Expect High-Scoring Trend to Continue in Montreal

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAF Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

2024 CFP Bracket- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 0-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Ten NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all ten matchups can be found below.

Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens

Model Predicts- Sabres ML, OVER 6, Canadiens +1.5

The Buffalo Sabres will wrap up a three-game road trip on Tuesday, with the third and final stop coming in Montreal, Quebec, Canada to battle the Montreal Canadiens.

Buffalo’s road trip has been far from productive, as the Sabres have lost each of the first two games to the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs. Those losses now have the Sabres in the midst of a long ten-game losing streak, and the Canadiens enter tonight in a similar spot after losing two-consecutive contests.

Our model projects the Sabres to end their winning drought tonight, but we are more focused on the total in this matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Buffalo Sabres

• Enter tonight on ten-game losing streak

  • Seven losses in regulation, three in overtime. Own -16 goal differential in that span

  • Last win was 4-2 victory over Sharks on November 23rd

• Defense has been atrocious during losing streak

  • Opponents posting 3.06 goals per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 situations in last 10 games (26th in NHL)

  • Surrendering tons of pressure on net- 12.72 High-Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 is fourth-most in NHL since November 24th

• Expected goalie- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

  • Owns .920 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 24th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +2.8

Montreal Canadiens

• Enter tonight on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Penguins, one loss to Jets

  • Own -9 goal differential in that span. Being out-scored 13-4 by opponents

• Just like Buffalo, defense has been team’s achilles heel this season

  • Rank 31st in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5 situations with 3.00 this season

  • Rank 25th in shots on goal per game with 29.9

• Expected goalie- Sam Montembeault

  • Owns .909 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 21st in GSAx (+3.9)

What’s the Play?

Buffalo and Montreal are experiencing immense struggles at the moment, but we agree with our model that each team can produce enough offense to hit the over here.

The Sabres and Canadiens are no stranger to allowing pressure on net, each ranking in the bottom-ten in opponent shots on goal per game, but those struggles have become far worse as of late. Per Natural Stat trick, Buffalo’s HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 situations since December 1st comes in at 15.26, and Montreal is right behind at 14.64, ranking the Sabres and Canadiens 32nd and 31st in the NHL, respectively. Opponents are getting far too many scoring chances in close, and it is leading to goals in bunches.

Additionally, both squads are due to see a boost in production offensively, as each teams owns an xGF/60 in 5-on-5 situations that is at least 0.20 goals higher than their GF/60 in the same situations.

In summary, neither defense has managed to stop pressure inside the blue line, and the underlying metrics show more goals are on the horizon for the Sabres’ and Canadiens’ offenses. Our model projects 6.5 goals to be scored here, so we’ll take the over at its current total of six.

The Play: Over 6 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Los Angeles Kings- 18-9-3 overall this season, 7-1-0 in last eight games

• New Jersey Devils- 20-10-3 overall this season, 11-4-0 as the away team

• Seattle Kraken- 15-15-2 overall this season, 8-7-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Buffalo Sabres- Over is 15-11-5 this season with average total of 6.32

• Montreal Canadiens- Over is 15-13-2 this season with average total of 6.5

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• St. Louis Blues- Puck line is 19-13 this season

• San Jose Sharks- Puck line is 22-11 this season

🚨 Keifer Sherwoods’ hat trick leads Canucks to home victory. Kiefer Sherwood recorded his first NHL hat trick with an even-strength goal, a short-handed goal, and an empty-netter, leading the Vancouver Canucks to a 3-1 victory over the Colorado Avalanche. Thatcher Demko made 30 saves as Vancouver bounced back from a tough loss, while Colorado’s Valeri Nichushkin scored late and Mikko Rantanen extended his point streak to six games. Coach Rick Tocchet praised the Canucks' physical response, which included 30 hits and strong penalty-killing, while Sherwood’s short-handed goal in the second period stood out as the game’s turning point.

🏆 Panthers defeat Oilers in Stanley Cup Finals rematch. Carter Verhaeghe scored the decisive third-period goal as the Florida Panthers edged the Edmonton Oilers 6-5 in a Stanley Cup Final rematch, despite Aleksander Barkov missing his second straight game. Florida got contributions from Niko Mikkola, Sam Reinhart, Jesper Boqvist, Matthew Tkachuk, and Gustav Forsling, while Sergei Bobrovsky made 25 saves; Zach Hyman scored twice for Edmonton, and Leon Draisaitl continued his streak with a goal and an assist. A critical moment came when Verhaeghe fired the game-winner over Stuart Skinner’s shoulder, while Hyman reached his 200th goal and returned in the third period after a scary puck-to-the-face injury.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which former Boston Celtics player was the cover athlete on NBA 2K18?

Question #2- Which University of Georgia wide receiver was selected fourth overall in the 2011 NFL Draft by the Cincinnati Bengals?

Question #3- St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado played for what NL West team from 2013-2020?

Anyone know what has happened on December 17th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 17th…

1978- Former MLB star Chase Utley is born in Pasadena, California. Utley stormed onto the baseball scene during his time at Long Beach Polytechnic High School, which led to him earning a spot on UCLA’s baseball roster for his collegiate career. He then went on to be selected in the first round of the 2000 MLB Draft by the Philadelphia Phillies, and also played for the Los Angeles Dodgers during his career.

1991- The Pittsburgh Penguins defeat the San Jose Sharks 10-2. The Penguins came out the gates hot, scoring two goals in the first period, but Pittsburgh was even better in the second period, where the team scored eight of its ten goals. The scoring outburst set a new NHL record for goals in a single period, and seven unique Penguins players contributed to the scoring.

2022- The Minnesota Vikings defeat the Indianapolis Colts 39-36 in overtime. Minnesota picked up the victory in dramatic fashion, out-scoring Indianapolis 39-6 in the second half and overtime after going down 33-0 in the first half. The comeback was the largest in NFL history, and enabled Minnesota to clinch the NFC North title.

1. Kyrie Irving

2. A.J. Green

3. Colorado Rockies