In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Betstamp…

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There were no model predictions yesterday, June 25, 2024.

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16 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for 15 of those matchups can be found below.

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays

Model Predicts- Mariners ML, UNDER 7.5, Rays +1.5

The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays will wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday afternoon, with the first pitch of Game 3 scheduled to take place at 12:10 PM Eastern.

Seattle has yet to find any momentum in this series, losing each of the first two games. Those losses now put the Mariners in the midst of a three-game losing skid, while the wins now give the Rays six victories in their last seven games.

Our model expects the Mariners to get back in the win column this afternoon, but we are more focused on the total in this matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Seattle Mariners

• Enter today on three-game losing streak

  • One loss to Marlins, two losses to Rays

  • -11 run differential in that span

• Offense is experiencing immense struggles during losing skid

  • Rank 18th in wRC+ (82), 28th in BABIP (.193), and 21st in OPS (.612) since June 23rd

  • Own 30.3% strikeout rate in last three games- bottom 5 in MLB

• Starting pitcher- George Kirby

  • Pitching to expectations- 3.47 ERA vs 3.39 xERA

  • Great at limiting walks and hard contact- 2.4% walk rate ranks in top 1% of MLB. 35.5% Hard Hir rate ranks in top 28%

Tampa Bay Rays

• Enter today having won six of last seven games

  • Two wins over Twins, two over Pirates, and two over Mariners

  • Have held opponents to four runs or less in six of seven games

• Pitching staff is dominating over that seven-game stretch

  • Starters- 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 4.22 xFIP

  • Relievers- 2.63 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 3.85 xFIP

• Starting pitcher- Ryan Pepiot

  • Due for positive regression- 4.61 ERA vs 3.81 xERA

  • Great strikeout pitcher- 27.8% strikeout rate ranks in top 16% of MLB

What’s the Play?

Our model has spotted value on backing the Mariners this afternoon, but we think this matchup is a better spot to back the under.

One issue that has plagued Seattle all season is strikeouts. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners rank last in the MLB in strikeout rate this season at 27.5%, which is 1.3% higher than any other team. That rate has ballooned to over 30.0% across the last three games, and we expect it to stay in that range today against a strikeout pitcher in Pepiot and a red-hot Rays bullpen.

However, it likely won’t be easy for Tampa Bay to pile on runs against George Kirby either, who is one of the best pitchers in the MLB when it comes to limiting walks and hard contact. He also has a solid bullpen behind him as well, which provides an extra layer of defense if things get out of hand early.

Pepiot and Kirby are both in a position to pitch well today, which should lead to few runs.

The Play: Under 7.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 52-27 overall this season, 21-15 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- 47-33 overall this season, 24-12 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 43-32-5 this season, 21-12-3 as the home team

• Chicago White Sox- Under is 42-36-3 this season, 23-15-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 47-32 overall this season, 40-24 as an underdog

🔟 Edwin Diaz begins serving 10-game suspension. New York Mets closer Edwin Díaz began a 10-game suspension on Tuesday after being ejected for having a foreign substance on his hand during a game against the Chicago Cubs. Umpire Vic Carapazza cited the substance as very sticky and not just a mix of rosin and sweat, leading to the automatic suspension which the Mets decided Díaz should serve immediately. Manager Carlos Mendoza plans to use a closer by committee during Díaz's absence, marking the third Mets pitcher suspended for a similar offense in the last 14 months.

🤕 Encarnacion-Strand likely out for rest of season. Cincinnati Reds first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand will undergo surgery on his right hand/wrist on July 11, with an expected recovery time of three months, causing him to miss the rest of the season. The 24-year-old fractured a bone in his hand in April and also sustained ligament damage, which necessitated the surgery. Despite his struggles this season, hitting .190 with two home runs in 29 games, the Reds remain in contention for a National League wild-card spot.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Rookies in the NBA usually fall between the ages of 19 and 22, but in 2012 one New York Knicks player made his NBA debut at the age of 35, making him the oldest rookie in NBA history. Who was that player?

Question #2- Tom Brady joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prior to the 2020-21 season beginning following a long tenure with the New England Patriots. Tampa Bay would go on to win the Super Bowl that season, the franchise’s second Super Bowl victory ever. What season did the Buccaneers win their first Super Bowl?

Question #3- Prior to making the postseason in 2022, the Seattle Mariners had one of the longest playoff droughts in professional sports. How long was that drought?

Anyone know what has happened on June 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 26th…

1996- The Philadelphia 76ers select Allen Iverson with the first overall pick of the 1996 NBA Draft. Iverson played two seasons at Georgetown University prior to joining the NBA, leading the Hoyas to a Sweet 16 appearance in 1995 and an Elite 8 appearance in 1996. Iverson would play for the Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, and Memphis Grizzlies in addition to the 76ers, earning 11 All-Star selections and one MVP award in that time.

2003- The Cleveland Cavaliers select LeBron James with the first overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft. James was just 18 years old at the time, bypassing the NCAA and going straight to the NBA following his senior year at St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in Akron, Ohio. Since entering the NBA James has earned four NBA titles, four regular season and NBA Finals MVPs, and is the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.

2020- The Colorado Avalanche defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals, giving Colorado its third Stanley Cup in Franchise history. Tampa Bay entered the postseason with a massive target on its back, a result of winning the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021, but fell into a deep hole early after being outscored 11-3 across Games 1 and 2 in the series. Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar was named MVP at the age of 23.

1. Pablo Prigioni

2. 2002-2003

3. 21 years