In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Yesterday was a day of mixed results for our models. The NBA model was by far the best and produced a 3-star winner, but the NHL and MLB models fell behind. Tons of underdogs won yesterday in the MLB, which went against what the model predicted for most matchups. You can see how the models did as a whole below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-0

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 0-2

3-star Predictions: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 3-9

Over/Under Predictions: 5-5-1

Spread Predictions: 6-5-1

3-star Predictions: 0-0-1

The NBA is back with another two-game slate on Saturday. The New York Knicks will head to South Beach to take on the Heat in a series tied 1-1, and the Golden State Warriors will travel to Los Angeles to take on LeBron James and the Lakers. That series is tied 1-1 as well.

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

Model Predicts- Knicks ML, OVER 209, Knicks +4

The New York Knicks will go from the Big Apple to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

New York struggled to get much going in Game 1, falling to Miami by a score of 108-101. However, we saw the Knicks bounce back in Game 2, ending the game on a 24-14 run to win by six points.

Jimmy Butler was absent for Game 2 which gave New York the edge, but it appears that he will be back in the lineup today. Will his presence and home court advantage give Miami a 2-1 series lead, or can the Knicks spoil Miami’s homecoming like the model predicts?

New York Knicks

The New York Knicks ended the regular season as the Eastern Conferences’ No.5 seed. They would take on Cleveland in Round 1, winning rather decisively in five games.

The key for New York in that series was picking up multiple wins on the road. The Knicks would steal Game 1 with a 101-97 victory, then win again in Game 5 to close out the series.

The defense was the catalyst in those road matchups, resulting in a 107.6 Defensive Rating in three games. At the time of writing that is the best road Defensive Rating of the 16 playoff teams, showing how elite this team can be on that end of the floor.

The offense was not great at all, as evidenced by their 107.3 Offensive Rating in Round 1. However, Cleveland was the No.1 ranked defense in the NBA during the regular season, so the low offensive output makes sense.

We’ve already seen New York have much more success against a good, but weaker, Miami defense. The Knicks owns a 114.0 Offensive Rating in this series, nearly 7.0 points higher when compared to Round 1.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat’s amazing postseason run will look to continue today when the series returns to their home court. The momentum was certainly stopped after going cold in the fourth quarter of Game 2 in this series, but the Heat still have a ton of things going their way.

The biggest improvements have come on the offensive end of the floor. Miami was the lowest scoring team in the regular season, averaging an abysmal 109.5 point per game. However, in seven postseason games that average has risen to 119.0, the second highest among the 16 playoff teams and less than a point behind the Celtics in first.

The biggest difference make is Miami’s three-point shooting, a part of its game that was essentially nonexistent in the regular season (34.4%). The playoffs have been a completely different story though as the Heat are shooting 41.3% from behind the arc, nearly two percent higher than the next closest team.

Miami likely only lost Game 2 because Jimmy Butler was sidelined. Butler is expected to be back in the line up today, which is obviously a huge boost as he is scoring 29% of Miami’s points in the postseason.

What’s the Play?

The return to Miami has shifted this line roughly nine points in favor of Miami. Its makes sense when you consider have close to unstoppable Jimmy Butler has been in the playoffs, but we agree with our model that New York can cover the spread here.

Let’s start by saying that we believe that our model’s prediction of Knicks money line might be ambitious. If everyone was healthy then the model would give the Heat a slight chance to win (roughly 51%), but the injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have tipped the scales towards New York. The Knicks will be without Jericho Sims, but our models suggest he is rather worthless on the spread.

New York has the health advantage and on the road has held its opponent to an average of 99.7 points per game in the postseason. Butler will likely still be dealing with the ankle injury in some form and if he is not 100% and failing to score the ball then New York can continue its dominance on the road.

We wouldn’t be shocked to see a low scoring, defensive battle this afternoon. That will help the Knicks keep things close here.

3-star play: Knicks +4 (-110)

Money Line Trends

• New York Knicks- 5-2 overall in postseason, 2-1 as the away team

• Miami Heat- 5-2 overall in postseason, 2-0 as the home team

• Golden State Warriors- 5-4 overall in postseason, 2-2 as the away team

• Los Angeles Lakers- 5-3 overall in postseason, 3-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends

• New York Knicks- Over is 1-6 in postseason, 0-3 as the away team with average total of 192.7

• Miami Heat- Over is 6-1 in postseason, 2-0 as home team with average total of 226.5

• Golden State Warriors- Over is 5-4 in postseason, 2-2 as the away team with average total of 232.0

• Los Angeles Lakers- Over is 4-4 in postseason, 0-3 as home team with average total of 216.7.

Spread Trends

• New York Knicks- 4-3 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 2-1 as the away team

• Miami Heat- 6-1 ATS in postseason, 2-0 as home team

• Golden State Warriors- 4-5 ATS in postseason, 2-2 as the away team

• Los Angeles Lakers- 5-3 ATS in postseason, 3-0 as the home team

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

• New York Knicks

  • Jericho Sims (OUT)

• Miami Heat

  • Jimmy Butler (Game Time Decision), Victor Oladipo (OUT), Caleb Martin (Game Time Decision), Tyler Herro (OUT), Haywood Highsmith (Game Time Decision)

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

• Golden State Warriors

  • Andre Iguodala (OUT), Patrick Baldwin (Game Time Decison), Ryan Rollins (OUT)

• Los Angeles Lakers

  • LeBron James (Game Time Decision), Anthony Davis (Game Time Decision), Mo Bamba (Game Time Decision)

☘️Boston wins Game 2 in Philly. The Boston Celtics handled the 76ers rather easily in Game 2, winning 114-102 on Friday night to take a 2-1 series lead. Jason Tatum led the way with 27 points, but the real story was Boston having six guys score at least 13 points. The depth advantage played a massive role the last two games for the Celtics, especially since James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have both struggled to shoot the ball after tremendous performances in Game 1. Game 2ill be played on Sunday.

⭐️ Devin Booker leads Suns to victory. The Phoenix Suns got their first win of the series on Friday night in a 121-114 win over the Denver Nuggets. Devin Booker was unstoppable in the matchup, scoring 47 points on 80% shooting. Kevin Durant contributed with 39 points, but no other player on the Suns roster scored above 7 points which has been a concerning trend. The win also helped mask an unbelievable stat line from Nikola Jokic, which consisted of 30 points, 17 rebounds, and 17 assists.

🇦🇺 Ben Simmons want to play for Australia in World Cup. The FIBA World Cup is right around the corner, and Brooklyn Nets guard Ben Simmons has reportedly said that he wants to play for his home country. Simmons has been riddled with injuries and missed time because of a contract hold out, knocking the former All-Star and All NBA player down what was once an incredibly high ceiling. Simmons played 42 games this season and average just 6.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, all of which are well below his career averages.

For the second day in a row there isn’t much going on in the nHL. Today’s matchup is between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights, two of the top teams in the Western Conference. Our model likes Vegas to win today, just like it predicted them to in Game 1 of the series.

There are no 3-star plays in the nHL today.

Money Line Trends

• Edmonton Oilers- 4-3 overall in postseason, 2-2 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- 5-1 overall in postseason, 3-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends

• Edmonton Oilers- Under is 2-5 in postseason, 1-3 as the away team with average total of 8.25

• Vegas Golden Knights- Under is 1-5 in postseason, 1-3 as the home team with average total of 7.00

Puck Line Trends

• Edmonton Oilers- Puck line is 2-5 in postseason, 0-4 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 5-1 in postseason, 3-1 as the home team

Edmonton Oilers @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Edmonton Oilers

  • Mattias Janmark (Day-to-Day), Derek Ryan (Day-to-Day)

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • No relevant players

🌧 Hurricanes blowout Devils in Game 2. The New Jersey Devils are experiencing Deja Vu in the second round, losing to the Hurricanes 5-1 in Game 1 and 6-1 in Game 2. As some might remember New Jersey went down 0-2 against the New York Ranger sin Round 1, losing 5-1 in the first two games. Of course the Devils would go on to come back and win the series, but the chances of that happening look to be slim against Carolina.

🤕 Matthew Knies likely out for remainder of Round 2. Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Matthew Knies, who suffered a concussion in Game 2, will likely be out for the rest of Toronto’s series against the Florida Panthers. The 20-year-old was slammed into boards and then the ice by Florida’s Sam Bennett, leading to a small scuffle afterwards. Knies had one goal and three assists in seven playoff appearances after only playing in three regular season matchups.

Today the MLB has scheduled 15 games, with the fist one beginning at 2:15 PM Eastern Time. However, due to some gaps in the early season data, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Model Predicts- Pirates ML, Under 9, Pirates +1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates will square off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday afternoon.

The Blue Jays got the best of Pittsburgh in Game 1, shutting out the Pirates in a 4-0 victory. The win was a massive one for Toronto as it had lost five straight games before last night.

The loss was the fifth in a row for Pittsburgh, its longest losing streak of the season. However, this Pirates team still owns a 20-13 record, the best in the NL Central.

Both of these teams have played ugly baseball recently, but it appears that Toronto may have found its footing again. Will the Blue Jays use that to their advantage and get their second win in as many days, or will the Pirates end the losing streak?

Toronto Blue Jays

José Berríos is set to get the start today for Toronto, which puts them in an interesting spot.

Berríos enters today’s matchup with a 2-2 record, 5.29 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP. In some starts he has been great, just look at his 7.0 inning, zero earned run performance against the White Sox on April 25th. However, he has also had plenty of disastrous starts, like his most recent appearance against the Red Sox (5.1 innings, 11 hits, five earned runs).

The two eye-catching statistics for Berríos are his xBA and xSLG, where he ranks in the bottom 20% of the MLB in both categories, per Baseball Savant. His .278 xBA is lowest of his career and is .033 ticks higher than the MLB average (.245), and his .489 xSLG is also the lowest of his career.

Those metrics have led to a 5.15 xERA for Berríos. That is essentially the same as his is actual ERA mentioned above, showing that he isn’t getting unlucky and the metrics are a result of simply being bad on the mound.

Berríos does one thing well though, and that is limiting his walks. He has only walked seven batters all year, putting him in the 84th percentile of Walk rate Berríos also generates his fair share of swings and misses, as evidenced by ranking in the top 20% of Whiff rate.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are perhaps the most surprising team in the MLB this season, coming out of the gates red hot. However, this five game slump has brought Pittsburgh back down to Earth, showing that this team does have some flaws.

The offense has been non-existent for the Pirates during its losing streak. Per TeamRankings, Pittsburgh ranks tenth in the MLB in runs per game with 4.85, but over the course of the last five games that number has plummeted to 1.2.

That is a major concern entering today. It’s tough to win baseball games when only one runner can get across the plate. However, the pitching staff is what has gotten Pittsburgh to this point and that group has remained efficient despite the recent losses.

Pittsburgh enters today ranked ninth in Team ERA (3.61). Last season its ERA was 4.66, so it’s clear this team has made some dramatic improvements. The bullpen deserves the most credit, posting the fifth best ERA (3.11) in the majors and only allowing four earned runs in the last five games.

What’s the Play?

Betting on the Pirates to win this game outright is a tough sell. However, we agree with our model that the Pittsburgh run line is a 3-star play with current odds of -135.

Johan Oviedo (2-2 record, 4.78 ERA) is set to get the start today for the Pirates. He has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts, but prior to that was one of the more dominant pitchers in the young season. His 4.78 ERA is rather high, but his xERA comes into at 3.30 which is a sign that fewer runs are on the horizon.

Ovideo does a great job at limiting hard contact. Per Baseball Savant his average exit velocity allowed is just 86.7 mph, leading to a Hard Hit rate of 33.7%. He also owns a Barrel rate of 2.9% while league average is 6.8%.

Oviedo ranks in the top 13% of the MLB in fastball velocity (96.0 mph), showing he has an elite arm. We expect Toronto, a team that ranks in the middle of the pack against right-handed pitchers, to struggle a bit today. We like Pittsburgh at +1.5.

3-star play: Pirates +1.5 (-135)

Money Line Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates- 20-13 overall this season, 9-5 as the home team

• Toronto Blue Jays- 19-14 overall this season, 10-11 as the away team

Over/Under Trends

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 21-10-2 this season, 12-2-1 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 20-11-1 this season, 9-4 as the home team

Run Line Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 20-13 overall this season, 5-4 as home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report on MLB.com

🤕 Another pitcher needs Tommy John surgery. Houston Astors pitcher Luis Garcia will undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his season. Garcia had elbow discomfort prior to his start against San Francisco on Monday, and only managed to throw eight pitches before being taken out of the game. In six starts this Garcia posted 4.00 ERA in 27.0 innings.

👏 Liam Hendriks makes his return to the mound. Chicago White Sox pitcher Liam Hendriks pitched a scoreless inning in a rehab start on Friday, his first appearance back on the mound since beating cancer. Hendriks is expected to make four or five rehab starts before coming back to the majors.

Our referral program is currently being migrated over from our old provider. You will eventually see your referral count here along with your unique code.