In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 3-4

Over/Under Predictions: 2-4-1

Run Line Predictions: 2-5

3-star Predictions: 0-0

🏆 Denver Nuggets defeat Miami Heat in Game 5, win first title in franchise history. The Denver Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat 94-89 in Game 5 of the NBA Finals last night, giving Denver its first NBA title since being established in 1967. Miami looked terrific in the first half, entering halftime up seven, however, the Nuggets would come storming back, outscoring the Heat 50-38 across the final 24 minutes of play. Denver shot just 18% from three and 56% from the charity stripe and got into foul trouble early, yet still pulled off the impressive comeback. Nikola Jokic, who finished Game 5 with 28 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assists, was crowned Finals MVP, an award that will look great next to his two regular season MVP awards.

❌ Fred Vanvleet declines player option, will test free agency. Toronto Raptors point guard Fred Vanvleet has reportedly declined his $22.8 million player option for next season, per Adrian Wojnarowski. The decision will make Vanvleet one of the more sought after players in free agency, but the All-Star has said he has not ruled out a return to Toronto. Vanvleet is coming off a season in which he averaged 19.3 points, 7.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game, but the Raptors failed to make the playoffs after losing to Chicago in the Play-In Tournament.

🚀 Houston to consider signing Kyrie Irving. The Houston Rockets finished the 2022-23 season with just 22 wins, but are prepared to spend big money in free agency in order to turn the franchise around. The Rockets have been tied to just about every free agent so far, and now Houston will reportedly pursue Kyrie Irving if their pursuit for James Harden falls short, per Marc Stein. Irving was traded to the Dallas Mavericks at last season’s trade deadline, but the Mavs won just eight of the 20 games that Irving played. Meanwhile, Harden came to the 76ers at the 2022 trade deadline, but is torn between signing with the 76ers or going back to Houston, where he played for just over nine seasons.

There is one NHL game scheduled to take place on Tuesday, with that matchup being Game of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Florida Panthers and Las Vegas Golden Knights. The Stanley Cup will be in the building tonight since Vegas is up 3-1, and our model believes the Golden Knights will end the night as Stanley Cup champions for the first time in franchise history.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends💰

• Florida Panthers- 13-7 overall in postseason, 8-3 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- 15-6 overall in postseason, 8-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Florida Panthers- Over is 8-12 overall in postseason, 5-6 as the away team with average total of 6.09

• Vegas Golden Knights- Over is 12-9 overall in postseason, 9-2 as the home team with average total of 6.82

Puck Line Trends➕➖

• Florida Panthers- Puck line is 9-111 overall in postseason, 8-3 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 13-8 overall in postseason, 6-5 as the home team

Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Florida Panthers

  • Matthew Tkachuk (Day-to-Day), Eetu Luostarinen (OUT)

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • Laurent Brossoit (OUT)

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place this on Tuesday. However, due to gaps in the season data and lines not being available at the time of publishing, our model has predictions for 12 of today’s matchups.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Pirates ML, OVER 8.5, Pirates +1.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs will begin a three-game series on Tuesday in the Windy City.

Pittsburgh enters today with a 34-30 record, good enough for first place in the NL Central. However, the Pirates are just one game ahead of Milwaukee in the division, meaning the Pirates are going to have to find the win column a few more times in order to maintain that position.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are just 28-37 and in fourth in the NL Central division, 6.5 games back of Pittsburgh.

This will be the first time that we see these division rivals face off in 2023, and our model likes the Pirates to walk away from Game 1 victorious. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will the Cubs kick off the series with a win?

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates began the 2023 season red hot, going 20-9 through their first 29 matchups. However, Pittsburgh has cooled significantly since then, winning just 14 of the next 35 games.

The struggles at the plate have been a big reason for the sudden cool down. Per Fangraphs, Pittsburgh ranked fourth in the MLB in wRC+ through the end of April at 115, but since May 1st we have seen the Pirates’ wRC+ fall to 88. That ranks 24th in the majors in that time.

The pitching staff has also contributed to the downfall. Through the team’s first 29 games Pittsburgh ranked sixth in the majors in Team ERA (3.53) and 15th in xFIP (4.24). However, we have seen those number rise to 4.53 and 4.50, respectively, since May 1st, further proving that Pittsburgh’s production decline on the mound and at the plate had an equal role in its demise.

Luis Ortiz (1-2 record, 4.23 ERA) will be in charge of providing more stability to the mound for Pittsburgh this evening. However, that has been a tall task for the 24-year-old so far in 2023.

Per Baseball Savant Ortiz enters today’s matchup with a 7.41 xERA, more than three runs higher than his actual ERA. The variance in the two stats can be attributed to many things, but mostly Ortiz’s Barrel rate (13.4%), Hard Hit rate (49.5%) and Strikeout rate (12.5%). He ranks in the bottom 5% of the majors in all three statistics.

Ortiz often pitches to contact. It hasn’t posed too many issues so far, but the data indicates that his surface-level numbers don’t tell the full story of how vulnerable he is on the mound.

Chicago Cubs

Jameson Taillon (1-4 record, 7.02 ERA) will make the start for Chicago, a guy that has been tough to rely upon this season.

The 31-year-old, who was drafted by the Pirates back in 2010, has declined in many areas on the mound in 2023. The biggest example of that is Taillon’s walk rate, which was 4.4% in 2022 but has risen to 7.9% in 2023, per Baseball Savant. His walk rate this season still puts him in the top 55% of the MLB, but the increase in walks is certainly a concern.

However, the biggest concern has been how often opposing hitters are sizing up Taillon. His 11.9% Barrel rate is well above the 6.8% MLB average, and it places him in the bottom 11% of the majors. That has also contributed to Taillon’s .283 xBA (expected batting average), up form .260 a season ago.

Taillon’s most commonly thrown pitches are a 4-seam fastball, cutter, and sinked. All three pitches have an xBA above .300. Taillon isn’t fooling anyone while on the mound, and it is a big reason why he has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last six starts.

What’s the Play?

The picthing matchup today makes the over in this matchup a very friendly prediction. Our model gives the over a 56.71% chance of hitting in this matchup, and that is a risk we are willing to take.

Ortiz’s xERA shows that more runs are on the horizon for the second-year player. Taillon’s xERA comes in lower than his actual ERA at 5.57, but neither number is encouraging for his chances of shutting down an offense.

We expect a high-scoring game in this one.

3-star play: Over 8.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends💰

• Houston Astros- 37-29 overall this season, 18-14 as the home team

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 41-25 overall this season, 21-14 as the home team

• Seattle Mariners- 32-33 overall this season, 18-15 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 39-24-2 this season, second highest win percentage in MLB

• San Diego Padres- Under is 42-21-2 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Run line is 37-29 overall this season, 17-13 as the home team

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report on MLB.com.

🗳 Ronald Acuña and Shohei Ohtani leading the way in All-Star voting. Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. and Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani lead the National and American League, respectively, in All-Star voting after Round 1. Acuña is the only player to have received over 1 million votes, while Ohtani is the only other player to be above 900,000. Phase one of All-Star voting will continue through June 22nd, while Phase two will be from June 26-29. The All-Star game will take place on July 11th at T-Mobile Park, home of the Seattle Mariners.

💪 Trevor Story could return from injury next month. Boston Red Sox infielder Trevor Story underwent elbow surgery in January, keeping him sidelined for all of 2023 so far. However, the shortstop told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that he could return to the lineup as a designated hitter in July, adding that he may be able to play shortstop in August. Injuries played a massive role i nStory’s first season with the Sox in 2022, limiting the two-time All-Star to 16 home runs and 66 RBIs in 92 games.

🛠 Angels will reportedly tweak Ohtani’s workload. Shohei Ohtani has been dominant on the mound and at the plate for the Angels ever since joining the MLB in 2018, but it appears that the intense workload is starting to catch up to the 2021 AL MVP. Ohtani stated that he his pitching far more than he did last season, saying that he is often feeling fatigued because of it, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Ohtani has thrown 76 innings in the 2023 season, the 26th most in the majors, posting a 3.32 ERA in that time while also hitting 18 home runs.

♽ J.T. Realmuto hits for the cycle on Monday. Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto hit for the cycle last night in Philadelphia’s 9-8 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Realmuto became the ninth player in Phillies history to accomplish the feat, and only the 17th catcher in MLB history.

⁉️ Could Saquon Barkley sit out this year? Saquon Barkley has had his fair share of injuries over the course of career, forcing him to sit on the sidelines. It’s a possibility that the former Penn State standout misses time in the 2022-23 season too, but it would not be due to health problems. Barkley and New York have reached a standstill in contract negotiations, and the two sides have until July 17th to come to new terms or Barkley will have to sign the $10.1 million franchise tag. It’s clear that Barkley would like some more security, but that has been tough for many running backs to negotiate as the position is becoming less valuable in the eyes of many franchises. Barkley tallied 1,650 yards and earned his second Pro Bowl nod last season, so he is one of the league’s best backs when healthy.

👀 Rick Pitino lands a big recruit for St. John’s. The St. John’s Red Storm have struggled to remain relevant in the world of college basketball, but it appears that is starting to change. St. John’s hired former Louisville and Iona head coach Rick Pitino back in March, and now former North Carolina signee Simeon Wilcher has committed to the Red Storm, per Jeff Goodman. Wilcher currently ranks 28th in the class of 2023, giving St. John’s its second top-100 recruit in the class.

🔟 Seattle Storm retire Sue Bird’s number. Sue Bird will forever be known as a WNBA legend, which resulted in the Seattle Storm retiring her No.10 on Sunday. Bird’s number is only the second in the franchise’s history to be put in the rafters, joining Lauren Jackson’s No.15. Bird played for the Storm he entire WNBA career, retiring in 2022 as a 13-time All-Star and four-time WNBA Champion.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The University of Georgia has been a powerhouse program in the world of college football for quite some time now, winning the National Championship each of the last two seasons. The Bulldogs had loads of talent on both championship rosters, but in 2022 Georgia set the record for most NFL Draft selections in a single year. How many Georgia players were drafted in 2022?

Question #2- Roy Williams came on to the college basketball coaching scene in 1978, joining the University of North Carolina as an assistant. He would later become the head coach of the Tar Heels in 2003, but had one other head coaching stint in the NCAA from 1988-2003. What school was Williams the head coach at before North Carolina?

Question #3- Three players in MLB history have stolen 900 or more bases. Billy Hamilton sits in third with 914, and Lou Brock is in second with 938. Ricky Henderson sits as the stolen bases king though, several hundred ahead of Brock. How many bases did Henderson steal in his career?

Anyone know what has happened on June 13th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 13th…

1948- New York Yankees legend Babe Ruth presents his “Farewell to Baseball” speech in Yankee Stadium. The speech was conducted on the day that the Yankees retired Ruth’s number, and it would be the last time he would be in Yankee Stadium. Ruth was suffering from cancer at the time the speech was made, and passed away from the disease a few months later in August of 1948. He was 53 years old.

1953- Jim Peters runs a marathon in 2:18:40, setting a new World Record. The Englishman broke the marathon World Record four times in the 1950s, also becoming the first person to run a marathon in under 2 hours and 20 minutes. Peters is most known for collapsing at the end of the marathon at the 1954 Commonwealth Games, a race where he opened up a 17-minute gap on the rest of the field and crawled to the finish line.

1997- The Chicago Bulls defeat the Utah Jazz 90-86 in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, giving the Bulls their fifth NBA title in the last seven seasons. Utah entered the series as the No.1 seed in the West with a 64-18 regular season record, but Chicago was slightly better at 69-13 and the No.1 seed in the East. Michael Jordan was named Finals MVP for the fifth time in his career, with his most memorable performance being the “Flu Game” in Game 5 of the series.

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1. 15

2. Kansas

3. 1,406