In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, October 6, 2023.

There are plenty of football games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening in the NCAA, and our model has predictions for 20 of today’s matchups. You can find all of those predictions below.

LSU Tigers @ Missouri Tigers

Model Predicts- Missouri ML, OVER 63.5, Missouri +5.5

The LSU Tigers will hit the road for the second consecutive week to take on the Missouri Tigers.

LSU enters this matchup as the No.23 ranked team in the nation, despite two losses this season to Florida State and Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Missouri sits at No.21 and is a perfect 5-0.

Defense has not been LSU’s strong suit this season, and as a result our model is predicting Missouri to win as a home underdog in a high-scoring contest. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

LSU Tigers

• Defense is vulnerable to explosive plays

  • Have allowed 13 plays to go for 40+ yards this season

    • 11 of those plays were via a pass

• Passing defense is largest flaw

  • Ranks outside top 100 in pass yards allowed per game (260.2) and opponent yards per play (6.5)

  • 13 passing touchdowns is third most in FBS (cfbstats)

• Luckily have one of best offenses in nation

  • Own 55% success rate on all downs, 45% on passing downs

  • Pass offense- Rank 6th in pass yards per game (353.4) and 5th in pass TDs (16). 12 pass plays of 40+ yards

  • Rush offense- 27th in rush yards per game (198.0), 14th in yards per rush attempt (5.5)

  • Jayden Daniels- 4th in QB Rating, completing 73.1% of passes

    • Not afraid to go deep- 10.7 yards per pass attempt

Missouri Tigers

• One of more explosive offenses in NCAA

  • 13 total plays that have gone for 40+ yards

    • 12 of those plays were via the pass

• QB Brady Cook- 8th in QB Rating, completing 74.5% of his passes

  • 11 TD passes to 0 interceptions

  • Throws ball down field in large chucks- 10.4 yards per attempt

• Defense in vulnerable in some areas

  • Have allowed at least 21 points in three straight weeks

  • Rank 89th in pass yards per game (242.4)

  • However, holding opponents to just 29% success rate on passing downs

• Have played in close games at home

  • Average margin of victory for last three home games- 4.67 points

What’s the Play?

It’s clear that the LSU offense can put points on the board regardless of what team stands in their way. However, their defense has also shown that it can’t prevent its opponent from doing the same thing, so we agree with our model on the over here.

Both Jayden Daniels and Brady Cook are willing to throw the ball down field, and as a result both LSU and Missouri have become two of the most explosive offenses in the NCAA. Neither team should have a problem doing so once again this afternoon.

We expect a shootout to take place today, especially when you consider that another loss would end LSU’s season. We’ll back the over in this spot.

The Play: Over 63.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• LSU- 3-2 overall this season, 0-2 as the away team/on neutral field

• Missouri- 5-0 overall this season, 4-0 as the home team

• UCLA- 3-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• LSU- Over is 5-0 this season with average point total of 75.0 points

• Arizona- Under is 5-0 this season, 0-2 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma- 5-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2021

• Washington State- 3-1 ATS this season, 2-0 ATS as an underdog

🎉 Oklahoma State pulls off home upset over Kansas State. Oklahoma State secured a 29-21 victory against Kansas State on Friday, with standout performances by Ollie Gordon, who ran for 136 yards and a touchdown, and Alex Hale, who tied a school record with five made field goals. The Cowboys, who had been on a two-game losing streak, benefited from a solid defensive effort, securing the win with no turnovers and a successful fake punt. On the other hand, Kansas State struggled offensively, with quarterback Alan Bowman throwing for 235 yards and two interceptions, both of which were returned for touchdowns.

💪 Nebraska picks up first Big 10 win of season. Nebraska's football coach, Matt Rhule, took a calculated risk by organizing a demanding Sunday practice just days before their game against Illinois to motivate the team after a previous blowout loss. The Huskers responded positively to the challenge, showcasing an impressive combination of solid defense and timely offense in a 20-7 victory over Illinois. The team's renewed mindset was evident, particularly on the defensive side, as they shut down Illinois in the second half, despite some turnovers on offense.

There are four MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for all four matchups. Those predictions can be found below.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Model Predicts- Braves ML, UNDER 8.5, Phillies +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies will take their talents south to Atlanta, Georgia to take on the Braves on Saturday.

Philly is coming off a sweep of the Miami Marlins in the wild card round, outscoring Miami 11-2 over two games. Meanwhile, Atlanta has not played since last Sunday, which was a loss to the Washington Nationals.

Our model is leaning toward the Braves to win this game at home, but it still expects the Phillies to keep the score tight. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Dominated wild card round

  • +9 run differential and 18 hits across two games

  • Have now outscored opponents 20-3 in three games this month

• Power has been on full display over last month

  • Have hit 48 home runs since September 1st- 3rd most in MLB

  • Rank 13th in OPS in that time

  • However, 26.1% strikeout rate shows some struggles at the plate

• Ranger Suárez (4-6 record, 4.18 ERA) will get the start on the mound

  • Great at generating weak contact at ground balls

    • 36.1% hard hit rate and 48.8% ground ball rate

  • Enters playoffs in midst of slump- has allowed 10 earned runs and 14 hits in last 11.1 innings

Atlanta Braves

• Best offense in MLB over last month

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (124), 12th in BABIP (.3030), and 1st in OPS (.843) since September 1st, per FanGraphs

• However, pitching staff looked vulnerable at end of season

  • Own 5.61 ERA since September 1st- 3rd highest in MLB

  • Surrendered 23 runs to the Nationals in last series of season

  • Bad in late stages of game- Bullpen ERA of 5.32 since September 1st

• Spencer Strider (20-5 record, 3.86 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 5.23 ERA over last three starts

  • Great strikeout pitcher- 36.8% strikeout rate ranks in top 1% of MLB

  • However, owns 34.9% ground ball rate- bottom 13% of MLB this season

What’s the Play?

Atlanta is going to be a heavy favorite in every game that Spencer Strider is on the mound. However, we agree with our model that the Phillies can keep things close here.

Striders inability to keep balls out of the air has made him vulnerable to the deep ball this season, and his mistakes in that department usually compound. For example, he has allowed four homers over his last six starts, surrendering at least three earned runs in five of those appearances. That will likely pose a problem today against a Phillies team that has launched the ball over the wall with consistency over the last month.

Suarez isn’t the ideal guy to have on the mound, but we think he can do enough against a Braves team that has not played in almost a week while his offense builds on its momentum from the wild card round. We’ll take Philly on the run line here.

The Play: Phillies +1.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 101-61 overall this season, 49-32 as the home team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 100-62 overall this season, 34-18 against division opponents (Play NL West rival Arizona today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 84-70-10 this season

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over was 89-65-8 in regular season, second highest win % in MLB

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Phillies- Run line is 19-18 as a road underdog this season

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤕 Alcantara set to miss all of 2024 season. Miami Marlins' ace Sandy Alcantara, who won the NL Cy Young Award last year, announced on social media that he will miss the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery to repair his right elbow's ulnar collateral ligament injury. Despite the setback, Alcantara expressed his determination to return stronger and continue supporting his team, expressing his love for Miami and Marlins fans. In 2022, Alcantara had an outstanding season, winning the Cy Young Award with a 14-9 record and 2.28 ERA, but saw his ERA rise to 4.14 this season.

🏆Rangers put three players in running for Hank Aaron award. Three players from the Texas Rangers, including Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia, have been named finalists for the Hank Aaron Award, which recognizes outstanding offensive performance during the regular season in both the American League and National League. These Rangers played a significant role in the team's improved performance this season, helping them reach the playoffs and beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the wild card round. The list of finalists also includes notable players from other AL and NL teams, most notably Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Manhattan is one of the 5 boroughs of New York City, but it is also the name of a town in the midwest that is home to what university?

Question #2- Before Juwan Johnson played in the NFL, he played college football at two schools. Can you name both?

Question #3- The largest contract signed by an MLB player is worth $426.5 million. What player signed that contract?

Anyone know what has happened on October 7th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 7th…

1984- Chicago Bears legend Walter Payton surpasses Jim Brown to become the NFL’s all-time leading rusher. Payton accomplished the feat against the New Orleans Saints, a game in which he tallied 154 yards on the ground in a 20-7 victory. Payton would retire with 16,726 rushing yards, ranking him second on the all-time list.

1992- The Tampa Bay Lightning become the first expansion team in NHL history to win their opening game. Tampa Bay dominated in their first matchup in the league, defeating the Chicago Blackhawks 7-3. However, the wins were few and far between for the remained of the season, with the Lightning ending the year with a 23-54-7 record.

2012- New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees connects with Devery Henderson for a touchdown pass in the saints 31-24 win over the San Diego Chargers. The TD pass marked the 49th consecutive game in which Brees threw a touchdown, breaking a record previously held by Johnny Unitas. Brees would extend that streak to 54 games, which remains the record today.

1. Kansas State

2. Penn State, Oregon

3. Mike Trout