In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-1

Run Line Predictions: 1-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, UNDER 7.5, Mariners +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles will begin a six-game, West Coast road trip on Tuesday, with the first stop coming in Seattle, Washington to take on the Mariners.

Baltimore enters tonight’s matchup fresh off a series win over the Texas Rangers, winning the first three games of the series before getting blown out on Sunday night. That series victory pushed the Orioles’ record to a stellar 53-31, good enough for first place in the AL East, while the Mariners sit in first place in the NL West at 47-39 following a series loss to the Minnesota Twins over the weekend.

Both Baltimore and Seattle have run into a small drought when it comes to winning baseball games, but our model expects the Orioles to be the team that rights the ship in a low-scoring affair tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Baltimore Orioles

• Enter series after taking down Rangers three games to one

  • Won Games 1 though 3 before losing Game 4

  • +2 run differential across those four contests

• However, Baltimore is just 4-6 in last 10 games dating back to June 21st, mostly because of pitching staff

  • Starters- 5.37 ERA (23rd), 4.42 xFIP (24th), 15.7% strikeout rate (28th)

  • Relievers- 6.54 ERA (30th), 3.98 xFIP (16th), 23.9% strikeout rate (15th)

• Starting pitcher- Grayson Rodriguez

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.72 ERA vs 3.89 xERA

  • Struggles with fly balls (36.4% Ground Ball rate), but solid at generating swings and misses (29.5% Whiff rate) and strikeouts (25.7% strikeout rate)

Seattle Mariners

• Fresh off series loss to Minnesota Twins

  • Outscored Twins 3-2 in Game 1, but lost 5-1 in Game 2 and 5-3 in Game 3

  • Have now lost seven of last ten games

• Poor offense has been catalyst for losing skid

  • Rank 25th in wRC+ (81), 24th in BABIP (.269), and 28th in OPS (.614) over last ten games

  • Strikeouts are largest issue- 29.1% strikeout rate ranks 28th in MLB in last ten games

• Starting pitcher- George Kirby

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.35 ERA vs 3.35 xERA

  • Great control on mound- 2.3% walk rate ranks in top 1% of MLB

What’s the Play?

We expect to see a pitchers duel on the mound today between Rodriguez and Kirby, and as a result we will be backing the under in tonight’s matchup.

Baltimore’s offense has been stellar over the last ten games despite not picking up many wins, but as previously discussed, the losses have piled up due to the pitching staff. However, Grayson Rodriguez provides much more stability on the mound tonight, as he has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, and combining his stuff against a struggling Mariners offense is a recipe for few runs.

Additionally, Kirby has been tough for even the best offenses in the MLB to crack, resulting in a 1.70 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last 37.0 innings. We expect him to continue his dominance on the mound here, and that will likely lead to a tightly-contested and low-scoring contest.

The Play: Under 7.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 55-29 overall this season, 22-15 as the away team

• Houston Astros- 43-41 overall this season, 10-1 in last 11 games

• Baltimore Orioles- 53-31 overall this season, 24-14 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 39-38-6 this season, 20-18-2 as the away team

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 46-35-5 this season, 27-13-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 47-35 this season, 17-14 as a home favorite

🔥 Astros beat Blue Jays for 10th win in 11 games. Hunter Brown pitched six scoreless innings, Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez hit home runs, and the Houston Astros defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 3-1 for their 10th win in 11 games. The Blue Jays struggled with runners in scoring position, leaving eight on base and going 0 for 6, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was scratched due to hand pain. Despite Yariel Rodríguez's solid outing, Peña and Alvarez's homers secured the victory for Houston.

💪 Mets spoil Wood’s debut, beat Nationals in 10 innings. J.D. Martinez and Jose Iglesias hit homers in a six-run 10th inning, helping the New York Mets defeat the Washington Nationals 9-7, spoiling the major league debut of top outfield prospect James Wood. Francisco Alvarez contributed three RBIs and two extra-base hits for the Mets, who broke a two-game losing streak and have won 17 of their last 23 games. Despite a four-run rally by Washington in the bottom of the 10th, Reed Garrett secured the save for the Mets, while Wood had a notable debut with a single in his first plate appearance.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What Heisman Trophy winning cornerback was selected with the No.4 overall pick in the 1998 NFL Draft?

Question #2- Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, and what first baseman were the only three players to record a 1.000 OPS or higher during the 2009 MLB season?

Question #3- What NBA franchise has won the most championships, collecting 18 in total?

Anyone know what has happened on July 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 2nd…

1979- Former NHL star Joe Thornton is born in St. Thomas, Ontario, Canada. Thornton was selected No.1 overall in the 1997 NHL Draft by the Boston Bruins when he was just 18 years old, and would also play for the San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Florida Panthers in his career. He would end his career with 1,539 points, which curently ranks 14th in NHL history.

1985- Former NFL player Chad Henne is born in Reading, Pennsylvania. Henne stormed onto the football scene during his time at Wilson Senior High School in Pennsylvania, which earned him a spot on the University of Michigan’s roster. He would later be selected in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft, and played for the Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Kansas City Chiefs during his career.

2013- Cincinnati Reds pitcher Homer Bailey throws a no-hitter against the San Francisco Giants. It took 109 pitches for Bailey to record all 27 outs, and he struck out nine and walked just one opponent on his way to a dominant win. It was the second no-hitter of Bailey’s career, with the first coming just 10 months prior.

1. Charles Woodson

2. Prince Fielder

3. Boston Celtics