In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter sponsored by SportSense Premium…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 4-5

Over/Under Predictions: 3-5-1

Spread Predictions: 5-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 3-3

Over/Under Predictions: 2-3-1

Puck Line Predictions: 5-1

Featured Matchup: 0-0

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Today’s agenda includes props for several NBA players, and we will be releasing props for tomorrow’s NFL games. Join Premium today! ⬇️

There are plenty of college football games scheduled to take place today, and our model has predictions for every matchup featuring a ranked opponent, plus Iowa State and BYU. You can find all of our model’s predictions below.

USC Trojans @ Oregon Ducks

Model Predicts- Oregon ML, UNDER 77, USC +16

The USC Trojans will make the journey to Eugene, Oregon on Saturday to take on the Ducks in a great Pac 12 matchup.

USC enters today’s matchup with a 7-3 record, suffering losses to Notre Dame, Utah, and Washington in three of the las four weeks. Meanwhile, Oregon is still in the hunt for a national title, owning an 8-1 record, with the Ducks’ only loss coming at the hands of Washington at the end of October.

The collapse of USC is something that many didn’t see coming, and our model thinks it will continue today. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

USC Trojans

• Disastrous last four weeks

  • Three losses to Notre Dame, Utah, and Washington. Win was by one point against Cal

• Defense has been shredded all year

  • Rank 108th in FBS in yards per play (6.11), 123rd in opponent yards per game (436), per cfbstats

  • Surrendering 43.8 points per game over last four weeks

  • Made massive change- fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch

• Offense is still moving ball well

  • At least 497 total yards of offense in each of last two games

  • Still rank inside top-8 in yards per play and yards per game

Oregon Ducks

• Elite offense led by Heisman Trophy hopeful Box Nix

  • Rank 2nd in yards per game (538.7), 3rd in yards per play (7.74)

  • 56% success rate

  • Explosive offense- 21 plays of 40+ yards this season

• Offense is backed by great defensive unit

  • Holding opponents to 25% success rate on passing downs

  • Create havoc event (deflection, tackle for loss, etc.) on 18.7% of plays. 15th in sacks per game

  • Surrender 4.69 yards per play

What’s the Play?

On paper this game has all the makings of a high-scoring game. Both USC and Oregon have a quarterback and receivers that can take the top off, and the Trojans’ defense has been nonexistent over the last month.

However, we agree with our model to back the under here.

It’s likely we see the Trojans come out onto the field today with a different defensive scheme, one that Oregon does not have the ability to prepare for. That will certainly help keep an explosive Ducks offense in check during the early stages, and we have confidence in Oregon’s defense to do the same against the Trojans.

This total opened up at 71 before ballooning to its current total of 77. That gives the under some value in this matchup, and our model thinks it’s a good play as it is projecting 74 points to be scored.

The Play: Under Under 77 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Alabama- 8-1 overall this season, 3-0 as the away team

• Kansas- 7-2 overall this season, 5-0 as the home team

• Oregon- 8-1 overall this season, 5-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Colorado- Over is 3-2 as the home team this season

• Oregon- Under is 5-4 this season with average total of 63.44

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Tennessee- 6-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-2 ATS against SEC opponents

😬 NCAA suspends Harbaugh for rest of regular season. The Big Ten has suspended Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh for the remainder of the regular season due to the school's in-person sign-stealing ring, violating the conference's sportsmanship policy amid an ongoing NCAA investigation. Harbaugh and the university sought a temporary restraining order to prevent the suspension, arguing the process was rushed and lacked due diligence. The suspension allows Harbaugh to coach during the week but bans him from the game venue on game days, with the judge possibly ruling on the restraining order before Michigan's critical game against Penn State on Saturday.

💪 Quinn Ewers returning to play TCU. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who suffered a shoulder sprain last month, is set to return to action as the starting quarterback against TCU, according to UT head coach Steve Sarkisian. Ewers missed the last two games, during which Maalik Murphy filled in and led the Longhorns to a 2-0 record. Despite Murphy's successful performances, Ewers is expected to start Saturday's game, marking his first appearance since the injury, with Sarkisian praising Ewers' focus and stating that Murphy's experience provides the team with a reliable backup.

A slow Saturday of NBA basketball is set to take place today, with just four games scheduled. Our model’s predictions for all four matchups can be found below.

Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 222, Raptors +8

The Toronto Raptors will end a four-game road trip on Saturday night with a stop in Boston to Battle the Celtics.

Toronto has found some success on its current road trip, taking home wins against the Spurs and Mavericks after coming up short against the 76ers. The Raptors now own a 4-4 record, while Boston sits at 6-2 following a win over the Brooklyn Nets last night.

Toronto has been traveling for quite some time now, but the Raptors have the rest advantage tonight as they have not played since Wednesday. As a result, our model is projecting a closely contested game. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Toronto Raptors

• Elite defensively this season

  • Rank 7th in Defensive Rating (107.6)

  • Holding opponents to shooting 44.2% overall and 32.5% from three

• Offense is mediocre, but has improved during road trip

  • 109.6 Offensive Rating this season. Has risen to 113.3 over last three games

  • Balanced shooting efficiency- 48% overall and 36% from three

• Top heavy scoring lineup

  • Have 4 guys averaging at least 17.0 points per game, but rank 26th in bench points per game

Boston Celtics

• Coming off win against Nets last night

  • Won 121-107, but shot poorly

    • 44% overall, 36% from three, 71% from free throw line

• Have been best all-around team this season

  • Rank 1st in Net Rating (+12.1)

  • Mediocre shooting efficiency- rank 15th or worse in field goal % and three-point %

• Have had relatively weak schedule

  • 5 of 8 games have come against opponents with .500 record or worse

  • Losses have against Timberwolves and 76ers- Each rank as top-4 defense

What’s the Play?

Back-to-backs are always a tough test, and this will be the first for Boston this season. As a result, we’ll take the Raptors on the spread here.

There’s no question that Boston has been the best all-around team this season, but the Celtics have their flaws. The team’s poor shooting efficiency is the most glaring, and in the losses to Minnesota and Philadelphia we saw the Celtics shoot 40% or worse and somehow only lost those games by a combined eight points.

Toronto has a significant rest advantage and is just as good defensively as Minnesota and Philadelphia, so we should expect the Raptors to give the Celtics some problems tonight. Our model projects Boston should be about -4.5 favorites, so we’ll gladly take Toronto at +8.

The Play: Raptors +8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 6-2 overall this season, 3-0 as the home team

• Cleveland Cavaliers- 3-5 overall this season, 1-0 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Orlando Magic- Under is 5-2-1 this season, 3-0 as the home team

• Miami Heat- Under is 5-3 this season with average total of 217.63

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Toronto Raptors- 5-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-2 ATS as an underdog

🔥 Doncic torches Clippers for 44 points. Luka Doncic's stellar performance, scoring 44 points with an impressive 17-of-21 shooting, led the Dallas Mavericks to a decisive 144-126 victory over the LA Clippers in an NBA In-Season Tournament game. This marked the Clippers' fifth loss of the season, and third consecutive loss since the inclusion of James Harden in their lineup. The Mavericks dominated with a commanding 47-point second period, including a remarkable 33-4 run in the first half, ultimately securing their seventh win and reaching their highest point total of the season.

🐺 Minnesota extends win streak to five-games. Karl-Anthony Towns' double-double propelled the Minnesota Timberwolves to a 117-110 victory over the San Antonio Spurs in their In-Season Tournament opener. The win extended Minnesota's winning streak to five games, while San Antonio suffered its fourth consecutive loss. Victor Wembanyama did everything he could with a 29-point performance for the Spurs, including nine rebounds, four assists, and four blocked shots, but the Timberwolves secured the win with notable contributions from Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert in addition to Towns.

A busy day of hockey is set to take place today, with 24 teams set to hit the ice. Our model’s predictions for all 12 matchups are below.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Detroit Red Wings

Model Predicts- Red Wings ML, OVER 6.5, Blue Jackets +1.5

The Columbus Blue Jackets will hit the road on Saturday to face the Detroit Red Wings for the second time this season.

Columbus’ struggles from last season have carried over into 2023, entering today with a 4-6-3 record and on a three-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Detroit has found some success, posting a 7-5-2 record, good enough for third place in the Atlantic division.

Our model has identified value on the Red Wings and the over in today’s matchup, and we agree with our model on both predictions. Let’s dive into what that is.

Detroit Red Wings

• Have been solid offensively this season

  • 3.10 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations ranks 5th in NHL, per Natural Stat Trick

  • Don’t generate much pressure on net, but top-10 power play has led to plenty of goals

• Defense has some work to do

  • GA/60 in 5-on-5 comes in at 2.44, but xGA/60 in same situations sits at 2.76, hinting at regression

  • Rank 16th in High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

• Expected goalie- Ville Husso

  • .912 Save % in 5-on-5

  • Ranks 56th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), per MoneyPuck

Columbus Blue Jackets

• One of worst defensive units in league

  • Rank 29th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 (3.06)

  • Surrender 7th-most high-danger scoring chances in same scenarios

• Offense should see improvement moving forward

  • Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in 5-on-5 sits 0.34 goals higher than real goals per 60 minutes

• Expected starter- Elvis Merzlikins

  • .885 Save % in 5-on-5 situations, ranks 48th in GSAx

What’s the Play?

Neither one of today’s starting goalies has been great in net, and both defenses in front of them have been unsteady. As a result, we’ll back the over.

Some metrics show Detroit’s offense is due for regression, but the group has many things working in its favor. The Wings are efficient shooters, ranking 7th in shooting percentage, and as previously mentioned have been great on the power play, which will likely continue today against a Columbus team that allows 33 shots on goal per game.

Merzlikins is a bad goalie, and Ville Husso has allowed at least three goals in five straight matchups. That gives both teams a great chance to find the back of the net often.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-130)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Red Wings- 7-5-2 overall this season, 4-2-2 as the home team

• Dallas Stars- 8-3-1 overall this season, 5-1-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Red Wings- Over is 9-5 this season with average total of 6.79

• Vancouver Canucks- Over is 7-4-2 this season with average total of 6.54

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 9-5 this season

😬 Zadorov requests trade for Calgary. Calgary Flames defenseman Nikita Zadorov has reportedly requested a trade following the Flames' shootout loss to the Maple Leafs in Toronto. The timing is notable as Zadorov's former GM in Calgary, Brad Treliving, now leads the Maple Leafs, one of the four teams inquiring about the 28-year-old defenseman. Agent Dan Milstein hinted at the trade request on social media, and despite Zadorov's impactful performance against the Leafs, including a rare goal, speculation about his departure grows amid trade talks involving the Leafs and Canucks.

🙌 Penguins to retire Jaromir Jagr’s number. The Pittsburgh Penguins have announced the retirement of Jaromir Jagr's No. 68 jersey in a ceremony scheduled for February 18, 2024. Despite a complex history with the team, including a trade to the Washington Capitals in 2001, Jagr's contributions during his 11 seasons in Pittsburgh, winning two Stanley Cup titles and numerous individual awards, are set to be recognized. Former teammates express excitement about the long-overdue honor, with the event expected to be a memorable night in Pittsburgh sports history.