In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 10-5

Run Line Predictions: 9-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, UNDER 8.5, Padres +1.5

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies will wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday, squaring off in Citizens Bank Park at 1:05 PM Eastern.

Philadelphia has handled San Diego well thus far, taking home the win in each of the first two games in the series. Those victories were the 48th and 49th wins of the season for the Phillies, giving them a 49-24 record this season, while the losses pushed the Padres record to a mere 37-40.

Philly and San Diego are trending in opposite directions at the moment, and our model believes that will continue to be the case today as it projects the Phillies to finish off the sweep in a low-scoring contest this afternoon. Let’s dive into why that is.

San Diego Padres

• In danger of being swept by Phillies for second time this season

  • 0-2 in current series- Outscored 9-2 in Game 1 and 4-3 in Game 2

  • Swept 3-0 from April 26-28th as well

• Trending downward- enter this matchup on five-game losing streak

  • Offense is non-existent- rank 29th in wRC+ (49) and BABIP (.227) over last five games

  • Averaging 2.6 runs per game in last five games. Own -18 run differential in that span

• Starting pitcher- Matt Waldron

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.65 ERA vs 3.41 xERA

  • Great at limiting hard contact- ranks in top 13% of MLB in Hard Hit Rate (32.6%)

Philadelphia Phillies

• Back on track after long road trip

  • Went 3-5 on most recent road trip- 1-1 vs Mets in London, 1-2 vs Red Sox, and 1-2 vs Orioles

  • Now 2-0 vs Padres since returning home

• Have cruised against the Padres this season

  • April 26-28: 3-0 record, 173 wRC+, pitchers had 3.33 ERA

  • Last 2 games- 2-0 record, 219 wRC+, pitchers have 2.00 ERA

• Starting pitcher- Ranger Suarez

  • Due for regression, but none that will cause damage- 1.77 ERA vs 2.81 xERA

  • Tremendous ground ball pitcher- ranks in top 10% of MLB in Ground Ball rate (53.0%)

What’s the Play?

Waldron and Suarez have both been great on the mound this season, and as a result we agree with our model to back the under in today’s matchup.

Waldron may have a 4-6 record, but as we discussed earlier, it is largely due to the fact that the Padres rarely produce offense when he is on the mound. He has surrendered just four earned runs across his last 26.1 innings and zero home runs in his last 37.0 innings, yet San Diego has been held to four runs or less on three separate occasions in that span. Waldron is not the reason they are losing games, and his dominance on the mound can keep this hot Phillies offense in check.

However, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Waldron pick up another loss here, as the Padres offense is ice cold and will have to face a stud in Ranger Suarez, who allowed just three hits and one run against this Padres team back on April 27th.

We should see a pitchers duel this afternoon, which is why our model is projecting 7.66 runs to be scored compared to the total of 8.5. Back the under here.

The Play: Under 8.5 (+100)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 49-24 overall this season, 29-10 as the home team

• Seattle Mariners- 44-31 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games, and 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Diego Padres- Under is 20-17 as the away team this season

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 36-32-5 this season, 18-17-3 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 38-30-5 this season, 25-14-3 after a win

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 44-28 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

🤕 Astros place Verlander on IL due to neck discomfort. The Houston Astros have placed pitcher Justin Verlander on the IL due to neck discomfort, with no specific timeline for his return. This is Verlander's second IL stint this season, following a previous shoulder injury, and he has posted a 3.95 ERA over 57 innings. In response, the Astros have recalled Nick Hernandez, as multiple other pitchers and outfielder Kyle Tucker are also on the IL.

🙏 Willie Mays passes away at age 93. Willie Mays, the legendary "Say Hey Kid," passed away at 93, as announced by his family and the San Francisco Giants. Renowned for his exceptional talent and infectious enthusiasm, Mays was celebrated for his memorable plays, including the iconic over-the-shoulder catch in the 1954 World Series. His illustrious career spanned 22 MLB seasons, where he earned numerous accolades and left an indelible mark on baseball, inspiring generations of players and fans alike.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Jason and Travis Kelce are just one of the many sibling duos to grace the NFL. However, before their NFL stardom the brothers played college football at the same university too, something that not many other duos can say. Where did the Kelce brothers play their college football?

Question #2- Klay Thompson is just one of the many NBA players who have come close to mastering the three-point shot, even setting the NBA record for the most three’s made in one quarter back in 2015. How many shots did Klay make from behind the arc in that quarter?

Question #3- Landry Shamet entered the NBA in 2018, drafted 26th overall by the Philadelphia 76ers out of Wichita State. Despite his three-point shooting ability, Shamet has often been a fill-in player in many trades.. How many times has Shamet been traded during his six NBA seasons?

Anyone know what has happened on June 19th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 19th…

1943- The Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers merge, forming what many fans called the “Steagles”. The merger came about because of a player shortage throughout the NFL, mainly due to World War II, and half of the team’s games were played in Pittsburgh while the other half were played in Philadelphia. The Steagles went on to finish the season in third place in the NFL’s Eastern division with a 5-4-1 record, but the team would only stay together for one season before a new influx of players came to the NFL in 1944.

2011- Rory McIlroy wins the U.S. Open, holding off Jason Day and setting multiple records in the process. McIlroy was in complete control down the stretch, beating the rest of the field by eight strokes on his way to a U.S. Open record 16-under par performance. At one point McIlroy was 12-under par in the second round, the lowest score at any point in U.S. Open history at the time. The victory was McIlroy’s first win at a major in his career, and he would only have to wait until 2012 to win his second (PGA Championship).

2016- The Cleveland Cavaliers win their first title in franchise history following a 93-89 victory over the Golden State Warriors. Cleveland entered the series as the No.1 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 57-25 record, while Golden State was the No.1 seed in the West, winning an NBA record 73 games in the regular season. The Warriors jumped out to an early 3-1 series lead, but Cleveland stormed back and became the first team in NBA Finals history to overcome a 3-1 deficit.

1. University of Cincinnati

2. 9

3. 4