In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-3

Over/Under Predictions: 3-5

Run Line Predictions: 3-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

Model Predicts- Royals ML, OVER 8.5, Guardians +1.5

The Kansas City Royals will begin a short three-game road trip on Tuesday evening, traveling to Cleveland, Ohio to battle the Guardians.

Kansas City enters tonight’s matchup off a series loss to the San Diego Padres over the weekend, losing two of three games. However, the Royals still find themselves in second place in the AL Central division with a 36-25 record, while Cleveland sits atop the same division at 39-20.

We are set for what will likely be a great AL Central battle, and our model projects the Royals to emerge victorious in a high-scoring contest. Let’s dive into why that is.

Kansas City Royals

• Lost most recent series to San Diego Padres

  • Outscored 11-8 in Game 1 and 7-3 in Game 2 before winning Game 3

  • -6 run differential in series

• Have now lost six of last eight games, largely because of poor bullpen

  • Relievers own 7.94 ERA in last eight games- Ranks 30th in MLB (FanGraphs)

  • For entire season group ranks 25th in ERA (4.44), 24th in FIP (4.18), and 30th in xFIP (4.70)

• Starting pitcher- Seth Lugo

  • Great start to year, but due for regression- 1.72 ERA vs 3.69 xERA

Cleveland Guardians

• Won weekend series vs Washington Nationals

  • Outscored Washington 7-1 in Game 1 and 3-2 in Game 2. Lost Game 3 5-2

• Enter tonight having won 12 of last 15 games

  • Hitters- 117 wRC+ (4th), .748 OPS (6th), and .277 BABIP (21st) in that span

  • Pitchers- 3.72 ERA (13th), 3.74 FIP (12th), and 3.50 xFIP (4th) in that span

• Starting pitcher- Triston McKenzie

  • Sluggish start expected to get worse- 3.77 ERA vs 4.59 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 10% of MLB in Fastball velocity (90.9 mph), Barrel rate (11.5%), and walk rate (13.8%)

What’s the Play?

Our model is showing some value on the Royals as a slight underdog, but we’d prefer to back its prediction of the over in this spot.

Triston McKenzie hasn’t performed well on the mound this season, and several underlying metrics only expect him to get worse. That is largely due to the fact that his fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph from a season ago, which has led to a 2.4% increase in Barrel rate, both of which are bad news against a Royals squad that ranks second in wRC+ since May 17th. We’ve also seen him have troubles with his control this season, which will likely get several Royals hitters on base this evening.

Additionally, Seth Lugo owns a 9-1 record and 1.74 ERA, but he is another candidate for regression, and has arguably the weakest bullpen in the league behind him.

McKenzie and the Royals relievers are both candidates for a blowup, while Lugo is due to see his luck change in the near future. Those factors, along with two great hitting teams, should lead to a high-scoring contest.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 42-19 overall this season, 25-9 as the home team

• Kansas City Royals- 36-25 overall this season, 12-8 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Cleveland today)

• San Diego Padres- 32-31 overall this season, 19-12 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 34-21-2 this season 15-9-2 as the away team

• Detroit Tigers- Over is 33-24-3 this season, 19-11-1 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 36-23 this season, highest win % in MLB (61.0%)

🎰 Tucupita Marcano potentially facing lifetime ban for betting on baseball games. San Diego Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano is under investigation for potentially betting on baseball, which could lead to a lifetime ban from MLB. The league is looking into claims that Marcano, while on the injured list last season, bet on Pittsburgh Pirates games, and four other players also face potential discipline for betting while in the minors. The Padres and Pirates are cooperating with the investigation but have withheld further comments until the process is complete.

🤕 Kyle Tucker exits game vs Cardinals with shin injury. Houston Astros star Kyle Tucker was forced to exit last night’s win over the St. Louis Cardinals due to a shin injury. The injury occurred in the third inning after Tucker fouled a pitch from Kyle Gibson off his shin. Tucker is listed as day-to-day, and any extended absence would be a big loss for a struggling Houston squad as Tucker has hit 19 homers and recorded 40 RBIs this season

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What current MLB player holds the record for the most home runs hit in their rookie season with 53?

Question #2- The Los Angeles Lakers lost to what Eastern Conference team in five games in the 2004 NBA Finals?

Question #3- The Edmonton Oilers clinched their first Stanley Cup appearance since what year following their Western Conference Finals win over the Dallas Stars on Sunday?

Anyone know what has happened on June 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 4th…

2008- The Detroit Red Wings defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals. Detroit took down Pittsburgh in six games, which included closing out the series with a 3-2 win in Game 6. The victory was the 11th Stanley Cup in the Red Wings history.

2010- Legendary college basketball coach John Wooden passes away at the age of 99. Wooden was best known for his time as the head coach of the UCLA Bruins, where he led the Bruins to 12 Final Four appearances and 10 national titles from 1948-1975. He would also coach for Indiana State during his career, and accumulated a 664-162 record during his time coaching college basketball.

2019- MLB manager Bruce Bochy records his 1,000th managerial win with the San Francisco Giants. Bochy reached the milestone in a 9-3 Giants win over the New York Mets, making him the second manager in Giants history to reach 1,000 wins with the franchise. Bochy currently has 2,122 wins in his managerial career, which ranks him 10th in MLB history.

1. Pete Alonso

2. Detroit Pistons

3. 2006