Christmas Day Basketball in New York

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NFL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Five NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all five matchups can be found below.

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

Model Predicts- Knicks ML, OVER 223.5, Spurs +9

The San Antonio Spurs will continue their four-game road trip on Wednesday, taking their talents to the Big Apple to battle the New York Knicks on Christmas Day.

San Antonio’s road trip has gotten off to a slow start, as the Spurs opened the trip with a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. That loss brings the Spurs’ record to 15-14 for the season, while the Knicks own a 19-10 record and enter this afternoon’s matchup having won four-consecutive games.

New York has been one of the hotter teams in the NBA over last week, yet our model projects the Spurs to cover the spread in a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is.

San Antonio Spurs

• Began road trip with loss to 76ers

  • Lost game 111-106. Scored 45 points in first half and 61 points in second half

  • Shot 46% from the floor overall and 33% from three in game

• Defense has been sub-par during entire month of December

  • Own 115.6 Defensive Rating since December 1st- ranks 23rd in NBA and is up from 111.5 during span of Oct. 24-Nov.27

  • Largest weakness is on perimeter- opponents shooting 37.7% from three in December (25th in NBA)

• Enter today with fully healthy roster

  • Zero players listed on injury report

New York Knicks

• Enter today on four-game win streak

  • Wins over Magic, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Raptors

  • Own +60 point differential in that span

• Offense has been on fire during winning streak

  • 120.5 Offensive Rating ranks 3rd in NBA in that span behind only Cavaliers (126.6) and Mavericks (122.0)

  • Efficient shooting has led to points in bunches- 50.4% FG % and 43.4% 3-pt % have resulted in 119.0 points/game

• Have been one of strongest teams in NBA at home

  • Own +11.5 Net Rating and 9-4 record across 13 home games this season

What’s the Play?

Our model spots some value in backing the Spurs as a road underdog, but we’d prefer to bet the over in this spot.

San Antonio’s defense is starting to slip after a strong start, and that does not bode well heading into this matchup. New York is a top-tier contender this season, and has all the tools to expose San Antonio’s weak perimeter defense as the Knicks are shooting 39.8% from three this season (2nd in NBA). That percentage consists of five key rotation players shooting over 40% from deep, ranging from Karl-Anthony Towns to Jalen Brunson, highlighting the Knicks’ ability to hit the three-pointer from all levels of the depth chart.

However, if there is a weakness to the Knicks it comes in defending the perimeter. New York has played solid defense overall during its win streak, as evidenced by its 105.1 Defensive Rating, but has allowed opponents to shoot 36.6% from three in that time. That ranks in the bottom half of the NBA, and gives a Spurs team that launches the sixth-most three-pointers/game (39.9) a great chance to pour it on from behind the arc.

The three-pointer is the key to backing the over in most NBA games, and both teams are in a position to light it up from three this afternoon. Our model projects roughly 227 points to be scored at Madison Square Garden, giving us some room to back the over at 223.5.

The Play: Over 223.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Knicks- 19-10 overall this season, 9-4 as the home team, and 4-0 in the last four games

• Dallas Mavericks- 19-10 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games

• Golden State Warriors- 15-13 overall this season, 7-6 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Knicks- Over is 16-13 this season, 7-6 as the home team

• Denver Nuggets- Over is 18-9 this season, highest win percentage in NBA (66.7%)

Spread Trends ➕➖

• San Antonio Spurs- 14-15 against the spread (ATS) this season, 8-10 ATS as an underdog

☀️ Suns contemplating trading key players to improve roster. The Phoenix Suns are exploring a trade involving center Jusuf Nurkic, targeting big men like Nikola Vucevic or Jonas Valanciunas, and are also discussing deals for Miami's Jimmy Butler and potentially involving Bradley Beal. Nurkic, acquired in 2023 as part of the Damian Lillard trade, is averaging 9.1 points and 9.6 rebounds this season while on a four-year, $70 million contract. The Suns, currently 11th in the Western Conference, aim to bolster their roster amid a three-game losing streak ahead of their Christmas Day matchup against the Denver Nuggets.

💪 Williamson set to begin practicing next week. New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson has started the conditioning phase of his rehab and is expected to fully practice next week after missing 21 games due to a left hamstring strain, with his injury status now being evaluated week-to-week. Despite being in the second season of a five-year, $197-million deal, Williamson has only played six games this season and 190 games in his career, with contract guarantees tied to weight and game appearances. The Pelicans, plagued by injuries with 14 players missing a combined 137 games, currently sit last in the Western Conference with a 5-25 record and will face the Houston Rockets on Thursday.

Today’s Top Sportsbook/DFS Offers🎰

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To claim an offer, click the “Open Account” button on the corresponding banner, complete the sign up process, make a deposit, and start betting!

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FanDuel- Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets!

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To see all sportsbooks and offers available in your area, click HERE

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who was the last football player drafted out of San Jose State, going in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft to the Dallas Cowboys?

Question #2- Who holds the NBA record for points scored on Christmas Day, scoring 60 on December 25, 1984?

Question #3- The Seattle SuperSonics received two players drafted in the top-five of the 2007 NBA Draft. One of those players was Kevin Durant, but who was the other?

Anyone know what has happened on December 25th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 25th…

1995- Dallas Cowboys running back Emmitt Smith runs for 68 yards and one touchdown in a 37-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals. The touchdown gave Smith 25 total for the season, setting a new NFL record by an individual player. That record would last until 2000, the year Marshall Faulk scored 26, and the current record belongs to LaDainian Tomlinson at 31.

2008- The Los Angeles Lakers defeat the Boston Celtics by a score of 92-83 at the Staples Center. The win gave Lakers head coach Phil Jackson his 1,000th career victory, making him just the sixth head coach in NBA history to reach the milestone. Jackson went on to win 1,155 games in his career, the seventh-most in NBA history.

2022- The New Orleans Saints defeat the Minnesota Vikings by a score of 52-33 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans was led to victory by running back Alvin Kamara, who scored six touchdowns in the game. Kamara’s touchdown total tied an NFL record, which was originally set by Ernie Nevers in 1929.

1. Villiami Fehoko

2. Bernard King

3. Jeff Green

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