In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-7

Over/Under Predictions: 5-6-1

Run Line Predictions: 8-4

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There are a plethora of NCAA football games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. Our model has predictions for 17 of those matchups.

Ole Miss @ Alabama

Model Predicts- Alabama ML, UNDER 56, Ole Miss +7

The Ole Miss Rebels will travel to Tuscaloosa, Alabama to square off against the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday.

Ole Miss enters today’s matchup with a perfect 3-0 record, defeating Tulane, Mercer, and Georgia Tech during the first month of the season. Meanwhile, Alabama is just 2-1 after losing to the Texas Longhorns two weeks ago.

Alabama’s revolving door at quarterback is raising some questions about their ceiling, and our model thinks that will allow Ole Miss to keep this game close. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Ole Miss Rebels

• Electric offense through three games

  • Rank 11th in yards per game (526.7), 8th in yards per play (8.19),and 4th in points per game (52.7)

  • 22.2 seconds per play- 13th in nation

• Explosive pass game is doing most of the work

  • 17 total pass plays that went for 30+ yards. 7 that went for 40+ yards (cfbstats)

  • Rank 3rd in yards per pass attempt (11.9)

  • QB Jaxson Dart- completing 66.2% of passes, 12.5 yards per pass attempt, 7 TDS to 1 interception, 202.45 rating

• Defense putting up impressive numbers as well

  • creating a havoc event (tackle for loss, deflection, turnover, etc.) on 31.1% of plays

  • Surrendering 4.4 yards per play (25th)

  • 10 total sacks through three games

Alabama Crimson Tide

• Revolving door at QB

  • Started year with Jalen Milroe, but went to Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson last week

  • Back to Milroe today

• Pass game is almost nonexistent

  • Rank 101st in pass yards per game (196). Team completion percentage sits at 55.4%

  • 33% success rate on passing downs

  • Only four plays have gone for 40+ yards. Zero have gone for more than 50

• Defense has held in there, but can improve in some areas

  • Only creating a havoc event on 17.2% of snaps

  • Opponent 3rd down conversion rate- 35.29 % (55th)

  • 8 sacks and 19 tackles for loss in three games

What’s the Play?

It’s rare to see so much uncertainly surrounding Alabama, as the Crimson Tide have been one of the best teams in college football for the last decade. However, the uncertainty makes them a bit of a liability from a betting standpoint, so we agree with our model that Ole Miss can keep this game close.

Jaxson Dart and the Rebels have been very efficient on the offensive side of the ball. Their success rate on passing downs (34%) could be better, but on all plays that success rate rises to 51%, showing that this offense can attack in many different ways.

It’s tough to win in Tuscaloosa, but we saw Texas do it a few weeks ago, which was another team that has far more stability at the QB position. We’ll take the Rebels on the spread as a road underdog.

The Play: Ole Miss +7 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Florida State- 3-0 overall this season, 1-0 as the away team and against ACC opponents

• Oregon State- 3-0 overall this season, 1-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Florida- Under is 2-0-1 this season, 1-1 as the home team

• Ohio State- Under is 2-1 overall this season, average combined total in those games is 47

• Penn State- Over is 2-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma- 3-0 against the spread (ATS), winning by average of 46.33 points per game

• Ole Miss- 3-0 ATS this season, 1-0 ATS as underdog in 2022

🤕 Cam Rising likely out another week. Utah's star quarterback, Cam Rising, will miss the upcoming game against UCLA despite received clearance to practice without restrictions in early September and received positive feedback from Coach Kyle Whittingham. Rising is still recovering from an ACL tear suffered in the Rose Bowl, giving way for backup Nate Johnson to start for the second consecutive week. Johnson, a versatile quarterback with exceptional speed, impressed with a game-tying touchdown in a comeback win against Baylor and continued to shine as the starter, boasting impressive statistics and leading Utah to a 3-0 record without Rising this season.

💪 Harbaugh returns to sidelines for Michigan. Michigan is currently 3-0 following a relatively undemanding non-conference schedule, but the victories didn't live up to earlier expectations. However, head coach Jim Harbaugh will return to the sidelines this weekend for a Big 10 showdown against Rutgers, which many believe will provide an additional spark for the Wolverines. Harbaugh had missed the first three weeks of the season due a self-imposed suspension following an NCAA investigation into recruiting violations.

There are 15 MLB games schedule to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to postponements and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, OVER 8.5, Cubs -1.5

The Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs will square off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday.

Chicago took the win in Game 1 with ease, cruising to a 6-0 victory. The win proved to be a large one, as Chicago now sits in the final wild card spot in the National League and owns a one game lead over the Marlins.

There’s no doubt who the better team is here, and our model expects the Cubs to pick up another win today and extend their playoff hopes. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Colorado Rockies

• Have struggled at the plate in September

  • Rank 28th in wRC+ (79) and 20th in OPS (.714)

  • However, own .324 BABIP this month- 2nd best in MLB

• Offense has gotten slightly better over last five games

  • wRC+ has risen to 81, BABIP to .331

  • .328 on base %- 13th in MLB

  • 4.20 runs per game

  • Still 0-5 overall in that stretch

• Chris Flexen (1-8 record, 7.19 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 8.41 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over last 18.2 innings

  • Doesn’t generate many swings and misses- bottom 25% of MLB in Whiff and Strikeout rate

  • Vulnerable to hard contact (41.5% Hard Hit rate) and putting the ball on the barrel (9.0% Barrel rate)

Chicago Cubs

• 2-5 overall in last seven games, but offense is still red hot

  • 6.43 runs per game in that stretch

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (124) and OPS (.825), per FanGraphs

  • 12 home runs- 5th most in MLB

• Marcus Stroman (10-8 record, 3.76 ERA) will make start on mound

  • Will be first start since July 31st

  • Struggled on mound prior to injury- 15.30 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in last ten innings before being placed on IL

  • Forces lots of ground balls, but is vulnerable to contact (22.4% Whiff rate) and struggles with his control (9.3% Walk rate)

  • 4.06 xERA indicates more regression is on the way

What’s the Play?

Stroman has pitched out of the bullpen for three innings in preparation for this start, allowing three total base runners and one run. However, it remains to be seen how he will do for a longer stretch of time, and we think Colorado will get some runs off of him as he knocks off more rust.

Chicago is also set to score in bunches today against Chris Flexen, who can’t keep opposing hitters off the base paths. That combined with Chicago’s recent display of power should lead to another strong offensive showing.

We’ll fade both pitchers today and go with the over here, which our model gives a 56.58% chance of hitting.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Yankees- 78-76 overall this season, 6-4 in last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 88-66 overall this season, 4-0 in last four games

• Tampa Bay Rays- 94-61 overall this season, 26-19 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Toronto today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 76-73-5 this season, 5-2 in last seven games

• Texas Rangers- Over is 82-63-8 this season, 46-27-6 as the home team

• San Diego Padres- Under is 79-66-9 this season, 44-30-3 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 78-77 overall this season, 21-11 as a home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

📝 Ronald Acuna Jr. keeps writing history. Atlanta Braves' Ronald Acuña Jr. joined an exclusive group in Major League history by hitting his 40th home run and stealing his 40th base of the season during a game against the Washington Nationals. He became only the fifth player to achieve this feat, joining the ranks of Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Jose Canseco. Acuña, a frontrunner for the National League MVP title, also set a record as the first player with 160 homers and 160 stolen bases at the age of 25 or younger, further solidifying his remarkable career achievements.

🎉 Twins clinch AL Central. The Minnesota Twins have officially claimed first place in the AL Central following a 8-6 victory over the Los Angeles Angels. Pablo López pitched six innings and contributed to the victory, and Alex Kirilloff became the 12th Twins player this season to reach double-digit home runs. The Twins secured their third division crown in five seasons under manager Rocco Baldelli, but Minnesota still has plenty of work to do as its postseason history has been marred by 18 consecutive losses.

💪 Rangers abck in first place in AL West. The Texas Rangers surged ahead in the AL West after defeating the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros' loss to the Kansas City Royals, moving half a game ahead of Houston in the division. Houston dropped to third place in the wild-card race, trailing the Toronto Blue Jays, who secured the second wild-card spot with a victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rangers' resilience and timely hitting propelled them back into the division lead for the first time since August, while the Mariners remained in contention for a playoff spot despite a loss.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Chip Kelly had a brief stint as an NFL head coach with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, but is now the head coach for what Pac 12 school?

Question #2- Puka Nacua has taken the NFL by storm and has been Matthew Stafford’s favorite target through two weeks. What two schools did Nacua attend before playing in the NFL?

Question #3- Who was the last NBA player to be selected out of high school?

Anyone know what has happened on September 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 23rd…

1997- The Seattle Mariners record their 258th home run of the season, setting a new MLB record. Ken Griffey Jr. led the way for the Mariners, launching 56 homers in a season where Seattle would extend their MLB record to 264. However, that home run total now ranks seventh in league history, with the 2019 Twins now owning the record (307).

2018- New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees completes his 6,301st career pass attempt. The completion was to Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas, and it was significant because Brees broke Brett Favre’s NFL record of 6,300 career completions. Brees would end his career with 7,142 completions, which now ranks second all-time behind Tom Brady (7,753).

2022- St. Louis Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols hits two home runs and records five RBIs in a 11-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The performance gave Pujols 700 homers for his career, becoming just the fourth player in MLB history to reach the mark. He would go on to retire with 703 home runs, the fourth most in league history.

1. UCLA

2. Washington, BYU

3. Amir Johnson