In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-6

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6-1

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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11 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 11 matchups can be found below.

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Model Predicts- Diamondbacks ML, OVER 8.5, Diamondbacks -1.5

The Colorado Rockies will embark on a short-three game road trip on Monday, taking aim at defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks in Phoenix, Arizona.

Colorado enters this matchup off a surprise series win over the Atlanta Braves, one in which the Rockies scored at least six runs in all three games. However, those wins haven’t done much to bolster the Rockies record this month, which sits at 5-5, while the Diamondbacks have taken down almost every team in their path, posting an 8-2 record since August 2nd.

Arizona is arguably the hottest team in baseball right now, and our model expects the hot streak to continue today in a high-scoring contest. Let’s dive into why that is.

Colorado Rockies

• Enter matchup off series win over Braves

  • Outscored Atlanta 6-5 in Game 1 and 9-8 in Game 2. Lost Game 3 by a score of 11-8

  • Now victorious in two of three series played in August

• Offense was key to staying competitive vs Atlanta

  • Posted a 138 wRC+, .486 BABIP, and .901 OPS across three games

  • 23 runs scored were third-most in MLB dating back to last Friday

• Starting pitcher- Scheduled to be Cal Quantrill, but is unknown

  • Pitching to expectations- 4.56 ERA vs 4.69 xERA

  • Vulnerable to contact- Ranks in bottom 27% of MLB in Whiff rate (22.4%) and Strikeout rate (17.4%)

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Enter matchup off series win vs Phillies

  • Outscored 6-4 in Game 1, but outscored Philly 26-8 across final three games

  • Have now won 15 of last 18 games

• Offense has been best in MLB this month by wide margin

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (160)- next closest team is at 138 (Milwaukee)

  • Rank 6th in BABIP (.321), 1st in OPS (.945), and 1st in on base % (.370)

• Starting pitcher- Brandon Pfaadt

  • Due for positive regression- 3.92 ERA vs 3.31 xERA

  • Great command on mound- 5.2% Walk rate ranks in top 10% of MLB

What’s the Play?

Cal Quantrill was scheduled to start tonight’s game, but it is being reported that Colorado intends to push his start back a few days due to a forearm injury. That does make things a bit of a mystery here, however, we still believe this is a good spot to back the over.

This is the best the Colorado offense has looked this season, and Brandon Pfaadt provides the Rockies with a plus matchup despite what underlying metrics may indicate. Per Baseball. Savant, Pfaadt ranks in the bottom 50% of the MLB in Whiff and Strikeout rate this season, and the abundance of contact hasn’t been the contact a pitcher wants, as he simultaneously ranks in the bottom 43% in Hard Hit rate (39.6%).

Additionally, offense has been the name of the game in this season series, with Colorado and Arizona combining for an average of 10.14 runs per game in nine matchups. Both offenses are hot and capable of keeping that trend going, so we are going to back the over here despite some questions on the mound for Colorado.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Guardians- 69-49 overall this season, 35-20 as the home team and 2-0 in last two games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 67-50 overall this season, 33-22 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Cubs- Under is 62-52-5 this season, 30-26-4 as the away team

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 65-50-4 this season, 28-17 as a home favorite

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 65-52 overall this season, 28-14 as a road underdog

🤕 River Ryan out for rest of season with elbow injury. The Los Angeles Dodgers' pitching rotation suffered another setback as rookie right-hander River Ryan will miss the rest of the season due to an elbow injury. Manager Dave Roberts expressed concern about the team's ability to keep pitchers healthy, highlighting ongoing challenges in managing workloads. Ryan, who had a promising season with a 1.33 ERA, will be replaced on the roster by Landon Knack.

🧹 Astros bring out the brooms in Boston. Alex Bregman hit a three-run homer, sparking a five-run fifth inning, and Yordan Alvarez followed with his third homer in two games as the Houston Astros defeated the Boston Red Sox 10-2 to complete a three-game sweep. This victory marks the fifth straight win for the AL West-leading Astros, who have now won seven of their last eight series in Boston. Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz also contributed with a two-run homer and a two-run double, respectively, while Boston's struggles continued with their fourth straight loss.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who holds the record for the most goals scored in a single NHL (National Hockey League) season, and how many goals did they score?

Question #2- In the 1998 FIFA World Cup, which team's surprise victory over a heavily favored opponent in the quarterfinals is known as the "Miracle of Lyon"?

Question #3- In the 2020 Summer Olympics held in Tokyo, which were actually held in 2021, which sport was added to the Olympic program for the first time, allowing athletes to compete in a mixed-gender team event?

Anyone know what has happened on August 12th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 12th…

1974- California Angels pitcher Nolan Ryan strikes out 19 batters in a 4-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox. Ryan picked up his 15th win of the season that day, surrendering just two earned runs and seven hits across nine innings. Ryan’s 19 punch outs set a new single-game strikeout record in Major League Baseball as well, surpassing the previous record of 18 strikeouts held by several pitchers.

2007- American golfer Tiger Woods wins the 89th PGA Championship, an event held at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Woods came out of the gates slow, shooing 1-over par on the first 18-holes, but catapulted to the top of the leaderboard following a tremendous 7-under par round on day two. Woods would go on to shoot 8-under par for the tournament to secure his fourth PGA Championship title and 13th major victory, defeating fellow American Woody Austin by two strokes.

2017- Usain Bolt comes up short in the final individual race of his career, the 100 meter dash at the World Championships in London, England. Bolt, despite being the favorite, finished in third place behind American sprinters Justin Gatlin and Christian Coleman. It marked the end of Bolt's illustrious sprinting career, where he had previously dominated the sport, setting numerous world records and winning multiple Olympic gold medals.

1. Wayne Gretzky, 92

2. Croatia

3. Skateboarding