In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, NHL, and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-2 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 14-2

Over/Under Predictions: 8-8

Puck Line Predictions: 7-9

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Run Line Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

After easing us into the NBA season yesterday, the league has given us 12 games to look at today. Our model’s predictions for those matchups can be found below.

Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

Model Predicts- Mavericks ML, OVER 229.5, Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks will begin the 2023-24 season on the road, staying in the state of Texas to take on the San Antonio Spurs.

Dallas enters this season coming off a rather disappointing showing in 2022-23, ending the year with a 38-44 record and missing the postseason. San Antonio was even worse, ending last season with a 22-60 record and in 15th in the Western Conference.

Rookie sensation Victor Wembanyama has stolen the headlines for this matchup, but our model is still predicting the Mavericks to cover the spread in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Dallas Mavericks

• New additions- Grant Williams, Dereck Lively, Seth Curry, Dante Exum

• Coming off season in which defense was a struggle

  • Ranked 26th in Defensive Rating (116.1), per NBA.com

  • Held opponents to shooting 48.5% from the floor overall- 7th highest in NBA

  • Allowed 51.1 points per game in paint

• Offense improved after Kyrie Irving trade, but defense got worse

  • 117.3 Offensive Rating with Irving, 119.0 Defensive Rating

    • Lost length on perimeter by trading Dorian Finney-Smith

• Injuries- Dwight Powell, Luka Doncic, and Jaden Harty all Game Time Decisions. Doncic practiced and no longer feels soreness in injured calf

San Antonio Spurs

• New additions- Victor Wembanyama, Cedi Osman, Devonte’ Graham (OUT)

• Worst team in NBA last season by a long shot

  • Ranked 30th in Net Rating (-9.9). 1.8 points worse than next closest team

  • Allowed 56.6 points per game in paint

  • Opponents shot 50.7% from the floor overall, 39.1% from three

• Have height advantage in this matchup

  • Average height of roster is 6 feet, 7.5 inches

What’s the Play?

Dallas and San Antonio didn’t beat many teams last season due to several defensive liabilities on each roster. The addition of Grant Williams for Dallas and Wembanyama for San Antonio may plug some of those holes, but we don’t expect to see those affects right away and agree with our model that this will be a high-scoring contest.

Wembanyama’s presence will improve San Antonio’s nonexistent interior defense, but it likely won’t help the Spurs’ vulnerability on the perimeter. That is bad news against this Mavericks team, one that shot 37.1% from three last season and now has Seth Curry and Grant Williams on the roster, who each shot 39.5% or better from behind the arc last season.

San Antonio will likely pour on points as well, as Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are proven scorers alongside Wembanyama. We’ll take the over here.

The Play: Over 229.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Celtics- 68-34 overall last season (including playoffs), 31-19 as the away team

• Toronto Raptors- 41-41 overall last season, 27-14 as the home team

• Chicago Bulls- 40-42 overall last season, 22-19 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Charlotte Hornets- Under was 48-34 last season, highest win % in NBA

• San Antonio Spurs- Over was 47-33-2 last season, 22-15 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Orlando Magic- 45-35-2 against the spread (ATS) last season, 22-18-1 ATS as the home team

• Utah Jazz- 47-33-2 ATS last season, highest win % in NBA

💪 Jokic posts triple-double in Nuggets win over Lakers. The Denver Nuggets opened their season with a sense of déjà vu, with Nikola Jokic orchestrating the offense effectively. Denver marked the occasion with a championship ring ceremony, followed by a commanding start against the Lakers, securing a 119-107 victory. Jokic notched a triple-double with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists, while LeBron James led the Lakers with 21 points as both teams knocked off the rust.

☀️ Booker shines in Suns season opener. Devin Booker made a powerful statement on opening night, outshining stars and future Hall of Famers in the Phoenix Suns 108-104 victory against the Golden State Warriors. Booker's standout performance included 32 points, eight assists, and six rebounds on 13-of-21 shooting, and he took charge during crucial moments. Kevin Durant, amidst his return to Chase Center, struggled with his shooting but still managed a double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds, relying heavily on Booker to secure the Suns' 1-0 start.

After 16 games yesterday, the NHL has given us just one game today in what should be the Frozen Frenzy hangover. Our model’s prediction for tonight’s matchup can be found below.

Washington Capitals @ New Jersey Devils

Model Predicts- Devils ML, OVER 6.5, Capitals +1.5

The Washington Capitals will hit the road for a short one-game road trip on Wednesday to take on the New Jersey Devils.

Washington got crushed in last night’s Frozen Frenzy, suffering a 4-1 loss at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Meanwhile, New Jersey is riding some momentum following a 5-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens.

The Capitals have looked like the worst team in hockey so far, but our model still projects Washington to score some goals in a relatively high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Washington Capitals

• Have struggled on offense through five games

  • Rank 32nd in GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations (1.03)

  • Generating 27.2 shots on goal per game

  • Have been held to one goal or less in three of five games

• Defense has been decent despite what record says

  • Rank 12th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick

  • Vulnerable to pressure on goaltender- 11.59 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

• Starting goalie- Hunter Shepard

  • In for injured Charlie Lindgren. Will be his first NHL game

  • Owns .885 Save % in AHL this season

New Jersey Devils

• Strange numbers in early portion of season

  • Rank 30th in GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations (1.33), but rank 6th in goals per game (4.00)

  • Power Play efficiency is strong point- have converted on 44% of PP opportunities

  • Positive regression on horizon- xGF/60 in 5-on-5 sits at 3.05 (1st in NHL)

• Rank in bottom half of NHL in xGA/60 (2.65) and HDCA/60 (10.68) in 5-on-5

• Starting goalie- Akira Schmid

  • +1.0 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

  • .915 Save % in 5-on-5

What’s the Play?

We do not have much at our disposal today, but we feel our model’s best prediction in this spot is the over.

New Jersey hasn’t been impressive on either end of the ice in 5-on-5 situations, but the metrics show that the offense is on the cusp of a breakthrough in those scenarios. Combine that with Washington having a rookie tending twine and the Devils’ unreal power play, and we have a recipe for another offensive outburst from New Jersey.

Washington’s offense is the wild card here, but New Jersey is allowing 31.8 shots on goal per game, so scoring opportunities will be there against a likely tired defense.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-125)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Jersey Devils- 3-1-1 overall this season, 1-1-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New Jersey Devils- Over is 5-0-0 this season with average total of 7.40 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Capitals- Puck line is 1-4 this season

🏔 Avalanche set NHL record in win over Islanders. The Colorado Avalanche continued their winning streak on Tuesday, setting an NHL record with their 15th consecutive road victory with a 7-4 win over the New York Islanders. Mikko Rantanen was instrumental for the Avs, scoring the game-winning goal and contributing three assists. The Avalanche, now 6-0-0 in the season, showcased their resilience as they secured the win with two empty-net goals, further extending their remarkable winning streak, which spans the last 11 road games from the previous season.

🏒 NHL changes stance on tape rules. The NHL has changed its stance on the use of colored stick tape to support social causes during games and practices. Players now have the option to use colored stick tape to represent social causes, reversing the earlier ban on such usage, which included Pride tape used to support the LGBTQIA+ community. This decision followed discussions with the NHL Players' Association and the NHL Player Inclusion Coalition and was positively received by fans and advocacy organizations.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who holds the NBA record for the most games played with 1,611?

Question #2- Joe Flacco was the second quarterback selected in the 2008 NFL Draft. What school did Flacco play at the year prior to being drafted?

Question #3- Who holds the MLB record for grand slams, hitting 25 in his career?

Anyone know what has happened on October 25th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 25th…

1978- San Diego Padres pitcher Gaylord Perry wins the NL Cy Young Award. The honor came following a stellar 21-6 season on the mound for Perry, one that saw him post a 2.73 ERA. It was the second time in Perry’s career that he won the Cy Young, making him the first pitcher in MLB history to win the award in both the American and National League.

1987- The Minnesota Twins defeat the St. Louis Caridnals 4 games to 3 in the World Series. The victory was the first World Series title since the Twins moved to Minneapolis, with the second title coming shortly after in 1991. Frank Viola, who pitched in Games 1, 4, and 7, was named World Series MVP.

2009- The New York Yankees defeat the Anaheim Angels 4 games to 2 in the ALCS. The Yankees took firm control of the series from the first pitch, jumping out to a 2-0 series lead before extending the lead to 3-1. The ALCS victory sent New York to the World Series, where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4 games to 2.

1. Robert Parish

2. University of Delaware

3. Alex Rodriguez