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Championship Saturday
Two Best Bets Today
In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…
Yesterday’s Model Recap
NCAAF Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News
NBA Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News
NHL Model Predictions, Trends, and News
Yesterday’s Model Recap
There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA, NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.
NCAAF Model Results
Money Line Predictions: 1-1
Over/Under Predictions: 2-0
Spread Predictions: 2-0
Featured Matchup: 1-0
NBA Model Results
Money Line Predictions: 5-1
Over/Under Predictions: 4-2
Spread Predictions: 4-2
Featured Matchup: 1-0
NHL Model Results
Money Line Predictions: 0-2
Over/Under Predictions: 0-2
Puck Line Predictions: 2-0
Featured Matchup: 0-0
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NBA player props and projected stat lines (Saturday & Sunday- see example below)
Our NFL model’s Anytime TD Scorers (Posted Today)
Six additional NFL player props (Posted Sunday)
NBA/NHL Model Track and Power Rankings (Posted Monday)
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NCAAF🏈
Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck (GeorgiaBulldogs.com)
Today’s Model Predictions
Conference Championship weekend continues today, with eight more championship games scheduled to take place. Our model’s predictions for all of today’s games are below.
Featured Matchup🎰
Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Model Predicts- Georgia ML, UNDER 55.5, Georgia -4.5
The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide will square off in a highly anticipated SEC Championship this afternoon.
Georgia enters today’s game with a perfect record, beating all 12 teams it has faced this season. However, Alabama isn’t far behind, posting an 11-1 record, with the Tide’s only loss coming back in September at the hands of the Texas Longhorns.
This will be the fourth time that Georgia and Alabama face off in the SEC Championship, a series that Alabama is undefeated in. However, our model expects Georgia to win today, so let’s dive into why that is.
Georgia Bulldogs
Posted perfect 12-0 record in regular season
4-0 against non-conference teams, 8-0 against SEC teams
Average margin of victory was 22.3 points- 4th in NCAA
Led by elite offense
Rank 5th in yards per play
Favor the pass, but still a balanced approach- run ball on 51.57% of plays, 185.6 rush yards and and 310.8 pass yards per game
52% success rate on all downs
Defense is strong as well
Rank 12th in opponent yards per play
Limit explosive plays- surrendered 12 plays of 40+ yards
Alabama Crimson Tide
Started season slow, but bounced back
Lost to Texas early, struggled against USF in following week
Have won 10 straight games since Texas loss
Offense isn’t great, but gets job done
49th in yards per game, 27th in yards per play
QB Jalen Milroe- 66.4% completion %, 21 TDs, 6 INTs
Defense is great against pass
Holding opponents to 25% success rate on passing downs, 58% completion rate
Have allowed just seven pass plays of 40+ yards
What’s the Play?
Our model only shows a slight edge on the total here, but we agree with our model that the under is a solid play in today’s matchup.
Georgia and Alabama’s defenses aren’t as dominant as in the past, but both units are still among the best in the country. The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide each rank inside the top 18 in opponent yards per play, and have shown that explosive plays are hard to come by while on the field.
Additionally, even though Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe bring a lot to the table, especially Milroe with his rushing ability, neither is an outstanding quarterback. We expect a hard-fought, defensive battle this afternoon, which should lead to a low-scoring contest.
The Play: Under 55.5 (-110)
Relevant Betting Trends
Money Line Trends 💰
UNLV- 9-3 overall this season, 3-2 as an underdog
Georgia Bulldogs- 12-0 overall this season, 1-0 at neutral site
Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️
Michigan- Over is 6-5-1 this season, 6-2-1 against Big 10 opponents
Louisville- Over is 6-5-1 this season, 5-3 against ACC opponents
Spread Trends ➕➖
Oklahoma State- 7-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, 4-1 ATS as an underdog
SMU- 7-5 ATS this season
News Around the League
🐾 Washington beats Oregon in final Pac-12 game. In a gripping 34-31 showdown, the No. 3 Washington Huskies clinched the Pac-12 Championship against the No. 5 Oregon Ducks. Michael Penix Jr. led the way for Huskies, completing 69.2% of his pass attempts for 319 yards and one touchdown. Washington is now 3-0 all-time in Pac-12 Championship games, while Oregon fell to 4-2.
🤝 USC hires new defensive coordinator. The USC Trojans made a much needed move on Friday, hiring former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. USC's decision to bring in Lynn comes after the dismissal of former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch due to the team's defensive struggles. Lynn, who recently completed his inaugural season as UCLA's defensive coordinator, notably led a top-ranked Pac-12 defense and one of the nation's best units, particularly excelling in limiting opponents' rushing yards and overall yards per play.
NBA🏀
Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton (GQ)
Today’s Model Predictions
Another busy day of NBA basketball is set to take place today, with 24 of 30 teams hitting the hardwood. Our model’s predictions for every matchup are below.
Featured Matchup🎰
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat
Model Predicts- Pacers ML, UNDER 240, Pacers +3.5
The Indiana Pacers will end a short two-game road trip on Saturday, with a second consecutive bout coming against the Miami Heat.
Indiana enters tonight’s tilt with a 9-8 record, good enough for seventh place in the Eastern Conference through 17 games. Meanwhile, Miami owns an 11-8 record and sits in sixth in the East thanks to posting a 10-5 record in the November.
Miami got the best of Indiana just two nights ago, defending home court with a 142-132 win. However, our model expects the Pacers to flip the script tonight as a road underdog. Let’s take a look at why that is.
Indiana Pacers
Lost by 10 points to Miami on Thursday
Shot 51% overall, but just 26% from three and 66% from free throw line
Performance highlighted defensive struggles
Allowed Miami to shoot 56% from the field
Enter today ranked 28th or worse in Defensive Rating (120.2), opponent FG% (50.2%), and opponent 3PT% (39.5%)
Luckily possess elite offense
Rank 1st in Offensive Rating (122.5)- nearly 3.0 points higher than any other team
Tremendous depth- Eight players average at least 10.0 points per game, rank 2nd in bench points per game (46.4)
Miami Heat
Dealing with several key injuries today
Will be without Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo- account for 40.2% of Miami’s points
Jimmy Butler also questionable
Offense isn’t a huge threat on nightly basis
Average 112.3 points per game
Strong three-point shooting team (38.2%)
Defense is solid, but can still be exposed
Rank 10th in Defensive Rating
Rank in bottom 10 in opponent FG% and opponent 3PT%
What’s the Play?
Indiana’s philosophy is to play fast, score in bunches, and see if its opponent can keep up. That strategy hasn’t always worked, but we agree with our model that it can keep the Pacers in tonight’s game.
Indiana was in position to beat Miami on Thursday, going into halftime up nine points. A fourth quarter collapse ruined their chances of victory, but the Pacers still scored 132 points in the matchup, although the bad defense once again caught up to them.
There’s a chance that defense continues to pose a problem today, but it will be difficult for the Heat to keep up without its top two scorers an potentially their third if Jimmy Butler sits out.
Tyrese Haliburton is questionable tonight, and it would be a big loss for the Pacers if he sits out. However, Indiana has great scoring depth, and our model thinks the Pacers can cover the spread even if he is sidelined.
The Play: Pacers +3.5 (-110)
Relevant Betting Trends
Money Line Trends 💰
Los Angeles Clippers- 8-10 overall this season, 5-3 as the home team
New Orleans Pelicans- 11-9 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games
Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️
Phoenix Suns- Over is 13-6 this season, 8-1 as the home team
Denver Nuggets- Under is 12-8 this season, 8-3 as the away team
Spread Trends ➕➖
Orlando Magic- 15-4 against the spread (ATS) this season, 9-3 ATS as an underdog
Oklahoma City Thunder- 13-4-1 ATS this season, 5-1 ATS as a home favorite
News Around the League
👏 Durant moves into 10th on all-time scoring list. Kevin Durant solidified his spot in the NBA's top 10 all-time scoring list last night against the Nuggets. The Phoenix Suns star surpassed Moses Malone's career points, securing the tenth spot by effortlessly driving for a layup, needing only 17 points to achieve this milestone within two quarters. Despite Durant's 30-point contribution in the game, the Denver Nuggets secured a 119-111 victory, even without Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon in the lineup.
😬 Tatum ejected in win over 76ers. Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum picked up two technical fouls and was subsequently ejected in last night’s win over the 76ers. Following a sequence where Tatum received a flagrant foul 1 after an offensive foul call, referee Nick Buchert ejected him for his second technical foul with only 2.1 seconds left in the third quarter. Tatum, who denied using foul language, found the ejection surprising, believing his actions were less severe compared to other instances he's witnessed in the league.
NHL🏒
Boston bruins goalie Linus Ullmark (Getty Images)
Today’s Model Predictions
A MASSIVE slate of NHL hockey is at our disposal today, with 26 teams scheduled to hit the ice. Our model’s predictions for all 13 of today’s matchups are below.
Featured Matchup🎰
There is no NHL Featured Matchup today.
Relevant Betting Trends
Money Line Trends 💰
New York Rangers- 16-4-1 overall this season, 7-2 as the home team
Boston Bruins- 15-4-3 overall this season, 7-3-2 as the away team
Arizona Coyotes- 11-9-2 overall this season, 6-4 as the home team
Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️
Pittsburgh Penguins- Under is 14-6-2 this season with average total of 5.73
Washington Capitals- Under is 14-6 this season with average total of 5.30
Puck Line Trends ➕➖
Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 16-7 this season
News Around the League
🤕 Dougie Hamilton out indefinitely after surgery. New Jersey Devils' top defenseman Dougie Hamilton underwent surgery for a torn left pectoral muscle, rendering him out indefinitely. Hamilton's surgery, conducted by Devils' medical officials, has led to his placement on injured reserve, while 19-year-old Simon Nemec is set to make his NHL debut as Hamilton's replacement. The loss of Hamilton, coupled with forward Tomas Nosek's indefinite absence after foot surgery, has posed challenges for the Devils, who are aiming to navigate these setbacks while on the brink of securing an Eastern Conference playoff position.