In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 0-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Six MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all six matchups can be found below.

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 8, Mets +1.5

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will wrap up their four-game series on Thursday evening, with the final game beginning at 6:40 Eastern at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia has dominated the series up to this point, winning each of the first three games, including a 10-5 victory on Wednesday. That dominance has been seen throughout a majority of the season thus far, as the Phillies own a league-best 31-13 record, while the Mets now sit in fourth place in the NL East at 19-23.

The talent gap between these two squads is significant, but our model expects a relatively close and high-scoring game this evening. Let’s dive into why that is.

New York Mets

• Poor showing in first half of May

  • Posted 4-9 record through 13 games. -16 run differential in that span

• Starting pitching staff has been crushed this month. Relievers getting hit around by Phillies

  • Starters own 5.12 ERA since May 1st- 25th in MLB (FanGraphs). Rank in bottom-eight in strikeout rate (18.5%) and walk rate (10.9%)

  • Relievers own 5.63 ERA and 6.12 xFIP vs Phillies over last three games

• Starting pitcher- Jose Quintana

  • Bad start to season expected to get worse- 5.44 ERA vs 6.20 xERA

  • Vulnerable to hard contact- Ranks in bottom 10% of MLB in Whiff rate (18.1%) and Strikeout rate (15.1%), bottom 14% in Hard Hit rate (46.0%)

Philadelphia Phillies

• Dominating Mets in most aspects in series

  • 3-0 record in series. +10 run differential in that time

  • Doing most of damage late in games- 16 of 19 runs scored in series have come in 6th inning or later

• Doing damage from both sides of plate this season

  • Vs Righties- 5th in wRC+ (114), 7th in BABIP (.295), 4th in OPS (.796)

  • Vs Lefties- 9th in wRC+ (116), 2nd in BABIP (.349), 9th in OPS (.752)

• Starting pitcher- Taijuan Walker

  • Due to see regression after 3-0 start- 4.82 ERA vs 5.93 xERA

  • Getting tagged often by opposing hitters- ranks in bottom 18% of MLB in Whiff rate (18.0%), and bottom 2% in Barrel rate (19.6%) and Ground Ball rate (26.8%)

What’s the Play?

Philadelphia has dominated much of this series, and we expect that to continue today against Jose Quintana. However, we also expect the Mets to do damage against their former teammate in Taijuan Walker, so we’ll be taking the over in this matchup.

Walker might be 3-0 on paper, but that is solely because the Phillies are providing him with tons of run support. Philadelphia has averaged 7.0 runs per game in Walker’s three starts, which has helped mask many of his struggles. Walker’s 19.6% Barrel rate is up from 6.9% a season ago while his xBA (expected batting average) has spiked to .277, showing that opposing hitters are consistently sizing him up despite Walker picking up wins.

The 1.11-run gap between Walker’s real ERA and xERA also signifies luck on the mound thus far, a gap that will likely close today against a Mets offense that ranks inside the top-11 in wRC+, on base %, and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Philadelphia should have no problems scoring against Quintana and the Mets either, as the Phillies offense has been great against left-handers and has crushed what is normally a solid bullpen. Take the over here at its current total of eight.

The Play: Over 8 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Yankees- 29-15 overall this season, 16-9 as the away team, and 6-4 as an underdog

• Philadelphia Phillies- 31-13 overall this season, 16-7 as the home team, and 8-2 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Over is 22-20-2 this season, 13-9-1 as the home team

• Cincinnati Reds- Under is 13-8-1 as an underdog, 11-10 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Oakland Athletics- Run line is 22-18 as an underdog this season

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 23-20 this season, 12-10 as an underdog

😬 Ronel Blanco handed 10-game suspension. Houston Astros pitcher Ronel Blanco received a 10-game suspension on Wednesday for violating MLB's foreign substance policy. Blanco was ejected from a game against the Oakland Athletics following a foreign substance check, with umpires finding a sticky substance on his glove. He isn't appealing the suspension, according to Astros GM Dana Brown, and joins a list of pitchers suspended for similar violations since MLB intensified its crackdown in 2021.

💪 Judge dominates in win over Minnesota. Aaron Judge’s 467-foot home run and three doubles led the New York Yankees to a 4-0 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday, contributing to his 16-for-36 performance with eight walks in his last 10 games. Yankees pitcher Marcus Stroman secured his first win in four starts by pitching six scoreless innings, while the team continued its strong historical record against the Twins, improving to 118-44 since 2002. Yankees' Anthony Volpe and Giancarlo Stanton also contributed to the win, with Volpe hitting a sacrifice fly and Stanton adding an RBI single.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Prior to his current stint with the Washington Nationals, Nick Senzel played for what NL Central team from 2019-2023?

Question #2- One player on the Carolina Hurricanes and another on the New York Islanders share the same first and last name. What is the name of both players?

Question #3- The Chicago Cubs selected what third baseman out of the University of San Diego with the No.2 overall pick in the 2013 MLB Draft?

Anyone know what has happened on May 16th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 16th…

1985- Chicago Bulls star Michael Jordan wins the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award. Jordan dominated for the Bulls during the 1994-95 season, averaging 28.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game while playing in all 82 games. That performance led to Jordan receiving 57.5 first place votes for the Rookie of the Year, while Hakeen Olajuwon received 20.5 and finished in second.

1996- Sammy Sosa becomes the first Chicago Cubs player to hit two home runs in the same inning. Sosa’s homers were two of four hit by the Cubs in a 13-1 win over the Houston Astros, with both coming in the seventh inning. Sosa would go on to hit 40 home runs during the 1996 season and 609 for his career, which ranks him ninth on the MLB’s all-time list.

2003- The Mighty Ducks of Anaheim defeat the Minnesota Wild in the Western Conference Finals. Anaheim took down Minnesota in four games to win the series 4-0, a series in which the Ducks scored nine goals and held the Wild to one. The Ducks would face the New Jersey Devils in the Stanley Cup Final, but came up short of hoisting the cup after losing the series in seven games.

1. Cincinnati Reds

2. Sebastian Aho

3. Kris Bryant