In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 7-7-1

Run Line Predictions: 9-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Nationals ML, OVER 8, Nationals +1.5

The Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals will continue their three-game series on Wednesday, with the first pitch of Game 2 scheduled to take place at 6:45 PM Eastern.

Kansas City narrowly stole the victory in Game 1 on Tuesday to open the series, grabbing a 1-0 win in a game that went 10 innings. However, the Royals are just 3-7 in their last ten games despite the victory, which is coincidentally the same record the Nationals own over their last ten games.

Neither team has performed well down the home stretch of the regular season, but our model projects the Nationals to do just enough tonight to emerge victorious. Let’s dive into why that is.

Kansas City Royals

• Won Game 1 of series in ugly fashion

  • Recorded eight hits and four walks in the game. 12 batters struck out

  • Only run came in 10th inning on throwing error

• Struggling offense has put playoff hopes in jeopardy

  • Own 34 wRC+ (30th), .250 BABIP (29th), and .459 OPS (30th) since September 17th (six games)

  • Have been held to one run or less in five of last six games. Outscored by opponents 20-5 in that stretch

• Starting pitcher- Michael Lorenzen

  • Due for regression- 3.43 ERA vs 4.62 xERA

  • Has not pitched in game since August 27th due to hamstring injury

Washington Nationals

• Have lost seven of last eight games

  • Three losses to Mets, three losses to Cubs, one loss to Royals

  • Own -25 run differential in that span

• Offense has been just as bad as Kansas City’s in that stretch

  • 54 wRC+ (29th), .257 BABIP (29th), .543 OPS (29th)

  • Have hit three home runs and scored just 14 runs in last eight games- both rank bottom-three in MLB

• Starting pitcher- DJ Herz

  • Due for positive regression- 4.30 ERA vs 3.32 xERA

What’s the Play?

Kansas City and Washington each boast a bottom-five offense in the MLB at the moment. However, we agree with our model that the Nationals are in position to win tonight’s game.

Michael Lorenzen has been solid on the mound for the Royals, but many underlying metrics are not in his favor. His xERA sits 1.19 runs higher than his real ERA, hinting that he has been lucky on the mound, and he simultaneously ranks in the bottom 13% of the major leagues in Walk rate (11.2%) and Strikeout rate (17.7%), per Baseball Savant. He is surrendering loads of contact and has poor command, which will likely lead to many baserunners and trigger his pending regression.

Meanwhile, Herz is set to allow fewer runs, as evidenced by his xERA being 0.98 runs lower than his real ERA. The left-hander also ranks in the top 16% of the majors in xBA (.214) and Strikeout rate (28.5%), further showing how strong of an option he is on the mound.

Lorenzen puts the Nationals offense in a position to break out of its slump, while Herz will likely keep a struggling Kansas City offense in check. As a result, we’ll back the Nationals as outright winners tonight.

The Play: Nationals ML (+100)

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Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 87-70 overall this season, 43-33 as the away team

• Boston Red Sox- 80-78 overall this season, 43-37 as the away team, and 4-0 in last four games

• St. Louis Cardinals- 80-77 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cincinnati Reds- Under is 77-73-8 this season, 40-35-6 as the away team

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 90-61-7 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (59.6%)

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 86-71 this season, 30-25 as a home underdog

🐅 Skubal goes seven innings to bring Tigers closer to postseason. Tarik Skubal dominated with seven scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and striking out seven to lead the Detroit Tigers to a 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, pushing them closer to a playoff spot. Wenceel Pérez delivered a crucial two-run double in the fifth inning, and Beau Brieske secured the victory despite giving up a late home run to Brandon Lowe. The Tigers are now tied with Kansas City for a wild-card spot, having surged to an MLB-best 28-11 since mid-August.

🤕 Austin Riley’s hand injury officially ends his season. The Atlanta Braves will have to chase a potential playoff run without All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, who will miss the rest of 2024 due to a slow recovery from a broken hand. Despite initial hopes for a quicker return, a recent CT scan showed the injury hasn't healed enough for him to resume play. With several key players, including Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, also sidelined, the Braves are battling injuries and currently sit 1.5 games out of the final NL wild-card spot.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The highest passer rating in an NFL season is 122.5, which came in 2011. What player set that record?

Question #2- Connie Hawkins, John Starks, Brad Miller, and Ben Wallace are four of the five undrafted players in NBA history to later become All-Stars. Who is the fifth?

Question #3- The Denver Nuggets have the blemish of scoring the fewest points in an NBA game since 1999, setting the record in 2002 against the Pistons. How many points did Denver score in the performance?

Anyone know what has happened on September 25th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 25th…

1985- MLB legend Rickey Henderson sets a new Yankee record with 75 stolen bases in a season. Henderson would end the season with 80 stolen bases on 90 total attempts, the most by any player that year. He would end his career with 1,406 stolen bases, 468 more than any player in MLB history.

1997- The WNBA announces that it will add teams to Detroit and Washington D.C. The Detroit Shock remained in the league until 2009, they year they rebranded to the Tulsa Shock and eventually the Dallas Wings. Meanwhile, the Washington Mystics have yet to relocate or change their team name since their first season in 1998.

2016- Rory McIlroy wins the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Course. McIlroy finished the final round in a tie at 12-under par with Kevin Chappell and Ryan Moore, eventually defeating both in a playoff. The Northern Irishman would finish the season with 3,120 points in the FedEx Cup standings, and took home $10 million for the season.

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Fred VanVleet

3. 53 points