In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 5-7-1

Run Line Predictions: 7-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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17 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 15 of those matchups can be found below.

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 9, Reds -1.5

The Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds will continue their four-game series on Wednesday night, with the first pitch for Game 3 scheduled to be thrown at 7:10 PM Eastern.

Cincinnati is in firm control of the series through two games, taking home the win in each of the first two contests. Those wins brought the Reds’ record to 44-48 for the season, while the losses sank the Rockies to 32-60.

Neither one of these has been particularly good this season, but our model expects the Reds to win rather easily again this evening in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Colorado Rockies

• Have yet to beat Reds in series

  • Outscored 6-0 in Game 1, 12-6 in Game 2

  • Now 0-3 in last three games with -21 run differential

• Pitching staff has been atrocious during three-game losing streak

  • Starters- 6.46 ERA (23rd), 5.71 FIP (25th), 2.35 HR/9 (25th)

  • Relievers- 14.90 ERA (29th), 8.86 FIP (29th), 3.72 HR/9 (29th)

• Starting pitcher- Kyle Freeland

  • Due for positive regression, but still expected to be bad- 6.62 ERA vs 5.25 xERA

  • Pitching to contact- Ranks in bottom 3% of MLB in Whiff rate and Strikeout rate

Cincinnati Reds

• 2-0 in series with Rockies

  • Won Game 1 and 2 by six runs

  • Wins snapped three-game losing streak. Now 5-3 in July

• Have dominated Rockies in season series

  • 5-0 in five games against Rockies this season

  • Own +30 run differential in that five-game stretch. Averaging 9.40 runs per game

• Starting pitcher- Frankie Montas

  • Due for regression- 4.19 ERA vs 4.82 xERA

  • Struggles in many areas- Ranks in bottom 28% of MLB in xBA, Hard Hit rate, Strikeout rate, and Walk rate

What’s the Play?

Our model is making the Reds a sizable favorite here, with the implied odds sitting at -201 compared to the -180 money line you can find on most sportsbooks. However, we think the best bet to take in this matchup is the over.

Kyle Freeland and Frankie Montas are two pitchers that can easily be lit up, as evidenced by each having an xERA in the neighborhood of 5.00. A large reason for that is due to neither guy being a strikeout pitcher, with each owning a strikeout rate below 18.6%, as well as surrendering hard contact in bunches, with both guys ranking in the bottom 38% of the MLB in Hard Hit rate.

Additionally, the season series between the Rockies and Reds has been every over bettors dream, with the average total coming in at 12.8 runs per game. Our model is projecting about 10.0 runs to be scored tonight, but that still means there is plenty of value on the over at its current total of 9.

The Play: Over 9 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• St. Louis Cardinals- 48-42 overall this season, 24-18 as the home team, and 7-3 in last 10 games

• Philadelphia Phillies- 59-32 overall this season, 34-14 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Yankees- Over is 49-40-4 this season, 26-20-3 as the away team

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 53-32-5 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 52-40 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

🤕 Tyler Glasnow placed on IL with back tightness. Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow is going on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness, which flared up while playing catch on Sunday, according to manager Dave Roberts. The Dodgers are hopeful it's a minor issue, and Glasnow could return shortly after the All-Star break. Despite this setback, Glasnow has had an impressive season with a 3.47 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and an NL-best 143 strikeouts over 109 innings, earning his first All-Star selection before being replaced by Hunter Greene due to the injury.

⭐️ Greene, Westburg named as injury replacements for All-Star Game. Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene and Baltimore Orioles infielder Jordan Westburg were named All-Stars on Tuesday, with Greene replacing Tyler Glasnow and Westburg replacing Rafael Devers due to injuries. Both players are making their All-Star debuts, with Greene having an impressive season featuring a 3.45 ERA and 116 strikeouts, and Westburg hitting .281 with 14 homers and 49 RBIs. The 2024 MLB All-Star Game will be held on July 16 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The 2019 Home Run Derby was a special one, seeing one player set the record for most home runs in a single derby. Who was that player?

Question #2- Brett Favre is best known for his time with the Green Bay Packers, but the Hall of Fame quarterback actually began his NFL career with another franchise. What team did Favre play for in his rookie year?

Question #3- The Miami Heat have had several all-time greats wear the franchise’s uniform, but one player stands out amongst the rest when it comes to scoring the basketball. Who is the Heat’s all-time leading scorer?

Anyone know what has happened on July 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 10th…

1936- Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Chuck Klein becomes the fourth player in MLB history to hit four home runs in a single game. Klein’s performance came in a 9-6 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the four homers pushed his season total to 14. Klein, who is a one-time NL MVP, played for the Phillies three different times in his career, with his first stint lasting from 1928-1933, second lasting from 1936-1939, and third lasting from 1940-1944.

2016- Andy Murray defeats Milos Raonic to win his second Wimbledon and third Grand Slam title. Murray was born in Glagsow, Scotland in 1987, essentially playing tennis his whole life before turning pro in 2005 at the age of 18. Murray’s presence was immediately felt in the tennis world, resulting in the star being ranked in the top 10 for all but one month from July 2008 through October 2017.

2018- Real Madrid forward Cristiano Ronaldo joins Italian champions Juventus in a deal that made the star one of the four most expensive players of all time. The move was also the most expensive transfer for an Italian club and for any player over 30 years old. Ronaldo played for the club until 2021, becoming the first player to finish as the top scorer in the English, Spanish, and Italian leagues.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. Dwyane Wade