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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-7

Over/Under Predictions: 7-7

Run Line Predictions: 5-9

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

Model Predicts- Cardinals ML, OVER 8.5, Rockies +1.5

The Colorado Rockies will continue their four-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday afternoon, with Game 3 scheduled to take place at 4:25 PM Eastern.

Colorado has seen mixed results in the series thus far, snagging a 3-2 victory in Game 1 before falling 8-5 in Game 2. However, the Rockies still sit in the basement of the NL West with a 22-41 record despite splitting the first two games of this series, while St. Louis owns a 30-32 record and finds itself in fourth place in the NL Central.

St. Louis is once again a sizable favorite at home today, but our model sees some value in betting Colorado. Let’s dive into why that is.

Colorado Rockies

• Split first two games of series with Cardinals

  • Outscored St. Louis 3-2 in Game 1 before losing 8-5 in Game 2

  • Have collected 14 hits and eight walks in those two games

• Have had plenty of chances to pile on runs over last three games

  • Have scored 15 runs in last three contests, all while leaving 22 runners on base in that span

  • Rank 11th in MLB in on base % (.325) and 3rd in BABIP (.342) in last three games- finding holes in defense often

• Starting pitcher- Ryan Feltner

  • Due to see positive regression- 6.22 ERA vs 4.00 xERA

  • Solid at limiting walks (6.3% walk rate) and barrel contact (6.5% Barrel rate)

St. Louis Cardinals

• Struggling to find rhythm in June

  • Own 3-4 record since June 1st. -6 run differential in that seven-game span

• Mediocre offense and poor starting pitching has led to slow start this month

  • Offense- 99 wRC+ (17th), .266 BABIP (18th), and .691 OPS (17th) since June 1st

  • Starters- 6.12 ERA (25th), 47.8% Ground Ball rate (23rd), and 4.73 walks per nine innings (29th) since June 1st

• Starting pitcher- Kyle Gibson

  • Due for tons of regression- 3.69 ERA vs 4.99 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 23% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (42.4%), and Barrel rate (10.3%)

What’s the Play?

Colorado is not the most ideal team to place a bet on, but we agree with our model that there is some value in taking the Rockies on the run line this afternoon.

On the surface it appears Ryan Feltner has been bad, but several underlying metrics show that he has been a solid option for Colorado. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the top 25% of the major leagues this season in walk rate and has been great at avoiding the barrel and hard hit balls (88.0 mph avg. exit velocity). His 6.22 ERA may not show that, but his 4.00 xERA is a far better indication of how he has been pitching, and shows that fewer runs are on the horizon for Colorado’s opponents while Feltner is on the mound.

On the flip side, Kyle Gibson is due for a sizable amount of regression, and his vulnerability to hard contact and the barrel give Colorado the chance to score in bunches this afternoon. As a result, we’ll back the Rockies to keep things close.

The Play: Rockies +1.5 (-135)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 40-22 overall this season, 19-10 as the away team

• New York Yankees- 45-20 overall this season, 21-9 as the home team, and 8-2 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 34-28-1 this season, 18-14 as the away team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 33-23-6 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (58.9%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 37-26 this season, 13-12 as a home underdog

• Colorado Rockies- Run line is 17-16 as a road underdog this season

💪 White Sox beat Red Sox to snap 14-game losing streak. Luis Robert Jr., Gavin Sheets, and Andrew Vaughn each hit home runs as the Chicago White Sox snapped a 14-game losing streak by defeating the Boston Red Sox 7-2. Garrett Crochet struck out 10 in six innings, securing Chicago's first win since May 21 and ending the longest losing streak in the majors since 2022. Despite Boston's recent strong performance and the early loss of right fielder Tyler O'Neill, the White Sox took the lead for good in the fourth inning, highlighted by Oscar Colás' crucial two-run single.

⚾️ Valdez throws complete game in win over Angels. Yainer Diaz homered in his fourth consecutive game, driving in three runs, and Framber Valdez pitched a four-hitter to lead the Houston Astros to a 7-1 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Yordan Alvarez's three-run double in the seventh inning broke a tie, contributing to a five-run surge that helped the Astros secure their fifth win in eight games. Valdez, who dedicated his performance to injured teammate Cristian Javier, struck out eight in his seventh complete game, with Diaz and José Abreu also adding homers to the Astros' offensive effort.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Tom Brady won six Super Bowls in his time with the New England Patriots, winning his first in 2002 and his last in 2019 before going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The six Super Bowls put New England at the top of the NFL for most Super Bowl wins by a franchise, but the Patriots are tied with another team. What franchise has also won six Super Bowls?

Question #2- Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood hold the MLB record for the most strikeouts in a nine-inning game. How many batters did each pitcher strikeout when he set/tied the record?

Question #3- Baker Mayfield was the first walk-on to ever win the Heisman Trophy, winning college football’s most prestigious award in 2017 while attending the University of Oklahoma. Mayfield did not start his collegiate career with the Sooners though, instead attending the same school as one of the best quarterbacks currently in the NFL. What university did Mayfield attend before Oklahoma?

Anyone know what has happened on June 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 8th…

1950- The Boston Red Sox CRUSH the St. Louis Browns in Fenway Park, winning 29-4. The bludgeoning began with eight runs in the second inning, followed by 14 additional runs from innings three to six and seven runs in innings seven through eight. Boston’s 29 runs remain the MLB record for runs scored in a game by a single team, and the Sox simultaneously set the record for mosts total bases in one game with 60.

1965- The inaugural MLB Draft is held New York City, with the Kansas City Athletics selecting Rick Monday No.1 overall. Monday would go on to have a 19-year career in the majors and, playing for three teams, the Athletics, Cubs, and Dodgers, earning two All-Star appearances and winning a World Series in 1981. Other notable players selected were Johnny Bench and Nolan Ryan, just two of the additional 812 players selected after Monday.

1982- The Los Angeles Lakers win the 36th NBA Finals, beating the Philadelphia 76ers 4-2 in a best-of-seven series. Led by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Los Angeles finished the regular season with 57 wins, nine more than the next closest team, which gave LA the No.1 seed in the West. Philadelphia was the No.3 seed in the East that year, and would avenge its Finals loss in 1983 by sweeping the same Lakers team that beat them the year before.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. 20

3. Texas Tech University