In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 2-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-3

Run Line Predictions: 3-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Four MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all four matchups can be found below.

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Model Predicts- Mets ML, OVER 7.5, Brewers +1.5

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers will continue their best-of-three series on Wednesday, with the first pitch of Game 2 scheduled to take place at 7:38 PM Eastern.

New York got the best of Milwaukee in Game 1 on Tuesday, beating the Brewers by a score of 8-4 to take a 1-0 lead in the series. That win was the third in the last four games for the Mets, while the loss was the second-straight defeat for the Brewers.

Our model makes Game 2 of this series a coin flip, meaning there isn’t much value in taking either team on the money line. However, it has spotted some value on the total in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

New York Mets

• Used offensive power to win Game 1

  • Won game 8-4. Scored three runs in second inning and five in fifth inning

  • Recorded seven hits and four walks in game

• Will face right-handed pitcher today (Frankie Montas), which favors offense

  • Ranked 11th in wRC+ (105), 12th in BABIP (.288), and 12th in OPS (.721) against right-handed pitchers during regular season

  • Six of eight runs scored in Game 1 came with righty on the mound

• Starting pitcher- Sean Manaea

  • Due for slight regression- 3.47 ERA vs 3.75 xERA

  • Struggles keeping ball on ground- 37.8% Ground Ball rate ranks in bottom 23% of MLB

Milwaukee Brewers

• Offense was hot early in Game 1, but cooled off late in game

  • Recorded eight hits and four runs

  • All four runs came in fourth inning or earlier. Did not record a hit or walk after the sixth inning

• Have had lots of success vs Mets in 2024 season

  • Posted 5-1 record vs Mets in regular season

  • Averaged 4.67 runs per game. Owned +11 run differential in season series

• Starting pitcher- Frankie Montas

  • Pitching to expectations- 4.84 ERA vs 4.71 xERA

What’s the Play?

High-scoring games don’t come around often in the postseason, but we agree with our model that today’s Mets/Brewers matchup will likely see plenty of runs put on the board.

Frankie Montas isn’t a pitcher that should provide the Brewers with much confidence with their season on the line. Sure, his xERA is lower than his real ERA, hinting that he has experienced some bad luck on the mound this season, but for the most part it is a result of just being a poor pitcher. The right-hander owns a Walk rate (10.1%) that places him in the bottom 22% of the majors, and his Hard Hit rate (43.1%) and Barrel rate (9.2%) also rank among the bottom 22%.

His poor command puts opposing hitters on base, and barrel contact makes him vulnerable to allowing baseballs to go over the wall, as evidenced by surrendering six homers in his last three starts.

Additionally, we’ve already seen the Brewers offense jump all over Sean Manaea, as the lefty surrendered seven hits and six runs in just 3.2 innings back on September 27th. The Milwaukee offense handled the Mets in the regular season, and facing Manaea puts the team in a position to do so again.

Today’s total sits at 7.5, and our model projects more than eight runs to be scored. As a result, we’ll back the over.

The Play: Over 7.5 (-120)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 0-1 overall in postseason, 44-37 as home team in regular season, 7-4 in last 11 games

• New York Mets- 1-0 overall in postseason, 3-1 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Mets- Over was 89-73 in regular season, 43-38 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over was 92-70 in regular season, 47-34 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line was 88-74 in regular season, 33-20 as a road underdog

💪 Michael King dominates, leads Padres to shutout win over Braves. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a towering two-run homer on his first playoff swing in four years, sparking the San Diego Padres to a 4-0 win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series. Michael King dominated in his postseason debut, striking out 12 batters and allowing no walks, helping the Padres secure the shutout. Rookie pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver struggled for Atlanta, while the Braves’ offense couldn't get going after an exhausting schedule leading up to the game.

🐅 Tigers survive late scare from Houston to win Game 1. The Detroit Tigers beat the Houston Astros 3-1 in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series, with ace Tarik Skubal dominating by pitching six shutout innings and striking out six in his playoff debut. Detroit scored all three of its runs in the second inning off Astros starter Framber Valdez, while Houston threatened in the ninth but couldn't capitalize. This marks the Tigers' first postseason win since 2013, with Game 2 set for Wednesday in Houston at 2:30 PM.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who holds the NFL record for most receptions in a single game with 21?

Question #2- Andy Reid has been in the coaching world since 1982, getting his start at what university as a graduate assistant?

Question #3- What former Olympic gold medalist and now reality TV star was selected by the Kansas City Kings in the 7th round of the 1977 NBA Draft?

Anyone know what has happened on October 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 2nd…

1983- Washington Redskins wide receiver Art Monk catches three passes for 59 yards in a 37-35 win over the Los Angeles Raiders. Monk’s stat line in the performance may have slipped through the cracks, but it marked the first of 183 consecutive games in which he caught at least one pass. His streak would end up an NFL record, that is until Jerry Rice took over the throne with 274.

2001- Chicago Cubs slugger Sammy Sosa becomes the first player in MLB history to record 60 home runs in three different seasons. Sosa launched the milestone homer off Cincinnati Reds pitcher Lance Davis, but the Cubs still came up short in a 5-4 defeat. He would finish his career with 609 home runs, the ninth most in MLB history.

2016- Vin Scully calls his final game for the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the San Francisco Giants, a bitter rival of the Dodgers, spoiled Scully’s sendoff, winning the game 7-1 in nine innings. Scully had been an announcer for the team for 67 years prior to his retirement, starting his career when the Dodgers were in Brooklyn and following them to the West Coast.

1. Brandon Marshall

2. Brigham Young University

3. Bruce Jenner