Expect Few Goals in Philly

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-3

Over/Under Predictions: 3-5

Spread Predictions: 6-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Eight NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all eight matchups can be found below.

Detroit Red Wings @ Philadelphia Flyers

Model Predicts- Flyers ML, UNDER 6.5, Red Wings +1.5

The Detroit Red Wings will wrap up their four-game road trip on Tuesday, with the fourth and final stop coming in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to battle the Philadelphia Flyers.

Detroit’s road trip has not gone to plan thus far, as the Red wings have lost two of three games. That stretch brings the Red Wings’ record to 21-21-2 for the season, while the Flyers own a 21-20-6 record after winning two-consecutive games last Thursday and Saturday.

Our model doesn’t see much value in backing either of these teams on the money line, but it does spot some value on the total here. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Red Wings

• Enter tonight on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Lightning, one loss to Stars

  • Have been out-scored 9-2 in that stretch

• Offense has struggled to begin the new year

  • Rank 18th in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 situations (xGF/60) since January 1st

  • Putting little pressure on net- 9.82 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 ranks in bottom half of NHL

• Expected goalie- Cam Talbot

  • Owns .931 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 34th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +2.3

Philadelphia Flyers

• Enter tonight on two-game win streak

  • One win over Islanders, one win over Devils

  • Own +4 goal differential in that span. Both wins came on road

• Defense has been among NHL’s best in January

  • Rank 4th in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5 situations with 2.06 since January 1st

  • Have held opponents to three goals or less in seven of nine games

• Expected goalie- Samuel Ersson

  • Owns .889 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 83rd in GSAx (-8.4)

What’s the Play?

The total for tonight’s game sits at 6.5, but our model projects roughly six goals to be scored here. As a result, we’ll back the under.

Detroit has played very poor defensively over the last two games, but the underlying metrics show the Red Wings have been unlucky in that span. Per Natural Stat Trick, Detroit owns a 3.59 GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations since January 18th, but the team’s xGA/60 in the same situations sits much lower at 2.61. That means less goals are on the horizon or Detroit’s opponents, and Philadelphia is the likely start of that trend as the Flyers rank in the bottom-ten in shots on goal per game and power play efficency.

However, it is unlikely we see Detroit get out of its offensive slump against this Flyers squad, even with a weak goaltender like Ersson in net. Philadelphia has been great at limiting pressure on net, which will make it difficult for a Red Wings offense due for regression to score.

The Play: Under 6.5 (-135)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Ottawa Senators- 24-18-4 overall this season, 12-11-2 as the away team, and 2-0 in last two games

• Philadelphia Flyers- 21-20-6 overall this season, 2-0-0 in last two games

• Washington Capitals- 31-10-5 overall this season, 15-6-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Nashville Predators- Under is 27-17-1 this season with average total of 5.64

• Buffalo Sabres- Over is 26-13-5 this season with average total of 6.54

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Montreal Canadiens- Puck line is 28-18 this season

• Anaheim Ducks- Puck line is 30-16 this season

😬 McDavid, Myers both suspended three games for cross-checks. The NHL's Department of Player Safety announced three-game suspensions for Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid and Vancouver Canucks defenseman Tyler Myers following cross-check incidents in Saturday’s game. McDavid’s high stick against Conor Garland and Myers’ cross-check to Evan Bouchard’s head were deemed intentional and dangerous, warranting supplemental discipline despite Myers claiming it was unintentional. McDavid, with only one prior suspension, and Myers, with two previous bans, will miss key games, including a rematch between their teams on Thursday.

💪 Blues take down Golden Knights in overtime. The St. Louis Blues edged out the Vegas Golden Knights 5-4 in a shootout after surrendering two late goals in regulation, with Jake Neighbours and Brayden Schenn scoring in the tiebreaker. Vegas forced overtime with goals from Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev in the final minutes, but St. Louis gained crucial points in the Western Conference playoff race, tying with Vancouver and sitting just one point behind Calgary for a wild-card spot. Despite the loss, Vegas moved one point ahead of Edmonton in the Pacific Division but has now dropped six of their last seven games.

Today’s Top Sportsbook/DFS Offers🎰

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To see all sportsbooks and offers available in your area, click HERE

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Kyle Lowry all played college basketball at what university?

Question #2- Who was the first overall pick in the 2005 MLB Draft?

Question #3- What two teams faced off in the 2023 AFC Championship?

Anyone know what has happened on January 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On January 21st…

2004- The Minnesota Wild set the NHL record for the two fastest goals. The record was set when Jim Dowd and Richard Park found the back of the net just three seconds apart in the final 15 seconds of a game against the Chicago Blackhawks. Minnesota would win the game 4-2.

2010- Kobe Bryant becomes the youngest player in NBA history to reach 25,000 points. Bryant accomplished the feat at 31 years and 151 days old, beating Wilt Chamberlain by 35 days. He would end his career with 33,643 career points, the fourth-most in NBA history.

2019- Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson makes his first 10 three-point attempts in a game against the Los Angeles Lakers. The performance set a new NBA record, and was a huge piece in Golden State’s 130-111 win. Thompson would finish the game with 44 points.

1. Villanova University

2. Justin Upton

3. Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals