Expect Plenty of Goals in Toronto

One Best Bet Today

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NHL Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

NBA Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 5-1

Over/Under Predictions: 4-2

Spread Predictions: 1-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

NHL🏒

Toronto Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews (Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

12 NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 12 matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Arizona Coyotes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Model Predicts- Maple Leafs ML, OVER 6.5, Coyotes +1.5

The Arizona Coyotes will continue their five-game road trip on Thursday, with the next stop coming in Toronto, Ontario to take on the Maple Leafs.

Arizona enters tonight’s matchup in the midst of a brutal cold spell, one that has seen the Coyotes lose 13 consecutive games. Toronto is also coming into tonight’s battle off a loss, but the Maple Leafs are 8-2 in their last ten games and continue to rise in the standings.

Arizona and Toronto could not be further apart right now in terms of production, but our model still expects both teams to find the back of the net tonight as it is predicting a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Arizona Coyotes
  • Enter tonight on 13-game losing streak

    • Losing streak began on January 24th

    • -29 goal differential in that time

  • Defense/goaltending struggling during losing streak

    • Rank 32nd in GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations (3.80)

    • Have allowed at least four goals in 10 of last 13 games

  • Expected goalie- Connor Ingram

    • .921 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 15th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +7.4

Toronto Maple Leafs
  • Coming off loss to Golden Knights

    • Lost 6-2. Loss snapped seven-game win streak

  • Dominant offense in February

    • Rank inside top-10 in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) and GF/60 in 5-on-5

    • +15 goal differential since February 1st

  • Expected goalie- Ilya Samsonov

    • .898 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 90th in GSAx (-11.5)

What’s the Play?

Toronto has been the far better team over the last five weeks, but we agree with our model that this is a good spot to back the over.

The biggest issue for both teams is shaky goaltending, and that will likely continue tonight with Ingram and Samsonov in net. Ingram has surrendered an average of 3.71 goals per game across his last seven appearances, and Samsonv has consistently been one of the worst goaltenders this season, allowing five goals on 32 shots the last time we saw him between the pipes.

Toronto should have no problems scoring tonight, but we also wouldn’t be surprised to see Arizona keep pace. That should lead to a high-scoring contest.

The Play: Over 6.5 (-120)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • Dallas Stars- 35-17-9 overall this season, 17-8-4 as the home team

  • Los Angeles Kings- 29-19-10 overall this season, 18-9-4 as the away team

  • Arizona Coyotes- Over is 31-23-4 this season with average total of 6.21

  • Toronto Maple Leafs- Over is 32-24-2 this season with average total of 6.91

  • Buffalo Sabres- Puck line is 32-27 this season

  • Minnesota Wild- Puck line is 32-27 this season

News Around the League

⭐️ Stars trade for Chris Tanev. The Calgary Flames traded defenseman Chris Tanev to the Dallas Stars for a 2024 second-round pick, a 2026 conditional third-round pick, and defense prospect Artem Grushnikov, with the Flames retaining 50% of Tanev's $4.5-million cap hit and the New Jersey Devils retaining a further 25% of his salary. In return, the Devils received the Stars' 2026 fourth-rounder, and Dallas got the rights to goaltender Cole Brady. Tanev, a 34-year-old veteran, has contributed one goal and 14 points in 56 games this season and ranks second in the league with 171 blocks, becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer.

💰 Canucks close to extension with Elias Pettersson. The Vancouver Canucks and Elias Pettersson are close to finalizing an eight-year contract extension, although it's not yet finalized. The new deal, expected to be completed soon, could exceed the $11.5-million average annual value of William Nylander's contract. Pettersson, drafted fifth overall in 2017, is on track for his second consecutive 100-point season, having scored 29 goals and 46 assists in 61 games for the Canucks this year.

Trivia Section🧠

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and what other player rank first, second, and third, respectively, on the NBA’s all-time scoring list?

Question #2- What university did Jordan Love attend prior to being selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers?

Question #3- Who did the Houston Astros defeat in the 2017 World Series?

On This Day in History🗓

Former Boston Bruins star Ray Bourque (The Athletic)

Anyone know what has happened on February 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On February 29th…

1972- Hank Aaron signs a three-year, $600,000 contract with the Atlanta Braves. The contract came after one of Aaron’s best seasons, one in which he posted a .327 batting average, 47 home runs, and 118 RBIs. The deal also made Aaron the first player in MLB history to earn a $200,000 average annual salary.

1980- Gordie Howe scores a goal in third period of the Hartford Whaler’s 3-0 victory over the St. Louis Blues. The goal gave Howe 800 for his career, making him the first NHL player to reach the milestone. Howe would end his career with 801 goals, the third most in NHL history behind Wayne Gretzky and Alexander Ovechkin.

1992- Boston Bruins star Ray Bourque records one goal and two assists in a 5-5 tie with the Washington Capitals. The three-point performance gave Bourque 1,000 for his career, becoming only the third defenseman in NHL history to reach the mark. Bourque would finish his career with 1,579 points, the 11th most in NHL history.

Trivia Answers

  1. Karl Malone

  2. Utah State University

  3. Los Angeles Dodgers