In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-8

Over/Under Predictions: 3-10

Run Line Predictions: 7-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

17 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 15 of those 17 matchups can be found below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 9, Blue Jays +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles will continue their 10-game road trip on Wednesday, taking on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 2 of a three-game series.

Toronto got the best of Baltimore last night, taking down its AL East rival by a final score of 5-2 thanks to an offensive explosion in the fifth inning. That win ended a two-game losing skid for the Blue Jays, while the loss ended a two-game win streak for the Orioles.

Our model projects the Orioles to be a sizable favorite in this matchup and shows some value on their money line, however, we are more concerned with the total in tonight’s ball game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Baltimore Orioles

• Lost Game 1 of series last night

  • Lost game 5-2. Recorded only three hits

  • Now 6-5 in season series with Toronto

• Offense has been average this month, but has some bright spots

  • The bad- Own 101 wRC+ and 28.3% Strikeout rate since August 1st

  • The good- .333 BABIP and 25 runs scored rank in top-seven of MLB this month

• Starting pitcher- Trevor Rogers

  • Bad pitcher who is expected to get worse- 4.76 ERA vs 5.12 xERA

  • Surrenders tons of contact- bottom 18% of MLB in Whiff rate (21.2%) and Strikeout rate (17.8%)

Toronto Blue Jays

• Ended two-game losing streak with win last night

  • All five runs Blue Jays scored came in 5th inning

  • Nine hits were second-most in last six games

• Offense has been strong in August

  • Rank 11th in wRC+ (110), 2nd in BABIP (.365), and 14th in OPS (.732)

  • Hitting .266 as a team- tied for 7th in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Bowden Francis

  • Pitching to expectations- 5.64 ERA vs 5.44 xERA

What’s the Play?

The last five games between the Orioles and Blue Jays have seen an average of 11.4 runs scored per game. It’s not easy to reach that number consistently, but we agree with our model that tonight will likely be another high-scoring affair between these division rivals.

Trevor Rogers and Bowden Francis are known to be pitching for contact, but that contact they surrender is far from the contact any pitcher wants to see. Rogers ranks in the bottom 9% of the major leagues in Hard Hit rate this season, and simultaneously owns a 9% Barrel rate. Francis is slightly better at avoiding the hard contact, but he instead ranks in the bottom 12% of the MLB in xBA, Barrel rate, and Ground Ball rate.

Both starters are vulnerable to the barrel, and Rogers’ inability to create soft contact along with Francis’ inability to keep balls on the ground benefits both offenses today. As a result, we’ll back the high-scoring trend to continue.

The Play: Over 9 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 67-45 overall this season, 35-18 as the home team

• Kansas City Royals- 63-52 overall this season, 36-24 as the home team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 67-46 overall this season, 29-25 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 64-41-9 this season, 34-18-3 as the away team

• Toronto Blue Jays- Over is 61-49-3 this season, 26-13 vs division opponents (Play AL East rival Baltimore today)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 63-49 this season, 18-8 as a home underdog

🙏 White Sox snap 21-game losing streak with win over A’s. The Chicago White Sox ended their 21-game losing streak with a 5-1 win over the Oakland Athletics, highlighted by rookie Jonathan Cannon's six innings of one-run ball and Andrew Benintendi's offensive performance. Relievers Dominic Leone, Chad Kuhl, and John Brebbia secured the victory, while Benintendi contributed a home run, a double, and two runs scored. Despite the win, the White Sox (28-88) are still on track to potentially surpass the 1962 New York Mets' record of 120 losses in a season.

😬 Valdez loses no-hitter with two outs in ninth inning. Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros came close to his second career no-hitter, but Corey Seager hit a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth inning. Valdez was then replaced by closer Josh Hader, who secured the final out for a 4-2 Astros win. Valdez, who previously threw a no-hitter on August 1, 2023, against the Cleveland Guardians, expressed satisfaction with his performance and the team's victory despite narrowly missing another no-hitter.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Utah Jazz joined the NBA in 1974 as an expansion team, but did not move to their current home in Salt Lake City until 1979. What city did the Jazz call home for their first several seasons?

Question #2- Former NFL quarterback Brett Favre is mostly known for his time as a Green Bay Packer, but the Favre actually began his Hall of Fame career with another franchise. What team did Favre play on in his first season?

Question #3- Only one Toronto Blue Jays pitcher has thrown a no-hitter in the franchise’s history, which came in a 3-0 win over the Cleveland Indians in 1990. Who was that pitcher?

Anyone know what has happened on August 7th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 7th…

1960- American golfer Arnold Palmer defeats Jack Fleck and Bill Collins at the Insurance City Open. Palmer staged quite the comeback to win the event, erasing a five-stroke deficit to force a playoff. The victory was the 20th for Palmer on the PGA Tour, and he would go on to end his career with 62 Tour wins.

1992- The Orlando Magic sign Shaquille O’Neal, who the team selected with the No.1 overall pick in the 1992 NBA Draft. Shaq would suit up for Orlando from 1992-1996, winning the NBA’s Rookie of the Year Award in his first season and taking home his first scoring title following the 1994-95 season. He would then go on to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers prior to the 1996 season, and would also play for the Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Boston Celtics in his career.

2007- Barry Bonds hits his 756th career home run in a 8-6 loss to the Washington Nationals. The homer came in the fifth inning against Washington pitcher Mike Bacsik and broke a tie with Hank Aaron to catapult Bonds to the top of the all-time home runs list, which is where he still sits to this day after ending his career with 762.

1. New Orleans, Louisiana

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. Dave Stieb