In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NBA, and NHL, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 3-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 2-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 2-4

Over/Under Predictions: 4-1-1

Puck Line Predictions: 5-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Today’s Premium agenda includes…

• Two NBA player props and projected stat lines with analysis (see below example)

• Power Rankings pushed back to next Monday

Our Premium tools and analysis make our subscribers smarter sports bettors, and provide an edge that you won’t receive elsewhere. Today’s player props are already posted on our website! Click the button below to join Premium today! ⬇️ 

Another day of the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals takes place today, with two more games on the docket. Our model’s predictions for both matchups are below.

New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks

Model Predicts- Knicks ML, OVER 226.5, Knicks +5

The New York Knicks will hit the road in pursuit of another In-Season Tournament victory on Tuesday, stopping in Milwaukee, Wisconsin to take on the Bucks.

New York enters tonight’s battle with a 12-7 record and in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, a result of winning three straight games dating back to November 28th. Milwaukee has found a very similar level of success this season, posting a 14-6 record thanks to winning eight of its last ten games.

Sportsbooks make the Bucks the favorite tonight, but our model is forecasting the Knicks to pull off the upset on the road. Let’s take a look at why that is.

New York Knicks

• Enter today on three-game win streak

  • Wins over Charlotte, Detroit, and Toronto

  • +14.4 Net Rating in that time- highest in NBA

• Elite defense has been driver for success

  • Rank 3rd in Defensive Rating (109.0)

  • Opponents shooting 46.5% overall and 35.6% from three

• Offense struggles with efficiency, but is great from three

  • Shooting 44.5% overall, but 37.7% from three

  • Led by Jalen Brunson- shooting 47.7% from three this season

Milwaukee Bucks

• One of hottest teams in NBA

  • 8-2 in last ten games. +7.9 Net Rating

• Defense has cratered without Jrue Holiday

  • Defensive Rating is 115.1 this season. Up from 110.9 a season ago

  • Getting lit up from three- opponents shooting 40.2% from deep over last five games

• Injuries will affect struggling depth tonight

  • Rank 17th in bench points per game

  • Will be without Jae Crowder, Pat Connaughton

What’s the Play?

Backing the Knicks on the money line may be a bit of a bold play, but we agree with our model that New York can cover the spread tonight.

Milwaukee is nowhere near the defensive team it used to be, especially on the perimeter. Damian Lillard may be an upgrade from Jrue Holiday on offense, but he is a significant downgrade on the defensive end, and things get complicated even further now that Crowder and Connaughton are both sidelined.

As a result of the lack of a perimeter defender, Milwaukee has been caught in several close contests this season, winning by just three points per game this season.

New York can light it up from three, and defending the three-pointer has been Milwaukee’s most glaring flaw this season. That should allow the Knicks to keep this game close.

The Play: Knicks +5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Knicks- 12-7 overall this season, 3-0 in the last three games

• Phoenix Suns- 12-8 overall this season, 7-3 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Bucks- Over is 13-7 this season, 6-4 as a home favorite

• Los Angeles Lakers- Under is 12-9 this season, 7-3 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New York Knicks- 10-7-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 6-3-1 ATS as the home team

💪 Haliburton’s triple-double leads Pacers to win. Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton, secured his first-ever triple-double with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists on Monday. His outstanding performance led the Pacers to a surprising 122-112 victory over the favored Celtics, advancing them to the in-season tournament semifinals in Las Vegas. Despite Boston's strong defensive lineup, Haliburton dominated the second half, showcasing why the Pacers hold the league's best offense and leaving the Celtics regretful for squandering an opportunity to advance in the tournament.

👑 Pelicans take down Kings, advance to semifinals. The New Orleans Pelicans, with their youthful, driven roster and depth, showcased their potential in a convincing 127-117 win over the Sacramento Kings, advancing to the semifinals in Las Vegas. Despite Zion Williamson's limited scoring impact, players like Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy III stepped up, highlighting the Pelicans' depth and versatility in their recent victories. With an evolving roster showing promise, the Pelicans have won eight of their last 12 games, making a notable climb in the competitive Western Conference standings.

The NHL continues to ease us into the week, giving us eight more games today. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchups are below.

Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres

Model Predicts- Red Wings ML, OVER 6.5, Sabres +1.5

The Detroit Red Wings will end a short two-game road trip on Tuesday night, with the final stop coming in Buffalo, New York to take on the Sabres.

Detroit won the first leg of its road trip on Saturday night, defeating the Montreal Canadiens 5-4 in overtime. Detroit is now 5-1 across the its last six games and enters tonight with a 13-7-3 record, while Buffalo has posted a 10-13-2 record this season and is in the midst of a three-game losing streak.

The Red Wings and Sabres are trending in opposite directions at the moment, and our model believes the Red Wings will continue to trend upward and win tonight’s game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Detroit Red Wings

• Elite scoring offense despite some flaws

  • Rank 3rd in GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • Own 2nd highest shooting% and 8th best power play

  • However, rank 19th in shots on goal and 31st in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 (HDCF/60)

• Defense is trending up

  • Surrendering 1.83 goals per game over last six games

  • Now rank 10th in GA/60 in 5-on-5

• Expected goalie- Alex Lyon

  • .978 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 13th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +6.3

Buffalo Sabres

• Sluggish offense that is due for regression

  • Rank 26th in shots on goal per game

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 is 2.60, but xGF/60 is lower at 2.47

• Defense is far from impressive

  • Rank 24th in GA/60 in 5-on-5 (2.90)

  • Surrender 7th most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5

• Expected goalie- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

  • .909 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 38th in GSAx (-0.1)

What’s the Play?

Many advanced metrics don’t favor the Red Wings, but we agree with our model that Detroit will win this game.

One big advantage the Wings have tonight comes in net with Alex Lyon, who has been a brick wall this season. Lyon has allowed just five goals to get by on 118 shots attempts faced, a big reason why he ranks 1st in the NHL in Save % in 5-on-5. He should post similar numbers tonight against a poor Buffalo offense that rarely puts pressure on opposing goaltenders.

Detroit has its flaws, but its efficiency at even strength and on the power play go a long way. We’ll take the road favorite here.

The Play: Red Wings ML (-125)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Rangers- 18-4-1 overall this season, 10-2-1 as the away team

• Detroit Red Wings- 13-7-3 overall this season, 5-1 in last six games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Detroit Red Wings- Over is 13-9-1 this season with average total of 6.70

• Chicago Blackhawks- Under is 13-9-1 this season with average total of 6.13

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Colorado Avalanche- Puck line is 13-11 this season

💰 NHL salary cap expected to increase. The NHL projects an increase in the salary cap to around $87.675 million for the 2024-25 season, as per the recent announcement during the Board of Governors meeting. The increase comes as the league incurred about $1.5 billion in escrow debt during the 2019-20 season due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which is expected to be cleared by next year, enabling a more significant cap increase. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman expressed confidence in the league's robust state, citing strong ownership of franchises, growing revenues, and an overall positive outlook on the game's health as reasons for the rise as well.

💪 Vasilevskiy posts first shut out of season. Andrei Vasilevskiy secured his first shutout of the season with 25 saves as the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Dallas Stars 4-0. The shutout was a welcome one for Tampa Bay, as it lead to breaking a four-game losing streak. Nikita Kucherov contributed a goal and an assist alongside Anthony Cirelli's two goals and Luke Glendening's score for the Lightning, helping Tampa Bay rebound from an 8-1 loss to Dallas over the weekend.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who was the first overall pick of the 1992 NBA Draft?

Question #2- What university did Bo Nix attend prior to transferring to Oregon?

Question #3- Name the most recent MLB expansion team, which joined the league in 1998.

Anyone know what has happened on December 5th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 5th…

1987- Notre Dame wide receiver Tim Brown wins the 53rd Heisman Trophy award. Brown won the award over Syracuse quarterback Don McPherson, becoming the first wide receiver to win the award. He would go on to be the sixth overall pick in the 1988 NFL Draft, and earned nine Pro Bowl selections during his career.

2006- MLB pitcher Greg Maddux signs a one-year deal with the San Diego Padres. The new contract was worth a total of $10 million, and came following a season in which Maddux recorded a 15-14 record and 4.20 ERA. He would play just one full season with San Diego, and would retire following the 2008 season.

2017- Russia is banned from the next Winter Olympics by the IOC disciplinary commission. The ban came after a year-long investigation into Russian athletics, which concluded that several athletes were doping in order to win more medals. As a result, 43 Russian competitors were sanctioned, and 13 total medals were stripped.

1. Shaquille O’Neal

2. Auburn University

3. Tampa Bay Rays