In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers

Model Predicts- Tigers ML, OVER 7, Tigers -1.5

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers will continue their weekend series on Saturday, with Game 2 set to begin at 6:10 PM Eastern today.

Houston got the best of Detroit in Game 1, scoring four runs in the eighth inning to a take a 5-2 lead that would be held onto for the remainder of the game. The win was the second-straight for the Astros, while the loss was the sixth in the last seven games for the Tigers.

Neither one of these teams has had a strong season, but our model leans heavily towards the Tigers this evening in a high-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Houston Astros

• Enter today on two-game win streak

  • Wins over Yankees and Tigers. +4 run differential in that span

  • Wins snapped four-game losing streak

• Offense has been great despite poor record, and is more productive against left-handed pitchers

  • Season- 111 wRC+ (7th), .285 BABIP (16th), .736 OPS (7th), and 17.1% strikeout rate (1st)

  • Against lefties- 126 wRC+ (4th), .298 BABIP (12th), .789 OPS (4th), and 16.5% strikeout rate (1st)

  • Face lefty Tarik Skubal today

• Starting pitcher- Cristian Javier

  • Will be first game back on mound since April 11th

  • Ranks in bottom 30% in strikeout and walk rate, bottom 2% in ground ball rate (25.8%)

Detroit Tigers

• Have struggled to win games in May

  • 2-6 record since May 1st

  • Keeping games relatively close- own -4 run differential in that eight-game span

• Poor performance at plate has been reason for most losses

  • Rank 21st in wRC+ (85), 15th in BABIP (.286), and 24th in OPS (.642) since May 1st

  • 23.6% strikeout rate ranks in bottom-10 of MLB this month

• Starting pitcher- Tarik Skubal

  • Has been elite on mound this season- Ranks in top 7% in strikeout rate and walk rate. Owns 1.90 ERA vs 2.18 xERA

  • Two big concerns- struggles to keep balls on ground (42.2% GB%) and some vulnerability to barrel (6.9%)

What’s the Play?

We think our model may be giving the Tigers too much credit here, but we do agree that the over is a good bet at its current total of seven runs.

Skubal is an early candidate to win the AL Cy Young award, but his vulnerability to the barrel and inability to keep many balls on the ground could open the door for the Astros to do damage this afternoon. Skubal’s barrel rate isn’t all that high at 6.9%, but that is up from 4.2% a season ago and will likely continue to rise with how well the Astros have hit left-handed pitching this season. Skubal will also not be able to rely on striking out many hitters, as Houston isn’t a team that goes down on strikes often.

Additionally, Javier’s return to the mound gives Detroit a chance to climb out of its slump. Javier’s 1.54 ERA may not signal any struggles, but his 3.47 xERA shows that more runs are on the horizon, and his struggles with walks and ground balls will put plenty of ducks on the pond for Detroit today.

We saw these teams combine for seven runs yesterday, and we think that total is within reach once again this evening.

The Play: Over 7 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 27-12 overall this season, 12-5 as the away team

• New York Yankees- 26-14 overall this season, 7-3 in last 10 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 11-4-1 as the home team this season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 25-12-2 this season, 13-5-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• San Diego Padres- Run line is 22-19 this season, 14-5 as the away team

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 24-16 this season, 8-8 as a favorite

🏴‍☠️ Paul Skenes set to make MLB debut for Pirates. Paul Skenes, the No.1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, will make his MLB debut today against the Chicago Cubs. Skenes was a former standout at LSU and is the top pitching prospect, shining at Triple-A with a 0.99 ERA and 14.82 K/9 in seven starts. He looks forward to potentially teaming up with rookie Jared Jones, who has impressed with a 2.41 ERA and strong strikeout-to-walk ratio, describing the Pirates' rotation as exciting and enjoyable to watch as a fan.

🤕 Brash’s season comes to end after Tommy John surgery. Seattle Mariners' standout reliever Matt Brash will miss the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, confirmed by GM Justin Hollander. Brash, who led the league with 78 appearances last season, had been dealing with elbow discomfort since spring training. Despite efforts to rehab the injury, a setback led to the need for surgery, with a hope for a return in late spring or early summer of next year.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Only one point guard ranks inside the top-15 on the NBA’s all-time scoring list. Who is that player?

Question #2- Pro Football Hall of Famer Julius Peppers played on three teams in his NFL career- the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, and what other team?

Question #3- The San Francisco Giants defeated what team in five games to win the 2010 World Series?

Anyone know what has happened on May 11th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 11th…

1972- Baseball legend Willie Mays is traded by the San Francisco Giants. The Giants sent Mays to the New York Mets, receiving Charlie Williams and cash in return. Mays played for the Mets from 1972-73, and would go on to coach the team from 1974-1979.

1989- Former NFL quarterback Cam Newton is born in Atlanta, Georgia. Newton stormed on to the football scene at Westlake High School, where he played well enough to earn a scholarship to the University of Florida. He would eventually transfer to Auburn University, where he would win a national title and a Heisman Trophy, before being selected with the No.1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

1996- Florida Marlins pitcher Al Leiter throws a no-hitter against the Colorado Rockies. It took Leiter 103 pitches to record 27 outs, striking out six batters along the way to his sixth win of the season. The performance was the only no-hitter of Leiter’s career, and he also went on to be a two-time All-Star and three-time World Series Champion.

1. Oscar Robertson

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Texas Rangers