In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NHL, and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 3-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 2-3

Over/Under Predictions: 4-0-1

Puck Line Predictions: 3-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

After a slow start to the week, the NHL is back in a big way with eight games scheduled for Tuesday. You can see all of our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchups below.

Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights

Model Predicts- Stars ML, UNDER 6, Stars +1.5

The Dallas Stars will begin a short two-game roadtrip on on Tuesday night, with the first stop coming in Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights.

Dallas enters tonight’s matchup with a 1-0-0 record, starting their season with a shootout win over the St. Louis Blues on October 12th. Meanwhile, Vegas has already played three games and is a perfect 3-0.

The Stars should be well-rested for tonight’s matchup, and our model believes that will be the difference maker against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Dallas Stars

• Had four days off following 2-1 win over Blues

• Defense was highlight in that matchup

  • Held St. Louis to 24 total shots on goal, 21 in regulation

  • xGA/60 of 2.10, 9.23 High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60), per Natural Stat Trick

• Offense fell victim to great performance by Jordan Binnington

  • 0.92 GF/60, but 2.8 xGF/60

  • Generated pressure- 34 shots on goal, 12.00 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes

• Starting goalie- Jake Oettinger

  • +11.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) last season, +1.1 through one game this season

Vegas Golden Knights

• Defense has been key to perfect start

  • Surrendering just 1.32 goals per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5. xGA sits at 2.81

  • Have allowed lots of pressure though- 12.74 HDCA/60 in 5-on-5

  • Allowed 1 goal in all three games

• Offense has been solid, but due for regression

  • Rank 5th in GF/60 in 5-on-5 (3.52), but xGF/60 in 5-on-5 situations sits at 3.10

• Starting goalie- Adin Hill

  • .951 Save % and .818 high danger Save % in 5-on-5 this season

  • Ranks 48th in GSAx (0.9)

What’s the Play?

Dallas’ sample size is only one game, so it’s hard to draw conclusions from what we’ve seen so far. However, we agree with our model that this will likely be a low-scoring contest.

Dallas and Vegas were two of the league’s best defenses last season, with both ranking inside the top-11 in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations. It looks like that is going to remain the case this season too, as both teams have combined to allow just four goals in a four-game span.

Oettinger and Hill are two solid bodies between the pipes as well, setting up what should be a game that doesn’t see many goals. We wouldn’t be surprised to see this total drop to 5.5 by puck drop, so we’ll take the under at 6 while we still can.

The Play: Under 6 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Wild- 1-1-0 overall this season, 21-13-7 as the away team last season

• Dallas Stars- 1-0-0 overall this season, 25-11-5 as the away team last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Vancouver Canucks- Over is 1-0-1 this season with average total of 8.00 goals

• Vegas Golden Knights- Under is 3-0 this season with average total of 5.00 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Nashville Predators- Puck line is 2-1 overall this season

🤕 Kirby Dach to miss significant time. Montreal Canadiens forward Kirby Dach is expected to be sidelined for a significant period due to an injury sustained in a game against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Canadiens have not disclosed specific details about the injury, but have indicated that more information will be provided in the coming days. Dach, who was acquired by the Canadiens in July 2022, had an impressive start to the season, and his absence means Alex Newhook is set to take on added responsibilities.

📅 Tanev to miss at least one month with lower body injury. Seattle Kraken forward Brandon Tanev will be sidelined for a minimum of one month due to a lower-body injury. The Kraken disclosed on Monday that Tanev is expected to be out for four to six weeks, with head coach Dave Hakstol acknowledging Tanev's significant contributions to the team's penalty kill and overall energy. Tanev's injury occurred following an illegal hit to the head by Vegas' Brett Howden, leading to a match penalty and a two-game suspension for Howden.

Game 2 of the NLCS between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies is set to take place tonight. You can see our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchup below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 8, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to even the series in Game 2 of the NLCS on Tuesday night.

Game 1 got off to a less than ideal start for Arizona, with the Phillies launching three home runs in the first seven batters of the game. The Diamondbacks did put up a fight though, scoring three runs in what later became a 5-3 loss.

Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola will take the mound tonight for their respective teams, which our model believes will give the Phillies a 2-0 series lead. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Offense struggled against Zack Wheeler

  • Generated 3 hits and 2 runs in 6.0 innings

  • Eight batters struck out, none drew a walk

• Have still been great at the plate in postseason

  • 113 wRC+ and .808 OPS, per FanGraphs

  • 14 home runs in six games, but .262 BABIP shows they aren’t doing much outside of long ball

• Starting pitcher- Merrill Kelly

  • Ranks in bottom 34% of majors in walk rate (9.4%), hard hit rate (41.8%), and average exit velocity allowed

  • Regression is on horizon- 4.13 xERA against a 3.29 ERA

Philadelphia Phillies

• Offense appears to be unstoppable

  • Scored 5 runs last night, three of which came from home runs

  • Have now hit 16 home runs in 7 postseason games

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (140), 1st in OPS (.905), and 4th in BABIP (.313) amongst playoff teams

• Starting pitcher- Aaron Nola

  • 1.48 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in two postseason starts

  • Vulnerable to hard contact (38.5% hard hit rate) and barrel (8.3% barrel rate)

  • Owns 43.1% ground ball rate, allowed 1.49 home runs per 9 innings in regular season

What’s the Play?

Once again, our model doesn’t see much value when it comes to backing either team to win this game. However, it has spotted some value on the over.

Arizona and Philadelphia have combined to hit 30 home runs in 13 postseason games. That is an absurd pace that is likely to slow down, but both Kelly and Nola’s vulnerability to hard contact is bad news for both squads. Nola’s struggles with keeping balls on the ground and home runs will play a large factor tonight, too.

Kelly allowed 3 runs in 6.0 innings against Philly in the regular season, while Nola allowed 4 runs in 6.2 innings against Arizona. We think we will see similar performances tonight, leading to a high-scoring contest.

The Play: Over 8 (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 6-1 overall in postseason, 5-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Diamondbacks and Phillies- Over was 4-3 in regular season series with average total of 11.14 runs per game

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line was 91-77 overall in regular season, 5-1 overall in postseason

🐟 Kim Ng, Marlins part ways. Kim Ng, the first female general manager in MLB history, will not return to the Miami Marlins as GM for the 2024 season. Marlins chairman Bruce Sherman expressed his appreciation for her contributions but mentioned they were not aligned in their vision for the front office. Brian Chattin will serve as interim GM, and the Marlins are looking to hire a president of baseball operations to oversee the organization.

💪 Rangers take 2-0 series lead back to Arlington. The Texas Rangers secured a commanding 2-0 lead in the American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros, winning 5-4 at Minute Maid Park. Their offense pounced on Astros ace Framber Valdez with a four-run first inning, and Texas remains undefeated at 7-0 in the postseason. With two more wins needed, the Rangers are on the verge of reaching their first World Series since 2011 as they head to Globe Life Field in Arlington for Games 3, 4, and 5, if necessary.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which MLB team won the World series in 1998, 1999, and 2000, going 12-1 overall across those three years?

Question #2- Prior to his NBA career, Montrezl Harrell played college basketball at what ACC school?

Question #3- Which university is in the process of making the transition from FCS to FBS for the 2024 college football season?

Anyone know what has happened on October 17th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 17th…

1974- The Washington Capitals record their first home victory in franchise history. The win came against the Chicago Blackhawks, a game in which Washington scored four goals to Chicago’s three. However, wins were few and far between the rest of the way, with Washington ending the year with an 8-67-5 record.

1992- The Toronto Blue Jays become the first non-American team to participate in a World Series. Toronto would take on the Atlanta Braves in the Fall Classic, immediately falling into a 1-0 deficit after Game 1. However, the Blue Jays would win the next three games and end the series in Game 6, taking home their first World Series title.

2000- The New York Yankees defeat the Seattle Mariners in the ALCS. New York took the series four games to two after defeating the Oakland Athletics in five games in the ALDS. The win over Seattle advanced the Yankees to the World Series, where they would beat the New York Mets in five games.

1. New York Yankees

2. Louisville

3. Kennesaw State University