In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 12-3

Over/Under Predictions: 9-5-1

Run Line Predictions: 8-7

Featured Matchup: 0-0-1

Our NFL model CRUSHED it in Week 1 of the NFL season, going 12-4 on money line predictions, 11-5 on over/under predictions, and 9-6-1 on spread predictions, and only Premium subscribers will receive Week 2’s predictions on Thursday and Sunday!

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, UNDER 9, Cubs +1.5

The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers will wrap up their three-game series on Wednesday, with the first pitch for Game 3 scheduled to take place at 10:10 PM Eastern.

Chicago has been the more dominant team thus far through two games, taking down the Dodgers by multiple runs in each of those contests. Those wins now put Chicago in second place in the NL Central with a 75-70 record, while Los Angeles enters tonight’s battle in first place in the NL West at 86-59.

Sportsbook make the Dodgers a sizable favorite at home tonight, but our model projects the Cubs’ dominance to continue here. Let’s dive into why that is.

Chicago Cubs

• Enter today on three-game win streak

  • One win over Yankees, two wins over Dodgers

  • Own +10 run differential in that span

• Strong play at the plate has been catalyst for success in seres with L.A.

  • Own 132 wRC+, .417 BABIP, and .846 OPS across two games

  • 16 runs scored ranks first in MLB in that span. 20.5% Strikeout rate ranks inside top-11

• Starting pitcher- Jordan Wicks

  • Pitching to expectations- 4.03 ERA vs 4.19 xERA

  • Command is shaky (8.3% Walk rate), but great at avoiding barrel (5.2% Barrel rate)

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Enter today having lost four of last six games

  • One loss to Angels, one loss to Guardians, two losses to Cubs

  • Have been outscored 31-20 by opponents in that stretch

• Weak performances from pitching staff have often been reason for losing stretch

  • Starters- 4.76 ERA (24th), .303 BABIP (17th), 1.91 Home Runs/9 Innings (27th)

  • Relievers- 3.28 ERA (14th), .329 BABIP (23rd), 0.73 Home Runs/9 Innings (13th)

• Starting pitcher- Bobby Miller

  • Due for positive regression, but still expected to be bad- 7.79 ERA vs 6.64 xERA

What’s the Play?

Bobby Miller’s struggles on the mound this season have been eye-opening, and it has often times put the Dodgers in a hole when he is on the mound. As a result, we expect the Cubs to make this a close game.

Miller is due to see some better days on the mound in comparison to what we’ve seen from him this season, but it is likely that we will see more struggles in the future than anything else. His 6.64 xERA ranks in the bottom 1% of the MLB this season and is up from 3.40 a season ago, which is largely due to his inability to avoid hard contact (48.3% Hard Hit rate) and the barrel (12.2% Barrel rate). He ranks in the bottom 2% of the MLB in both of those metrics.

Wicks hasn’t been a stud on the mound either for Chicago, but he is expected to maintain his current production and has one of the hottest offenses in the MLB behind him for plenty of run support. We wouldn’t mind a sprinkle on the Cubs money line here, but we will be rolling with the run line.

The Play: Cubs +1.5 (-135)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 79-66 overall this season, 39-32 as the away team, and 8-2 in last ten games

• Seattle Mariners- 73-72 overall this season, 41-29 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- 75-70 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 83-56-6 this season, 43-26-2 as the home team

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 70-66-9 this season, 41-25-4 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Chicago Cubs- Run line is 71-74 this season, 36-16 as a road underdog

💪 Jacob deGrom to make first start of season on Friday. Jacob deGrom is set to return to the Texas Rangers' rotation on Friday against the Seattle Mariners, after being sidelined since April 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. The 36-year-old ace, known for his dominant performances when healthy, has struggled with injuries, limiting him to fewer than 15 starts per season since 2021. The Rangers, currently six games back from an AL wild-card spot, will also welcome Max Scherzer back on Saturday.

🤕 Mariners place Castillo on IL at crucial point in season. The Seattle Mariners placed Luis Castillo on the 15-day injured list with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, but hope he can return after the minimum recovery period following a PRP injection. Castillo, who has had a solid season with an 11-12 record and 3.64 ERA, left his last start early due to the injury. Additionally, the Mariners moved Yimi García to the 60-day injured list, ending his season, as they currently trail the Astros by 4.5 games for first in the AL West and are four games back from the final wild-card spot.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Since 2002, only two quarterbacks that were drafted first overall have won their first career start. Who are those QB’s?

Question #2- The St. Louis Cardinals had the youngest player in the MLB on their roster on opening day in 2023. Who was that player?

Question #3- Anthony Richardson was the seventh different QB to start a Week 1 game for the Colts in the last eight seasons. Can you name the previous two Colts Week 1 starters before him?

Anyone know what has happened on September 11th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 11th…

1966- Johnny Miller becomes the first New York Yankee to hit a home run in his first MLB at-bat. Even crazier, Miller would record just two homers in his career, with the second coming in his final MLB at-bat in 1969. He is just one of two players in MLB history to hit a home run in his first and last at-bats, joining Paul Gillespie on the list.

1983- Pittsburgh Steelers running back Franco Harris rushes for 118 yards in a 25-21 victory over the Green Bay Packers. The performance gave Harris 11,000 rush yards in his career, becoming only the third player to reach the milestone. Harris would end his career with 12,120 rushing yards, the 15th most in league history.

1985- MLB legend Pete Rose records his 4,192nd career hit in a matchup with the San Diego Padres. The hit put Rose ahead of Ty Cobb on the all-time list, who sat in first place for 57 years. Rose ended his career with 4,256 hits, which is still the most in MLB history to this day.

1. David Carr, Caleb Williams

2. Jordan Walker

3. Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz