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Expect a Bounce Back From Indiana
One Best Bet Today
In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…
Yesterday’s Model Recap
NBA Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News
Trivia Questions
On This Day in History…
Additional Model Predictions ⬇️
NHL Model Predictions- Click Here
MLB Model Predictions- Click Here
Yesterday’s Model Recap
There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.
MLB Model Results
Money Line Predictions: 6-5
Over/Under Predictions: 2-9
Run Line Predictions: 4-7
Featured Matchup: 0-1
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NBA🏀
Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (Getty Images)
Today’s Model Predictions
Three NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all three matchups can be found below.
Featured Matchup🎰
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Model Predicts- Pacers ML, OVER 220.5, Pacers +1
The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will hit the hardwood for Game 2 of this best-of-seven series on Tuesday, the final game in Milwaukee before the series moves to Indianapolis.
Game 1 was a nightmare for the Pacers, losing the contest 109-94 in what turned out to be one of Indiana’s worst games of the season. To make matters worse, the blowout occurred while Giannis Antetokounmpo was sidelined, showing that a short-handed Bucks squad can still make some noise without its best player.
Indiana was the favorite in Game 1, and now the tables have turned in favor of Milwaukee. However, our model still projects the Pacers to be the team that comes out on top in Game 2. Let’s take a look at why that is.
Indiana Pacers
Put together disastrous performance in Game 1
Shot 40% overall, 21% from three, and 67% from the free throw line
Pascal Siakam had 36 points, but only two other players reached double-digit points
Good news- clear adjustments were made at halftime, and they worked
Allowed Bucks to score 69 points on 51% shooting in first half, but just 40 points on 42.1% shooting in second half
Posted +27.9 Net Rating in second half
Injuries- Benedict Mathurin is OUT
Milwaukee Bucks
Led by Damian Lillard in Game 1
35 points on 11/24 shooting, 6/11 from three
Higher production was expected- averaged 29.9 points per game during reg. season with Giannis sidelined (StatMuse)
Second half struggles like we saw in Game 1 aren’t unusual
Posted -2.1 Net Rating in second half in 26 games after the All-Star break (NBA.com)
Shot 46.8% overall and 33.9% from three in second half of games after All-Star Break, compared to 48.4% and 39.9% in first half
Injuries- Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful
What’s the Play?
Indiana didn’t do much to give Pacers bettors confidence in Game 1, but we agree with our model that Indiana can bounce back in Game 2 and cover the spread as a short underdog.
The Pacers owned the Bucks during the regular season, posting a 4-1 record in the season series. In those five games we saw Indiana do whatever it wanted offensively, leading to a 122.0 Offensive Rating and 128.8 points per game, proving that this team has the tools to expose what has been a weak Bucks defense for a majority of the season.
A team is never as good or as bad as it is in Game 1, especially after not playing for nearly seven days. As a result, we expect the Pacers to get their feet back under them tonight, and get back to their dominant ways against this Bucks team.
The Play: Pacers +1 (-110)
Relevant Betting Trends
Money Line Trends 💰
Minnesota Timberwolves- 57-26 overall this season, 31-11 as the home team
Indiana Pacers- 47-35 in regular season, 4-1 against the Bucks
Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️
Minnesota Timberwolves- Over is 42-40-1 this season, 30-26 following a win
Indiana Pacers- Over is 24-14-2 this season when coming off a loss. Average total of 254.0 in regular season games vs Bucks
Spread Trends ➕➖
Indiana Pacers- 44-37-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 22-15-2 ATS as an underdog
News Around the League
🚨 Jamal Murray hits buzzer beater to complete comeback victory. The Denver Nuggets staged a remarkable comeback on Monday night, erasing a 20-point deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Lakers 101-99 in Game 2. Jamal Murray sealed the victory with a buzzer-beating fadeaway jumper, putting the Nuggets up 2-0 in the series. Nikola Jokic recorded a triple-double with 27 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists, while Anthony Davis and LeBron James combined for 58 points in a losing effort for the Lakers.
🐝 Hornets interviewing JJ Redick for head coach position. The Charlotte Hornets are considering JJ Redick for their vacant head coaching position, as reported by sources to The Athletic's Shams Charania. Redick, who played 15 seasons in the NBA after a successful college career at Duke, previously interviewed for the Toronto Raptors' coaching job last offseason but lost to Darko Rajakovic. Redick, known for his sharpshooting, retired and started a successful podcast, "The Old Man and the Three," and now works as an ESPN analyst.
Trivia Section🧠
American golfer Tiger Woods (Getty Images)
Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.
See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.
Question #1- Tiger Woods and what other former PGA Tour golfer are tied for the most wins in Tour in history, each collecting 82 during their career?
Question #2- MLB pitcher Max Scherzer began his MLB career with what current NL West team?
Question #3- Who won the 2015 NBA Finals MVP award, a series in which the Golden State Warriors took down the Cleveland Cavaliers?
On This Day in History🗓
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (Getty Images)
Anyone know what has happened on April 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.
On April 23rd…
1989- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar plays in his final regular season game as a Los Angeles Laker. Kareem scored 10 points in the game, marking the end of a journey with the Lakers that began in 1975. He was a large reason for much of L.A.’s success during this time, propelling the Lakers to five NBA titles.
2015- Former San Antonio Spurs star Kawhi Leonard wins the Defensive Player of the Year award. It was the first time that Leonard received the honor, doing so at age 24 after leading the NBA in steals per game (2.3). He would go on to win the award again in 2016.
2020- LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is selected with the No.1 overall pick in the NFL Draft by the Cincinnati Bengals. Burrow began his collegiate career at Ohio State University before transferring to LSU, where he led the Tigers to a national title in his final season. Burrow is still a member of the Bengals today, and played a key piece in Cincinnati’s Super Bowl Run during the 2021 season.
Trivia Answers
Sam Sneed
Arizona Diamondbacks
Andre Iguodala