scoring contest. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

New Jersey Devils

• Slow starts have put this team in early season hole

  • Have yet to score a goal in first period

  • Have played from behind in every game as a result

• Offense is due to see improvement, but defense could hit down trend

  • Scoring 1.37 goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) in 5-on-5 situations, but xGF/60 in 5-on-5 sits at 2.96 (Natural Stat Trick)

  • Goals Against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 is 2.29, but xGA/60 in 5-on-5 is 2.96

• Starting goalie- Vitek Vanecek

  • .917 Save % in 5-on-5 is decent, but .556 High Danger Save % is abysmal

  • +0.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), per MoneyPuck

New York Islanders

• Defense is responsible for undefeated start

  • Own 1.22 GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • Allowing just 6.09 high danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

• However, have had easy schedule up to this point

  • Faced Sabres and Coyotes to begin season

  • Sabres rank 31st in xGF/60 in 5-on-5, while Arizona ranks 16th

  • Today’s opponent, the Devils, rank 7th

• Starting goalie- Ilya Sorokin

  • 5-on-5 situations- .949 Save %, .714 High Danger Save %

  • +1.3 GSAx through two games

  • Surrendered 8 goals against Devils in two preseason games

What’s the Play?

The Islanders defense has been great on paper, but facing two offenses that rank in the bottom half of the league in xGF/60 in 5-on-5 situations will do that. New Jersey hasn’t been impressive on that end either, so we’ll back the over in this spot.

The key here is both Vanecek’s and Sorokin’s struggles in high danger scoring situations. Neither one has stopped the puck at a rate higher than 72% in those situations this season, which will likely lead to several goals in this game from both teams.

Both New Jersey and New York are in for positive regression on offense, the Devils’ defense has been picked apart so far, and the Islanders’ defense hasn’t faced an offense like Devils’. We expect both offenses to find the back of the net enough to take this total above 6.

The Play: Over 6 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Islanders- 2-0-0 overall this season, 2-0-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Calgary Flames- Over is 3-1-0 this season with average total of 6.75 goals

• New Jersey Devils- Over is 3-0-0 this season with average total of 7.00

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Columbus Blue Jackets- Puck line is 1-2 overall this season

📈 Interest in Patrick Kane is on the rise. The Buffalo Sabres and Florida Panthers are showing interest in signing free-agent forward Patrick Kane. Kane, who is currently recovering from hip resurfacing surgery, is likely to start considering offers in early November. The Sabres, $8.8 million in cap space, are well-positioned to pursue Kane, while the Panthers have approximately $6 million in flexibility due to Aaron Ekblad's long-term injury.

📝 Anderson to become liaison for Sabres. Former NHL goaltender Craig Anderson, who concluded his 20-season career in the NHL with the Buffalo Sabres in April, has taken on a unique role as a "hockey liaison" for his former team. This part-time position, distinct from coaching or executive roles, will see Anderson offering valuable insights, guidance, and support to both players and the coaching staff. Sabres General Manager Kevyn Adams expressed the team's appreciation for Anderson's experience and contributions during his 20-year career, and it was recently announced that he will officially retire as a member of the Ottawa Senators.

There are two MLB games scheduled to take place today, with those matchups featuring the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, as well as the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, UNDER 9.5, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks will square off in Game 4 of the NLCS on Friday.

Philadelphia went up two games to none in the series, but came up short yesterday following a 2-1 victory for Arizona. The series now sits at 2-1 in favor of the Phillies, making Game 4 a crucial one.

Our model hasn’t given either one of these teams much of an edge in this series, but that has changed today as it now sees value on the Phillies. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Offense was shut down yesterday for first time in postseason

  • Scored one run, which came on a past ball

  • Only 3 hits and 3 walks, struck out 13 times

• Still the best offense remaining in postseason

  • Own highest wRC+ (133), BABIP (.307), and OPS (.882) amongst the remaining teams

  • Still 7-2 overall in postseason with +32 run differential

• Starting pitcher- Cristopher Sánchez

  • Has not pitched since September 30th

  • Tremendous control and deceiving- Ranks in top 3% of MLB in walk rate (4.0%) and chase rate (34.8%)

  • Ranks in top 5% of MLB in ground ball rate (57.7%)

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Finally found win column in NLCS in Game 3

  • Scored 2 runs on 9 hits

  • Could have done more damage- left 10 runners stranded on base

• Offense is still struggling in series

  • Have been outscored 16-5 through 3 games

  • Have posted 32 wRC+, .254 BABIP, .496 OPS, and 31.1% strikeout rate in NLCS, per FanGraphs

• Starting pitcher- Joe Mantiply

  • Relief pitcher. Likely only going 1 inning

  • Struggled against Philly this year- allowed 3 runs in 0.1 innings in Game 2, 4 runs in 3.0 innings back on June 13th

  • Will give way to bullpen that owns .325 BABIP, 3.41 ERA, and 4.23 xFIP in postseason

What’s the Play?

This is the first time in this series that our model has given a significant edge to the Phillies, and we think now is a good time to take advantage of it.

Arizona is in the NLCS because of their power hitting in the Wild Card and NLDS, launching 13 homers in five games. However, Arizona has only hit one home run in this series and the offense has struggled because of it, and Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sánchez has allowed just 1.12 home runs per 9 innings over his last 24.1 innings. A sudden change in that department is unlikely.

The Phillies have the better offense and have the advantage on the mound today, as they have proven they can jump on Mantiply early and will then face a bullpen that has given up hits left and right in the postseason. Brandon Pfaadt pitched the game of his life yesterday and Philly still lost by just one run, so we’ll back them on the money line here today in a bounce back spot.

The Play: Phillies ML (-135)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 7-2 overall in postseason, 39-34 this season when coming off a loss (including playoffs)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 49-29-6 at home this season (including playoffs), 2-1 at home in postseason with average total of 11.33

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 6-2 overall in postseason

💥 Ketel Marte walks off Game 3 in Arizona. The Arizona Diamondbacks relied on their star hitter, Ketel Marte, to secure a walk-off victory against the Philadelphia Phillies in a crucial Game 3 of the NLCS. With the score tied at 1-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Marte capitalized on Phillies closer Craig Kimbrel's struggles, delivering Arizona's third-ever postseason walk-off win. The Diamondbacks now trail the series 2-1, with Games 4 and 5 scheduled at Chase Field.

💪 Astros tie series with Rangers. The Houston Astros leveled the score with a 10-3 victory over the Texas Rangers in Game 4 of the ALCS on Thursday. Texas made a push with three runs in the third inning to tie the game, but Houston quickly responded with José Abreu's three-run home run and Yordan Alvarez's tie-breaking sacrifice fly. Houston would go on to shutout Texas the rest of the way, setting up a pivotal Game 5 on Friday evening.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is the only “Mr. Irrelevant” to throw a touchdown pass in an NFL regular season game?

Question #2 Julio Jones has signed with three NFL teams following his ten-year stint with the Falcons. The Philadelphia Eagles is one of those teams, but what were the other two?

Question #3- Prior to becoming the head basketball coach at the University of North Carolina, Roy Williams coached at what current Big 12 school from 1988-2003?

Anyone know what has happened on October 20th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 20th…

1963- NFL legend Jim Brown sets the single-season rushing record with 1,863 yards. Brown’s record would stand until the 1973 season, the year that O.J. Simpson ran for 2,003 yards. Brown would end his career with 12,312 rushing yards, which currently ranks 12th on the all-time list.

1981- The first NBA game is played at Meadowlands Arena in New Jersey. The New Jersey Nets took on the New York Knicks in the arena’s NBA debut, with the Knicks taking home a 103-99 win. The arena would serve as the home to the Nets until 2010, and was also the home arena for the New Jersey Devils and Seton Hall University until 2007.

1996- Atlanta Braves legend Andruw Jones becomes the youngest player in MLB history to homer in the World Series. Jones accomplished the feat at just 19 years and 180 days old, besting Mickey Mantle’s record of 20 years and 362 days. The homer would play a large role in Atlanta’s 12-1 victory that day, as it gave the Braves an early 1-0 series lead over the Yankees.

1. Brock Purdy

2. Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3. Kansas