In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-1

Run Line Predictions: 1-2

3-star Predictions: 0-1

🤕 Cooper Kupp suffers injury setback. Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp's return from a hamstring injury has faced a setback, and coach Sean McVay mentioned that his status is being evaluated day by day. McVay emphasized the team's focus on Kupp's complete recovery for optimal performance, acknowledging that their strength lies in his availability. Kupp, initially injured on August 1, aimed to be ready for the season opener against the Seattle Seahawks on September 10, but McVay's stance on his availability remains uncertain.

🚚 Vikings back up the BRINKS truck for Hockenson. T.J. Hockenson has secured a lasting spot in Minnesota, agreeing to a four-year contract extension with the Vikings worth $68.5 million that surpasses all other tight ends with an average yearly value of $17.125 million. After his impactful trade to the Vikings from the Lions in 2022, Hockenson swiftly justified the move by contributing 60 receptions, 519 yards, and three touchdowns in 10 games, aiding the NFC North champions. Despite missing training camp due to an ear infection, Minnesota's investment in Hockenson reflects their confidence, and attention now turns to a possible extension for leading 2022 receiver Justin Jefferson.

📝 Dolphins place plethora of players on IR. The Miami Dolphins have placed running back Jeff Wilson Jr. on injured reserve, sidelining him for at least the first four games of the 2023 regular season. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey and offensive guard Robert Jones have also been moved to IR, with all three players eligible to return for the Dolphins' game against the New York Giants on October 8. Coach Mike McDaniel cited Wilson's unexpected IR placement as a result of a midsection injury compounded by finger issues, emphasizing that his inability to protect himself led to the decision.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to today’s Cubs/Reds doubleheader, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals

Model Predicts- Pirates ML, OVER 8.5, Cardinals +1.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals will begin a three-game series on Friday night in what should be a great NL Central battle.

Neither of these teams have much to fight for at this point in the season, but both will enter today’s matchup with momentum on their side. Pittsburgh most recently swept the Kansas City Royals, and St. Louis took two of three games against the San Diego Padres earlier in the week.

Pittsburgh has dominated the season series up to this point, and our model gives them a slight edge again this evening. Let’s dive into why that is and where our model sees value in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh began the 2023 season as one of the best teams in baseball, winning 20 of their first 29 games.

However, as their 61-73 record indicates, the Pirates were unable to build on all the early season momentum, and now the team finds itself 13.5 games back in the NL Central and 9.0 games back of the final Wild Card spot.

The non-existent playoff hopes haven’t stopped the Pirates from stringing together some solid performances over the last two weeks though. Pittsburgh is 6-4 in its last ten games, and in that time ranks in the top half of the MLB in wRC+, BABIP, on base %, strikeout rate and walk rate, per FanGraphs, leading to 4.9 runs per game.

That level of offense has been present all year long against the Cardinals too. Pittsburgh is 7-3 against St. Louis this season, posting a +19 run differential in those ten games, a sign of a team that has the advantage across the board.

Mitch Keller (11-8 record, 4.01 ERA) will start on the mound for the Buccos tonight. Keller has had a rollercoaster of a season, but things have stabilized in recent weeks, with the right-hander posting a 2.16 ERA across his last four starts. His strikeout rate and walk rate in those contests have improved dramatically as well, with Keller striking out 28.2% of opposing hitters and walking just 4.9%, per FanGraphs.

St. Louis Cardinals

Many may consider the Pittsburgh Pirates’ season a disappointment after their hot start, but the reality is that the Buccos weren’t supposed to be good this season.

St. Louis, on the other hand, was a team that had high hopes following a Wild Card round loss to Philadelphia last season. However, the Cardinals were never in the running to make it back to the postseason, going 10-19 through the first 29 games and entering today at 58-76 and in last place in the NL Central.

What’s the root cause of the struggles? Well, once you start to dig into the stats, it becomes very obvious that this team has zero stability on the mound.

According to FanGraphs, St. Louis ranks 23rd in the majors in Team ERA (4.71) and 21st in xFIP (4.41), massive declines from the team’s 3.31 ERA and 3.89 xFIP a season ago. St. Louis saw even more pitching regression in the month of August, posting a brutal 5.28 ERA and 4.57 xFIP.

Dakota Hudson (5-1 record, 4.41 ERA) will make an attempt to reverse the downward trend on the mound in tonight’s matchup. However, Hudson posted a 4.62 ERA in August, and his 5.26 xERA indicates more regression is on the way.

What’s the Play?

Hudson’s 5-1 record is appealing on the surface, but the underlying numbers indicate that he is struggling on the mound. As a result, we agree with our model that Pittsburgh can tack on another win against St. Louis tonight.

Hudson’s biggest issue is inability to avoid contact. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 13% of the MLB in both Whiff and Strikeout rate, and his 43.9% Hard Hit rate and 90.5 mph average exit velocity indicate that baseballs are getting smacked around with him on the mound. Thats a problem against a Pirates team that has dominated the Cardinals this season and is trending upwards at the plate

Pittsburgh has the upper hand on the mound with a red hot Keller, and their offense has been good enough in recent weeks to give us confidence tonight.

The Play: Pirates ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Seattle Mariners- 76-57 overall this season, 37-28 as the away team

• Detroit Tigers- 60-74 overall this season, 25-15 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Chicago tonight)

• Pittsburgh Pirates- 61-73 overall this season, 7-3 against the Cardinals this season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 66-59-8 this season, 36-24-6 as the home team

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Over is 72-58-4 this season, second highest win percentage in MLB

• San Diego Padres- Under is 70-56-9 this season, 37-27-3 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 81-52 overall this season, 15-5 as a road favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

➕ Guardians add several Angels players from waivers. The Cleveland Guardians have strengthened their pitching staff by claiming three prominent pitchers, Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez, off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels. Despite being five games behind the division-leading Minnesota Twins, the Guardians surprised observers by acquiring these pitchers to enhance their competitiveness in the American League Central. The Angels' decision to unload these players comes after a disappointing August, in which they dropped out of playoff contention, and was aimed at saving costs to dip below the luxury tax threshold.

🟥 Reds make waiver moves to strengthen playoff push. Continuing their bid for a postseason position, the Cincinnati Reds have bolstered their lineup by claiming center fielder Harrison Bader from the New York Yankees and slugger Hunter Renfroe from the Los Angeles Angels through waiver claims. Bader, who played 80 games this season with the Yankees, had an injury-marred season, while Renfroe, who hit 19 homers for the Angels, was among the players waived by the team. Cincinnati's moves contribute to their pursuit of the third National League wild-card spot, sitting just one game behind the San Francisco Giants.

Ronald Acuna Jr. ties the knot, makes history with grand slam. Braves' superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. achieved the historic milestone of becoming the first player in MLB history to hit 30-plus homers and steal 60-plus bases in a single season, surprising many on the same day he got married. The grand slam enabled the Brave to defeat the Dodgers 8-7 in a thrilling game that highlighted Acuña and Mookie Betts as top NL MVP Award candidates. With this win, the Braves have taken a five-game lead over the Dodgers, potentially securing home-field advantage in the NL postseason, and Acuña is on track to possibly achieve a 40-40 season, an elite feat accomplished only four times in MLB history.

👑 Javale McGee signing with Sacramento. JaVale McGee is set to join the Sacramento Kings, as reported by The Athletic's Shams Charania. After an unsatisfactory season with the Dallas Mavericks, where he went from being a starting player to out of rotation, McGee was waived with two years left on his contract. Ironically, he will be taking the spot in Sacramento that was vacated by Richaun Holmes, the player who displaced him in Dallas, and will compete for playing time in a frontcourt that includes other established players like Alex Len and newly signed forward Sasha Vezenkov.

💪 Utah defeats Florida without QB 1. Utah showcased its formidable defense in the season opener against Florida, winning 24-11 despite starting quarterback Cam Rising being sidleined. Bryson Barnes, who stepped in for the injured Rising, made an immediate impact with a 70-yard touchdown pass on the first play of the game and a rushing score. The Utes' defense dominated, forcing turnovers and recording five sacks, while Florida struggled to move the ball effectively and convert on third downs under new signal called Graham Mertz.

⛸ Patrick Kane returns to ice after surgery. NHL free agent forward Patrick Kane has provided an update on his recovery from hip resurfacing surgery, stating that he has been on the ice about 20 times and is ahead of the initial four-to-six-month recovery projection. He expressed excitement about his progress, feeling better on the ice, and getting back to his old self. Kane, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, is anticipating a doctor's appointment to potentially be cleared for contact, and while he could potentially return early, he intends to stick with the six-month rehabilitation timetable to ensure he is at peak condition.

In the spirit of college football’s return, we’ve given you the logos of the last five college football national championship winners, and it is you job to guess the starting quarterback of each team.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on September 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 1st…

1964- San Francisco Giants reliever Masanori Murakami becomes the first Japanese-born player to make an appearance in the MLB. Murakami performed well in his short time on the mound, throwing a scoreless inning in a 4-1 loss to the New York Mets. However, Murakami would only play in the MLB until 1965, posting a 5-1 record and 3.43 ERA in that time.

2006- Roger Goodell begins his tenure as the commissioner of the NFL. Goodell began his NFL career as an administrative intern under then-commissioner Pete Rozelle in 1982. He would then spend time with the New York Jets, but would move back to the league office a short time later, eventually be naming the NFL’s COO in 2001. Five years later he was promoted to commissioner, where he still remains today.

2019- Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander throws a no-hitter in a 2-0 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. The right-hander struck out 14 in the performance, the third no-hitter that Verlander threw in his career and first since 2011. Verlander is still a member of the Astros and played a key role in their World Series campaign last season, but spent the first part of the 2023 season with the Mets.

2018-2019- Trevor Lawrence

2019-2020- Joe Burrow

2020-2021- Mac Jones

2021-2022- Stetson Bennett

2022-2023- Stetson Bennett