In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, August 2, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

🎉 The NFL preseason officially kicks off tonight. The NFL regular season is just around the corner, and the preseason is set to begin tonight in Canton, Ohio. The New York Jets, who last played in Canton in 1992, will take on the Cleveland Browns, who last played in Canton in 1999, in the annual Hall of Fame Game at 8 PM ET, marking the start of the NFL’s 104th season in the city where the league was born. Nine NFL players will be enshrined into the Pro Football hall of Fame in the days following the game, including Browns great Joe Thomas and Jets legends Joe Klecko and Darrelle Revis.

🤕 Cooper Kupp sidelined with hamstring injury. Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp reportedly suffered a hamstring injury at practice on Tuesday, and as a result could miss the next several weeks of training camp. According to Adam Schefter, Kupp walked off the field on his own before having an MRI, and the Rams will use an abundance of caution moving forward. Kupp missed the second half of last season after suffering a high-ankle sprain, but entered this season’s training camp fully healthy.

🩼 Calvin Ridley limited due to toe injury. Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley will be limited in training camp due to what the team is calling a “sore toe”. Ridley left practice early on Tuesday, but Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that the team was just being cautious and that Ridley is “Just sore. He’ll be fine.” Ridley, who was suspended for all of last season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy, has reportedly been the star of the show at Jacksonville’s training camp, and should provide the Jags with a huge boost on offense once healthy.

There are 11 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for all 11 matchups. Our model predictions can be seen below.

New York Mets @ Kansas City Royals

Model Predicts- Mets ML, OVER 9, Lakers +1.5

The New York Mets and Kansas City Royals will cap off a three-game series this afternoon in Kansas City.

Surprisingly, Kansas City owns full control of this series, winning Games 1 and 2 and posting a +5 run differential in that span of time. However, the Royals are still an abysmal 34-75 for the season, the second worst record in baseball.

New York shifted its roster rather significantly leading up to the trade deadline, a major reason why the Mets have yet to find the win column since the deadline passed. Will we see New York change that trend today like our model says, or can Kansas City pull off the sweep at home?

New York Mets

Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Mark Canha, and Tommy Pham were some of the big names to be shipped out of New York over the last several days, a sign that the Mets franchise is taking its foot off the gas after entering the season with the highest payroll in the major leagues.

The boatloads of money that was spent clearly didn’t pay off. New York now sits in fourth place in the NL East with a 50-57 record, and the fire sale may only make that winning percentage slip even further in the final 55 games of the regular season.

However, the Mets are left with a solid group of bats in the lineup, one that includes Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and potentially Starling Marte, and several metrics indicate that New York has a more than capable offense still.

According to FanGraphs, New York owns the ninth-best wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, which they will have the good fortune of facing this afternoon with Brady Singer. That number comes in at 107, and in July alone we saw New York’s wRC+ against righties spike to 128, the second-highest mark in baseball.

Even with that spike, New York posted a .274 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), showing that they have been rather unlucky while making contact. Luckily, Kansas City ranks in the bottom ten in defensive runs saved this season, a sign of a weak fielding team.

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals were in a tight race with the Oakland Athletics for the worst record in baseball, that is until the Royals ripped off a five-game win streak that began on July 28th, creating some separation in the standings.

The five-game win streak has been highlighted by tremendous improvements at the plate, with Kansas City posting a 131 wRC+, .350 BABIP, and .854 OPS. The Royals rank in the top five of the MLB in all three categories in that time, with those numbers leading to a +12 run differential.

That offense is likely going to have to stay hot this afternoon with Brady Singer (6-8 record, 5.46 ERA) set to take the mound as today’s starter.

Singer has surrendered 14 earned runs over his last four starts, leading to a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Surprisingly, those numbers show improvement from his season-long numbers, but neither is very flattering.

The 26-year-old’s biggest problem this season has been his vulnerability to hard contact. Per Baseball Savant, Singer ranks in the bottom 1% of the majors in Hard Hit rate (51.4%), a dramatic spike from his 40.9% Hard Hit rate in 2022. The righty is rather predictable as well, throwing either a sinker or slider on 93% of his pitches. Both pitches own an xBA of .258 or greater, with his next most common pitch (Changeup) owning a .304 xBA.

What’s the Play?

Our model projects the Mets to narrowly squeeze out a victory this afternoon. However, we have our sets on the over here, a prediction our model agrees with.

Carlos Carrasco (3-5 record, 6.40 ERA) will make the start today for New York. Just like Singer, he is vulnerable to hard contact, ranking in the bottom 9% in Hard Hit rate and Average Exit Velocity allowed. He also owns a low strikeout rate of 16.1% and 6.16 xERA, partially due to surrendering 18 hits and 13 runs across his last 4.2 innings.

Neither of today’s starters is an ideal option when it comes to picking the winner of today’s matchup, but when you combine both guys’ vulnerability to hard contact with New York and Kansas City’s offense, you have a recipe for a high-scoring affair. Our model gives the over a 55.24% chance of hitting this afternoon, a chance we feel comfortable with taking.

3-star play: Over 9 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Yankees- 56-52 overall this season, 33-26 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- 55-53 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games

• Seattle Mariners- 56-52 overall this season, 15-11 against division opponents (Play AL West rival Los Angeles tonight)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Brewers- Under is 59-46-4 this season, 20-12 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival Pittsburgh tonight)

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 56-46-7 this season, 31-19-5 as the away team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 61-39-6 this season, 28-22-3 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 63-45 overall this season, 26-18 as a home favorite

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 71-39 overall this season, 34-14 as road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

⚾️ Domingo German to miss rest of season. New York Yankees pitcher Domingo German is set to miss the rest of the season after voluntarily submitting himself to treatment for alcohol abuse. German has reportedly dealt with alcoholism in the past, and according to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com there was an incident on Tuesday that led to the 30-year-old seeking treatment. New York has placed German, who owns a 4.56 ERA in 2023 and threw a perfect game earlier this season, on the restricted list, which removes him from the roster for the duration that he is away from the club.

🤕 Liam Hendricks undergoes Tommy John surgery. Chicago White Sox closer Liam Hendricks underwent Tommy John surgery to repair his right elbow, per the team’s Twitter account. Chicago added that Hendricks, who was placed on the IL on June 11th with an elbow issue, will be out for approximately 12-14 months, meaning that the next time we could see him pitch won’t be until the 2025 season. Hendricks was one of the feel-good stories of the 2023 MLB season, the first year he was back on the mound since his recovery from non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

🐻 Marcus Stroman lands on the IL with hip inflammation. Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman was placed on the 15-day IL on Wednesday due to inflammation in his right hip. The right-hander’s stay on the IL is expected to be short though, with Cubs manager David Ross saying that he is only going to miss one start. Stroman has posted solid season-long numbers, a 10-8 record and 3.85 ERA, but has posted a 1-3 record and 9.11 ERA in July.

🤕 Montrezl Harrell suffers torn ACL and meniscus. Philadelphia 76ers center Montrezl Harrell has torn his ACL and meniscus on his right team, per Shams Charania. Harrell reportedly suffered the injury during offseason workouts, which had led to swelling and eventually an MRI on Wednesday. Philadelphia has yet to announce a timeline for Harrell, who signed a one-year deal earlier in the offseason to stay with the 76ers following a season in which he averaged 5.6 points and 2.8 rebounds per game.

🦆 Anaheim signs Troy Terry to seven-year extension. Anaheim Ducks wingman Troy Terry received a big payday on Wednesday, signing a seven-year contract that carries a $7 million average annual value to stay with the Ducks. Terry and the Ducks were supposed to have an arbitration hearing on Wednesday, but the both sides worked out the contract disputes prior to the hearing. Terry, who was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 NHL Draft at the age of 17, has collected 75 goals and 101 assists in 274 career appearances and has been an All-Star each of the last two seasons.

👀 Big Ten in discussions to add four teams from the Pac-12. UCLA and USC are already heading to the Big Ten, but it appears that more schools could leave the Pac-12 and join them. Per Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports, the Big Ten is considering expanding its membership to 18 or 20 teams, with Oregon and Washington having first dibs if the league expands to 18 and Stanford and Cal being next in line if the league expands to 20. Expansion discussions are still in the early stages, but the future of the Pac-12 is looking rather bleak, with Colorado also set to depart to the Big 12 next season.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- NBA shooting guard Norman Powell has played on three teams in his NBA career, the Toronto Raptors, Portland Trail Blazers, and Los Angeles Clippers. However, none of those teams are the team that drafted him out of UCLA in 2015. What team drafted Powell?

Question #2- Two NFL players have recorded the most sacks in a season at 22.5. Who are those two players?

Question #3- Steph Curry owns the NBA record for career three-pointers made with 3,390. Which active NBA player is the closest to Curry on the list?

Anyone know what has happened on August 3rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 3rd…

1930- Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Chuck Klein records a hit in his 26th straight game, his second 26-game hit streak of the season. Unfortunately, the star hitter would fail to stretch the streak to 27 games, seeing the streak come to an end after being held hitless in the second game of a doubleheader against the Boston Braves. Klein was a lethal hitter in each of his three stints in a Phillies uniform, posting a .320 career batting average, 2,076 hits, and 300 home runs before retiring.

1936- American sprinter Jesse Owens wins the 100 meter dash at the Berlin Olympics in Germany, completing the race in 10.3 seconds. The victory was just the tip of the iceberg for Owens, as he would go on to win three more gold medals in the long jump, 200 meter dash, and 4×100 meter relay. Prior to his Olympic champion status, Owens was a star at Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio, where his gold medals can be seen on display today.

1989- The Cincinnati Reds set an MLB record for most hits in the 1st inning of a game, collecting 16 against the Houston Astros. Astros starting pitcher Jim Clancy failed to record an out in the inning while allowing six hits and seven runs, and Bob Forsche would surrender 10 hits and seven runs in relief. Cincinnati would go on to score 14 runs in the first inning of the matchup, ending the game with 26 hits in an 18-2 blowout victory.

1. Milwaukee Bucks

2. Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt

3. James Harden (third)