In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-2

Over/Under Predictions: 3-2

Run Line Predictions: 3-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Model Predicts- Yankees ML, OVER 9, Blue Jays +1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays will continue their AL East road trip on Friday night, with the next stop coming in the Big Apple to battle the New York Yankees.

Toronto’s current road trip hasn’t gone as planned thus far, as the Blue Jays lost three of four games to another division rival, the Baltimore Orioles. Meanwhile, the Yankees just returned from a road trip that saw the team win five of six games, making New York one of the hottest teams in baseball.

These rivals are trending in opposite directions, but instead of picking a side in this matchup we have our eyes on the total. Let’s dive into why that is.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Road trip got off to bumpy start

  • Lost three of four games to Orioles. -12 run differential in series

  • Slump comes after sweeping the Texas Rangers only a few days prior

• Offense has been amongst MLB’s best over last seven games

  • Rank 8th in wRC+ (132), 5th in BABIP (.344), and 7th in OPS (.830)

  • .358 OBP ranks 6th in that span. Largely due to low strikeout rate (18.7%) and high BABIP

• Starting pitcher- Kevin Gausman

  • Due for some regression -4.44 ERA vs 4.85 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 15% in Hard Hit rate (43.2%) and Barrel rate (10.7%)

New York Yankees

• Enter today on five-game win streak

  • Two wins over Red Sox, three wins over Phillies

  • Own +21 run differential in that stretch

• Have been best hitting team in MLB since All-Star break

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (150), 6th in BABIP (.309), and 1st in OPS (.892)

  • 24 home runs and 78 runs scored both rank 2nd in MLB over last 12 games

• Starting pitcher- Marcus Stroman

  • Due for regression- 3.64 ERA vs 4.75 xERA

  • Some command issues (9.9% Walk rate) and vulnerable to contact- bottom 21% of MLB in Whiff and Strikeout rate

What’s the Play?

It’s always a good battle when Toronto and New York square off, and tonight should be no different as both offenses have found success over the last week. As a result, we are going to back the over here.

We feel Marcus Stroman is being overvalued in this spot. His xERA is more than a full run higher than his real ERA, largely due to his high contact rate and lack of command. Additionally, Toronto has proven it can have success when facing Stroman, as the Blue Jays have tagged him for 11 hits and five runs across 9.2 innings this season.

However, Gausman has a tough task on his hands too, as the Yankees are red hot and most recently put up 15 runs against Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez last series. The offense looks unstoppable right now, and Gausman’s inability to avoid the barrel could be his downfall here.

We think the offenses have the upper hand this evening, which should lead to a high-scoring affair.

The Play: Over 9 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Yankees- 65-45 overall this season, 27-23 as the home team, and 5-0 in last five games

• Cleveland Guardians- 66-42 overall this season, 34-15 as the home team, and 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Yankees- Over is 61-45-4 this season, 25-14-3 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Toronto today)

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 58-47-5 this season, 35-17-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 61-47 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (56.5%)

🤕 Mike Trout out for season due to torn meniscus. Mike Trout's 2024 season ended prematurely due to a second torn meniscus in his left knee, despite efforts to return after an initial injury in April. The Angels' general manager expressed optimism about Trout's recovery for the next season, while reflecting on the star's unfortunate history with injuries that have limited his play in recent years. At the time of his injury, Trout was leading the league in home runs, and his absence has contributed to the Angels' continued struggles, as they are on track for a ninth consecutive losing season.

🔟 Lively picks up 10th win of season in win over Baltimore. David Fry, José Ramírez, and Bo Naylor all hit home runs as the Cleveland Guardians defeated the Baltimore Orioles 10-3. Fry's three-run homer came off Trevor Rogers, who allowed five runs in his Orioles debut. Cleveland's strong offensive performance, including Ramírez's 28th homer and Naylor's three-run blast, was backed by a solid pitching effort from Ben Lively, earning him his 10th win.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The New York Yankees swept what team in four games to win the 1999 World Series?

Question #2- The San Antonio Spurs won the 2003 NBA Finals, defeating the New Jersey Nets in six games. Who was named the MVP of the series?

Question #3- Prior to being selected in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft, Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant played college basketball at what school?

Anyone know what has happened on August 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 2nd…

1982- MLB Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson steals his 100th base of the season in a 6-5 win over the Seattle Mariners. The steal marked the second time in Henderson’s career that he stole 100 bases in a season, making him the first player in the modern era to do so. Henderson ended his career with 1,406 steals, 478 more than any other player in MLB history.

1990- New York Yankees rookie first baseman Kevin Maas hits a home run in a 6-5 loss to the Detroit Tigers. It was the 10th homer of Maas’ young career, which he achieved in only 77 at-bats, a new MLB record. Maas would play in the MLB until 1995, suiting up for the Yankees and Twins, ending his career with 65 home runs.

1996- The United States men’s basketball team wins the gold medal at the Atlanta Olympics. The Dream Team defeated Yugoslavia to win the gold medal, blowing out their opponent 95-69. David Robinson led the way for the United States, recording 28 points and seven rebounds in the win.

1. Atlanta Braves

2. Tim Duncan

3. Murray State