In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 11-2

Over/Under Predictions: 8-4-1

Spread Predictions: 5-8

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 2-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-1

Puck Line Predictions: 2-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Don’t Miss Out on Being a Premium Subscriber…

SportSense Premium Subscribers have access to betting tools that make them smarter sports bettors, and it costs just $0.50 per day to access.

This weekend’s Premium agenda includes…

• NBA player props and projected stat lines, like the example below (Posting today)

• Our NFL model’s Anytime TD Scorers for Week 14 (Posting today)

• Five additional NFL props and projected stat lines (Posted Sunday)

Our Premium tools and analysis make our subscribers smarter sports bettors, and provide an edge that you won’t receive elsewhere. Click the button below to join Premium today! ⬇️ 

College basketball is officially back in the newsletter, with 18 matchups including a ranked opponent on Saturday. Our model’s predictions for all 18 games can be found below.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Tennessee Volunteers

Model Predicts- Illinois ML, UNDER 145.5, Illinois +7

The Illinois Fighting Illini will hit the road for the second time this week, this time going to Knoxville, Tennessee to take on the Tennessee Volunteers.

Illinois enters tonight’s matchup with a 7-1 record and on a five-game winning streak, one that has been highlighted with wins over Rutgers and a ranked Florida Atlantic squad. Meanwhile, Tennessee owns a 5-3 record, coming out on the wrong side of many games after being forced to play a gauntlet of a schedule.

Tennessee is a rather heavy favorite on its home court despite the weaker record, but our model believes the Illini will keep the win streak going this afternoon. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Illinois Fighting Illini

• Started December with two big wins

  • Beat Rutgers by 18 on road, beat FAU by nine in Madison Square Garden

• Offense is plagued by turnovers and efficiency issues

  • 13.3 turnovers per game. Spikes to 15.5 on road

  • Shooting 33.5% from three and 62.5% from free throw line

• Defense is among best in nation

  • Rank 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom)

  • Opponents shooting just 35.7% against Illinois (3rd in NCAA)

Tennessee Volunteers

• Ranked No.20 in nation despite 5-3 record

  • Three losses to Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. Four of eight games have come against teams that are currently ranked

• Defense is heart and soul of this team

  • Rank second in adjusted defensive efficiency

  • Opponents shooting 39.7% overall and 31.8% from three

• Offense has had plenty of struggles

  • Rank 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency

  • Not a threat from deep- shoot 33.2% from three

What’s the Play?

Shooting efficiency has been an issue for both Illinois and Tennessee this season, but stellar defense has oftentimes made up for it. As a result, we’re going to roll with the under here.

Two key factors will come into play today, in addition to both team’s shooting woes. The first is that neither one of these teams is a threat to push the pace, with Illinois ranking 69th in adjusted tempo while Tennessee ranks 83rd.

The second is that neither team gets to the free throw line often, averaging less than 20 attempts from the charity stripe per game. Even if one does, we shouldn’t expect many points to be scored, especially since the Illini shoot below 63% on free throws.

This game has all the makings of a defensive battle. Our model projects roughly 142 points to be scored, giving us some room on the under.

The Play: Under 145.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Illinois- 7-0 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games

• TCU- 7-0 overall this season

• Colorado State- 9-0 overall this season, 5-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Illinois- Under is 5-3 this season, 1-0 as the away team

• Pennsylvania- Over is 5-3 this season, 3-2 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Charlotte- 6-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as an underdog

• Colorado State- 7-2 ATS this season, 3-2 ATS as the home team

💪 Bronny James to make season debut Sunday. USC freshman Bronny James is set to debut in Sunday's game after recovering from cardiac arrest during preseason, with coach Andy Enfield confirming his potential participation. Enfield anticipates James gaining clearance to play after a limited practice, hinting at a restricted playtime due to USC's 5-3 start before their game against Long Beach State on Sunday. Despite uncertainty around his playing minutes, excitement brews as James gears up for his return, aiming to contribute to USC's performance on the court.

😬 Tomlin dismissed from Kansas State program. Kansas State's forward Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who faced disorderly conduct charges over a month ago, has been removed from the team by university athletic director Gene Taylor. The move follows an indefinite suspension announced by head coach Jerome Tang after Tomlin faced disorderly conduct charges over a month ago. Tomlin's departure leaves a significant gap in the team, especially after their recent winning streak.

The In-Season Tournament finale will take place today in Las Vegas, a battle between the Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s game can be found below.

Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers

Model Predicts- Lakers ML, UNDER 241, Pacers +4

The Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers will square off in the first-ever In-Season Tournament Championship on Saturday night.

Indiana enters tonight’s matchup a perfect 6-0 in tournament play, most recently defeating the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks to earn a trip to Las Vegas. Similarly, the Lakers are also a perfect 6-0 since the tournament began about one month ago, and now own a 14-9 record for the season.

Our model expects a tightly contested game here, which should be expected with how well both teams have played this season. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Indiana Pacers

• Have cruised in tournament play

  • Own +10.0 Net Rating since tournament began

  • +19 point differential in last two tournament games

• Starting to clean things up on defense

  • 110.5 Defensive Rating in last two games. Significant improvement from 119.8 rating for season

  • Opponents shooting 46.1% overall and 32.4% from three in last two games

• Offense is consistently elite

  • 127.4 Offensive Rating in tournament games- 1st in NBA

Los Angeles Lakers

• Have been defensive force in tournament games

  • 102.3 Defensive Rating since tourney began

  • Opponents are shooting 40.6% from field and 33.0% from three

• Also getting job done offensively

  • Shooting 50.6% overall and 44.9% from three

  • Averaging 122.2 points per game

• Scoring depth has been key to offensive success in tournament

  • Bench averaging 42.3 points per game in tourney, up from 31.0 in regular season games

What’s the Play?

The Pacers and Lakers have both seen a massive pop in offense in tournament games, with Indiana averaging 132.7 points per game and L.A. averaging 122.2. However, we are going to roll with the under here.

We’ve seen the defensive intensity pick up as the tournament has gone on, as this stage of the tournament comes with a playoff atmosphere. We’ve already discussed the huge improvement from Indiana on the defensive end over the last two games, and in that same two-game stretch we’ve seen the Lakers post an incredible 95.5 Defensive Rating. As a result, the under is 2-0 for both teams in the last two tournament games.

Even though Indiana and L.A. are two of the most efficient teams at the moment, we should expect that defensive intensity to continue today, leading to a low-coring contest. This total has already jumped five points since opening, providing even more value on the under as our model projects roughly 239 points to be scored.

The Play: Under 241 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Los Angeles Lakers- 14-9 overall this season, 6-0 in tournament games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Indiana Pacers- Under is 2-0 in last two games with average total of 240.5

• Los Angeles Lakers- Under is 2-0 in last two games with average total of 215.5

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Indiana Pacers- 12-8 against the spread (ATS) this season, 7-3 ATS as an underdog

🚀 Rockets beat Nuggets for first road win. Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet led the Rockets to their first road win, holding off Denver despite nearly squandering a 25-point lead in the fourth quarter. Nikola Jokic struggled with his shooting, going 9 for 26 from the field, as the Nuggets suffered their first home loss in 10 games. Houston, securing a 114-106 victory, halted their eight-game road losing streak, surviving Denver's late 18-point surge.

👋 Brown gets ejected in win over Knicks. Jaylen Brown was ejected for the first time in his career during the Celtics' 133-123 win against the Knicks. Brown attributed the ejection to an overly emotional referee, receiving two technical fouls for disputing calls in the fourth quarter. Despite Brown's ejection after scoring 17 points, Boston maintained their unbeaten record at TD Garden, with Derrick White's 30-point performance leading the team to victory.

After a slow day of hockey yesterday, the NHL has given us 12 games to occupy us today. Our model’s predictions for those 12 matchups are below.

Vegas Golden Knights @ Dallas Stars

Model Predicts- Stars ML, UNDER 6, Golden Knights +1.5

The Dallas Stars will return home from a three-game road trip on Saturday, with the Vegas Golden Knights waiting at their doorstep in what should be a great Western Conference battle.

Dallas’ road trip was far from successful, posting an 0-3 record after losses to the Lightning, Panthers, and Capitals. However, Dallas is still 15-7-3 this season, while Vegas enters tonight with a 17-5-5 record after winning three of its last four games.

There isn’t much separating these two teams despite Dallas’ recent struggles, and that makes our model believe we have a tightly contested, low-scoring contest on our hands. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Vegas Golden Knights

• Have been best team in NHL this season

  • 17-5-5 record, 39 total points

• Offense has been nearly unstoppable in last four contests

  • Own 4.10 xGF/60 in 5-on-5 situations in last four games- 1st in NHL

  • Generating 17.66 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5

• Expected goalie- Logan Thompson

  • .934 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 8th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +9.0

Dallas Stars

• Have struggled defensively over last three games

  • 0-3 record, -6 goal differential

  • Have allowed at least four goals in all three contests

• However, defense has gotten unlucky and is due for positive regression

  • GA/60 in 5-on-5 in last three games is 3.94, but xGF/60 in same timeframe is 2.70

  • Surrendering just 27 shots on goal per game during losing streak, down from 31.3 season average

• Expected goalie- Jake Oettinger

  • .902 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 24th in GSAx (+3.0)

What’s the Play?

Dallas’ defense has looked awful, while Vegas’ offense has looked fantastic. That may seem like a recipe for goals, but we agree with our model that this should be a low-scoring game.

One thing that Dallas has done well during its losing skid is limit pressure on net, as evidenced by the significant drop in shots on goal allowed. Unfortunately, Jake Oettinger and Scott Wedgewood haven’t stepped up to the challenge in net, but that is far from the norm, as Oettinger has been one of the best goaltenders this season and still owns a 2.67 GAA despite surrendering nine goals in his last two appearances.

Vegas is also a great defense, ranking first in GA/60 in 5-on-5 this season, and Logan Thompson has had even more success in net than Oettinger. The first two meetings between these powerhouses saw five and three goals, and we expect another low-scoring today.

The Play: Under 6 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Red Wings- 14-7-4 overall this season, 8-3-3 as the home team

• New York Rangers- 18-5-1 overall this season, 10-3-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Vegas Golden Knights- Under is 17-9-1 this season with average total of 5.67

• Colorado Avalanche- Over is 13-10-3 this season with average total of 6.50

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 18-8 this season

🔄 Blues trade Bortuzzo to Islanders. The St. Louis Blues traded defenseman Robert Bortuzzo to the New York Islanders for a 2024 seventh-round draft pick,. Bortuzzo, who joined the Blues in 2014-15, provided defensive support but played a limited role, notably contributing to the Blues' 2019 Stanley Cup win. The Islanders sought defensive reinforcement due to multiple injuries, including placing Ryan Pulock on injured reserve and missing Adam Pelech and Sebastian Aho since November 24.