In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

Sportsbook Offers & Bonuses- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-9

Over/Under Predictions: 9-6

Run Line Predictions: 5-10

Featured Matchup: 0-1

16 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 15 of those matchups can be found below.

Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants

Model Predicts- Twins ML, OVER 8, Giants +1.5

The Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants will continue their three-game series on Saturday, with the first pitch of Game 2 scheduled to take place at 7:15 PM Eastern.

San Francisco got the best of Minnesota IN Game 1, taking down the Twins by a score of 7-1. That win helped end a two-game losing skid for the Giants, while the loss was only the second in the last six games for the Twins.

Despite last night’s defeat, our model gives the Twins close to a 63% chance to win tonight’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Minnesota Twins

• Lost Game 1 of series to Giants

  • Lost 7-1. Were down 4-0 before scoring first run of game in 6th inning

  • Still 4-2 in last six games and 6-4 in July

• Have been best offensive team since July 1st

  • Rank 1st wRC+ (148). Next closest team owns a 131 wRC+

  • Also rank 2nd in BABIP (.341), and 1st in OPS (.869)

• Starting pitcher- Simeon Woods-Richardson

  • Due for slight regression- 3.48 ERA vs 3.92 xERA

  • Solid at limiting walks and hard contact- ranks in top 40% in Walk rate (7.2%) and Hard Hit rate (36.2%)

San Francisco Giants

• Struggling to find rhythm heading into All-Star break

  • Own 2-4 record in last six games. Have only won back-to-back games once this month (July 4 & 5)

• Offense has been mediocre over last six games

  • Rank 15th in wRC+ (106), 17th in BABIP (.282), and 18th in OPS (.716)

  • 28 runs scored in that span ranks 18th in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Hayden Birdsong

  • Due for regression- 4.39 ERA vs 4.91 xERA

  • Struggling with hard contact and vulnerable to barrel- Owns 45.0% Hard Hit rate, 12.5% Barrel rate

What’s the Play?

San Francisco managed to take Game 1 of this series in dominant fashion, but we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back the Twins on the money line.

Minnesota has been by far the best hitting team in the MLB in the month of July, and that success at the plate is likely to return today against Hayden Birdsong. The 22-year-old doesn’t have many innings under his belt, but that small sample size has shown that opposing hitters are sizing him up well and putting themselves in position to score runs. Additionally, the 0.52-run variance between his real ERA and xERA indicates more runs are on the horizon for his opponents.

Woods-Richardson is due for some regression as well, but he is facing a much weaker hitting attack and is the more established name on the mound this season. Our model projects the Twins as a -169 favorite, so we’ll gladly grab them at -115.

The Play: Twins ML (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 56-29 overall this season, 28-20 as the away team

• Baltimore Orioles- 57-37 overall this season, 29-21 as the home team

• Minnesota Twins- 53-41 overall this season, 26-23 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Under is 52-38-4 this season, 24-20-3 as the home team

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 53-39-3 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (57.6%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 53-42 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (55.8%)

🥊 Benches clear in Yankees-Orioles game. The Yankees and Orioles engaged in a benches-clearing altercation after Baltimore outfielder Heston Kjerstad was hit in the head by a pitch from New York closer Clay Holmes in the ninth inning, leading to Kjerstad being placed in concussion protocol and Orioles manager Brandon Hyde's ejection. Hyde expressed frustration with the Yankees' dugout's reaction during the incident, while Yankees manager Aaron Boone emphasized that Holmes didn't intend to hit Kjerstad and hoped tensions wouldn't carry over to the next game. Holmes attributed the hit to poor weather conditions, and despite the conflict, the Yankees won 4-1, moving closer to Baltimore in the AL East standings.

⭐️ Pirates rookie Paul Skenes named starter in All-Star Game. Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes will start for the National League in the All-Star game after an impressive performance against the Brewers, where he struck out 11 and allowed no hits over seven innings. With only 11 MLB starts, Skenes has become the youngest pitcher to start the All-Star game at 22, and the fifth rookie ever to do so. Drafted first overall in 2023, Skenes boasts a 1.90 ERA and 2.58 FIP, and he is set to face top American League hitters in the Midsummer Classic on July 16.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What current Chicago Cubs player was drafted No.1 overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2015 MLB Draft?

Question #2- Three wide receivers recorded more than 1,500 receiving yards during the 2018 season. Two of those players were Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins, but who was the third?

Question #3- Kyle Lowry was drafted by what current Western Conference team in the 2006 NBA Draft?

Anyone know what has happened on July 13th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 13th…

1968- Gary Player wins the British Open at Carnoustie Golf Links in Angus, Scotland. Player shot 1-over par for the tournament, taking down runner-ups Bob Charles and Jack Nicklaus by two strokes. It was the second time Player won the Open, and it was fifth major victory overall.

1982- Former MLB catcher Yadier Molina is born in Bayamon, Puerto Rico. Molina began is MLB career in 2004 with the St. Louis Cardinals, and would play hi entire major league career with the team. Molina would retire in 2022, and collected 10 All-Star appearances, nine Gold Gloves, and two World Series Championships during his career.

2019- The 91st MLB All-Star Game is held at Coors Field, the home of the Colorado Rockies. The American League took down the National League, winning the game by a score of 5-2. The victory marked the eighth consecutive year on which the American League won the All-Star Game.

1. Dansby Swanson

2. Mike Evans

3. Memphis Grizzlies