In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-8

Over/Under Predictions: 8-6

Run Line Predictions: 9-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

16 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 15 of those matchups can be found below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 8.5, Marlins +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles will continue their six-game road trip on Wednesday, taking on the Marlins in Game 2 of a three-game series.

Baltimore came up short in Game 1 on Tuesday night, falling by a final score of 6-3. That loss was the second consecutive defeat for Baltimore and seventh in their last ten games, while the win was the fourth in the last six contests for Miami.

Neither one of these squads has played particularly well over the last ten games, but our model spots some value on the Orioles this evening in what it is projecting to be a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Baltimore Orioles

• Enter tonight on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Rangers, one loss to Marlins

  • -4 run differential in that span. Now own 2-2 record since All-Star break

• Offense has been strong despite recent losses

  • Rank 4th in wRC+ (144), 7th in BABIP (.305), and 4th in OPS in four games since All-Star break

  • Doing tons of damage with long ball- 8 homers since July 19th is fourth-most in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Chayce McDermott

  • First start of major league career. Owns 3-5 record and 3.96 ERA in minor leagues this season

Miami Marlins

• Won Game 1 of series on Tuesday

  • Outscored Baltimore 6-3. All six runs came in first three innings of game

• Have been surprisingly good at the plate since All-Star break

  • Rank 7th in wRC+ (115), 4th in BABIP (.321), and 7th in OPS (.761)

  • Averaging 4.0 runs per game and 8.4 hits per game in that stretch

• Starting pitcher- Edward Cabrera

  • Due for positive regression, but still expected to be bad- 7.36 ERA vs 5.47 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 5% in walk rate (13.1%)

What’s the Play?

We saw the Orioles and Marlins combine for nine runs last night in a game that had tons of offense early, and we agree with our model that both teams can reach that total again tonight.

Tonight will be the first time we see Chayce McDermott on an MLB mound, making it difficult to predict how things will go. On paper it looks like he has an easy matchup, but as discussed above, Miami has suddenly developed an offensive presence since the All-Star break, and we believe the Marlins can capitalize on facing a rookie.

Additionally, Edward Cabrera has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season. Not only does he have poor command, but even when he attacks the strike zone he often gets lit up, as evidenced by ranking in the bottom 3% of the MLB in Barrel rate (13.6%) and Hard Hit rate (47.7%), per Baseball Savant.

Two hot offenses should be able to take care of whatever McDermott and Cabrera throw their way. As a result, we’ll back the over here.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 64-37 overall this season, 27-21 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 51-50 overall this season, 24-23 as the away team

• Kansas City Royals- 56-46 overall this season, 35-19 as the home team, and 7-3 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 52-39-9 this season, 21-9-2 as a road favorite

• Miami Marlins- Over is 54-45-2 this season, 36-16-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Los Angeles Angels- Run line is 57-44 this season, 28-22 as the away team

🤕 Mariners place key players on injured list. The Seattle Mariners placed outfielder Julio Rodríguez on the injured list due to a high ankle sprain sustained while attempting a catch against the Houston Astros. Alongside Rodríguez, shortstop J.P. Crawford was also placed on the IL with a hand fracture, and first baseman Ty France was designated for assignment. The Mariners called up Jonatan Clase, Cade Marlowe, and Leo Rivas from Triple-A Tacoma, while the team, despite recent struggles, remains tied for first in the AL West.

🏴‍☠️ Skenes pitches into 9th inning, but suffers first career loss. Paul Skenes lost for the first time as a professional after Alec Burleson's tiebreaking single in the ninth inning gave the St. Louis Cardinals a 2-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite pitching into the ninth inning for the first time in his major league career, Skenes allowed two runs and four hits over 8 1/3 innings, striking out eight with no walks. Nolan Arenado's fifth-inning home run and Nick Gonzales' eighth-inning RBI single set up Burleson's game-winning hit, ending Skenes' streak of 24 professional appearances without a loss.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2008. We’ve gathered the logos of the top-six highest-scoring players of the 2008 NBA season, and its up to you to guess all six players.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 24th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 24th…

1978- Pete Rose passes Frankie Frisch to become the MLB’s switch-hit leader with his 2,881st hit. Rose is widely regarded as one of the best hitters in MLB history, recording a major-league most 4,256 throughout his career. However, his ability to do damage from both sides of the plate was perhaps his most valuable trait, posting career averages of .307 and .293 from the left and right side of the plate, respectively.

1979- Boston Red Sox left-fielder Carl Yastrzemski hits his 400th career home run in a 7-3 victory over the Oakland Athletics. The homer made Yastrzemski just the second Red Sox player to reach the 400 home run milestone, joining Ted Williams on the prestigious list. Yastrzemski, who played his entire MLB career in Boston, would retire with 452 home runs, placing him 40th on the all-time list.

1993- New York Mets pitcher Anthony Young records his 27th consecutive loss, setting a new MLB record. Young was mostly used as a starter during the miserable stretch, where he posted an 0-14 record, but was also heavily utilized out of the bullpen, where he posted an 0-13 record. The streak came to an end on July 28th, 1993, the day he earned his first win since April 19, 1992.

1. Dwyane Wade

2. LeBron James

3. Kobe Bryant

4. Dirk Nowitzki

5. Kevin Durant

6. Antawn Jameson