In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, NHL, and MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-2

Spread Predictions: 0-2

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 2-0

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Puck Line Predictions: 1-1

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 3-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-3-1

Run Line Predictions: 3-2

3-star Predictions: 0-0

There are two more NBA games scheduled to take place this evening. The New York Knicks will travel back to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat in Game 6, and the Golden State Warriors will go to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. That is also Game 6 of the series.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

Model Predicts- Lakers ML, OVER 221, Lakers -2.5

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers will face off in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals on Friday night.

Golden State was in a position that we are not used to seeing them in, entering Game 5 down 3-1 in the series. However, the Warriors pulled through at home and now enter today down 3-2.

This series is eerily similar to the Lakers/Grizzlies series, a series that ended in Game 6 in Los Angeles. Will history repeat itself tonight with a Lakers close out win, or will the defending champs force a Game 7?

Golden State Warriors

The defending NBA Champions once again face elimination, their third elimination game this postseason.

Golden State was weathered the storm when facing elimination so far, going 1-0 in Round 1 and winning in Game 5 of this series. However, trying to go 3-0 in those situations is going to be a tall task.

Winning on the road has been a struggle for the Warriors all season long. Per NBA.com Golden State posted a 11-30 road record during the regular season, with those 11 wins being the fourth fewest in the NBA. That trend has carried over into the postseason, where Golden State is 2-4 on the road.

The main culprit for the regular season road struggles was Golden State’s abysmal 118.4 Defensive Rating. That rating was 10.0 points worse than Golden State’s home Defensive Rating (108.4), proving that this group is an entirely different team on the road.

The Warriors own a 109.8 Defensive Rating in the postseason, a visible sign of improvement on that end. However, that rating spikes to 116.1 on the road in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers

The defense of the Los Angeles Lakers has been the difference maker in the postseason, and it has played a massive role in getting a 3-2 series lead in this series.

According to NBA.com the Lakers own a 106.6 Defensive Rating in 11 postseason games, the best rating among the 16 playoff teams. That rating has risen to 111.2 in this series, but in two home games against the Warriors it has dropped to 100.5.

The reason why that home Defensive Rating has dropped so dramatically is because Los Angeles has eliminated Golden State’s perimeter offense. The Warriors are shooting just 29.4% from behind the arc in this series while playing in Los Angeles, leading to just 99.0 points per game.

That has forced Golden State to score in other ways, which it isn’t very good at. According to TeamRankings the Warriors rank 28th in the NBA in Paint Points per Game (44.8), and that average has essentially remained the same in this series (44.4).

Golden State has to get the three-pointer going if it wants to keep its season alive.

What’s the Play?

The Lakers have proven that they are the better defensive team. They are much larger than Golden State and and have shut down the part of the Warriors offense that generates the most points. As a result, we agree with our model that the Lakers can win and cover the spread here.

Los Angeles took care of business against Golden State in the regular season, goin 3-1 in the season series. The Lakers held the Warriors to shooting 31.5% from three in those four games, so the trend of Golden State struggling to shoot the three against LA isn’t anything new.

As we said earlier everything about this series is the exact same as it was in the Lakers’ Round 1 victory over the Grizzlies. That series ended in Game 6 in Los Angeles with the Lakers winning by 40. We think this series ends tonight as well.

3-star play: Lakers -2.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends

• New York Knicks- 6-4 overall in postseason, 2-3 as the away team

• Miami Heat- 7-3 overall in postseason, 4-0 as the home team

• Golden State Warriors- 6-6 overall in postseason, 2-4 as the away team

• Los Angeles Lakers- 7-4 overall in postseason, 5-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends

• New York Knicks- Over is 3-7 in postseason, 1-4 as the away team with average total of 199.4

• Miami Heat- Over is 8-2 in postseason, 3-1 as the home team with average total of 213.5

• Golden State Warriors- Over is 6-6 in postseason, 2-4 as the away team with average total of 226.2

• Los Angeles Lakers- Over is 5-6 in postseason, 1-4 as the home team with average total of 215.8

Spread Trends

• New York Knicks- 5-5 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 2-3 ATS as the away team

• Miami Heat- 8-2 ATS in postseason, 4-0 ATS as the home team

• Golden State Warriors- 5-7 ATS in postseason, 2-4 ATS as the away team

• Los Angeles Lakers- 7-4 ATS in postseason, 5-0 ATS as the home team

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

• New York Knicks

  • Immanuel Quickley (Doubtful), Jericho Sims (OUT)

• Miami Heat

  • Jimmy Butler (Game Time Decision), Caleb Martin (Game Time Decision), Haywood Highsmith (Game Time Decision), Victor Oladipo (OUT), Tyler Herro (OUT)

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

• Golden State Warriors

  • Andrew Wiggins (Game Time Decision), Andre Iguodala (OUT), Patrick Baldwin (OUT), Ryan Rollins (OuT)

• Los Angeles Lakers

  • LeBron James (Game Time Decision), Anthony Davis (Game Time Decision), Mo Bamba (Game Time Decision)

☘️ Boston forces a Game 7. The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers squared off in Game 6 last night in the Wells Fargo Center. Philadelphia had the lead after three quarters and was looking to punch its ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2001, but the Celtics found a rhythm late and put the game away. Philly scored just 13 points in the fourth quarter, while Jayson Tatum scored 16 of his own in the final frame to help mask what was a horrible night shooting for the All-Star. Game 7 will take place in Boston on Sunday.

🏔 Nuggets end the Suns’ season. The Denver Nuggets have struggled on the road all season long, but you would not have been able to tell if you only watched last night’s game. Denver beat Phoenix by a final score of 125-100, going into halftime up 30 points. Nikola Jokic once again ended the game with a triple double, tallying 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists in 37 minutes of work while four other Nuggets players finished with double figure points. Cameron Payne was the Suns leading scored with 31 points.

🤕 Andrew Wiggins suffers a fractured rib. Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins has reportedly suffered a fractured rib and is questionable for Game 6 against the Lakers. Wiggins has played a big role for the Warriors in the postseason, posting 17.6 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.

There are two NHL games scheduled to take place this evening. The Florida Panthers will travel north of the border to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs, looking to end the series as the Panthers are up 3-1. Edmonton and Vegas will head back to Vegas with the series tied 2-2.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends

• Florida Panthers- 7-4 overall in postseason, 5-1 as the away team, 6-1 in last seven games

• Toronto Maple Leafs- 5-5 overall in postseason, 1-4 as the home team

• Edmonton Oilers- 6-4 overall in postseason, 3-2 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- 6-3 overall in postseason, 3-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends

• Florida Panthers- Under is 5-6 in postseason, 3-3 as the away team with average total of 6.33, 4-0 in last our games

• Toronto Maple Leafs- Under is 6-4 in postseason, 6-0 in last six games with average total of 4.67

• Edmonton Oilers- Under is 5-5 in postseason, 2-3 as the away team with average total of 7.80

• Vegas Golden Knights- Under is 4-5 in postseason, 2-3 as the home team with average total of 6.80

Puck Line Trends

• Florida Panthers- Puck line is 8-3 in postseason, 5-1 as the away team

• Toronto Maple Leafs- Puck line is 2-8 in postseason, 1-4 as the home team

• Edmonton Oilers- Puck line is 4-6 in postseason, 1-4 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 6-3 in postseason, 3-2 as the home team

Florida Panthers @ Toronto Maple Leafs

• Florida Panthers

  • Ryan Lomberg (Day-to-Day)

• Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Ilya Samsonov (OUT), Matthew Knies (OUT)

Edmonton Oilers @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Edmonton Oilers

  • Darnell Nurse (OUT),

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • Laurent Brossoit (Day-to-Day), Alex Pietrangelo (Suspension)

🏒 Alex Pietrangelo receives one-game suspension. Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo was suspended one-game by NHL for slashing Leon Draisaitl in Game 4. The suspension results from a slash that occurred in the late stages of Game 4 after Draisaitl took a shot on an empty net, sending him to the ice and Pietrangelo to the penalty box shortly after.

🌧 Carolina beats New Jersey, advances to Eastern Conference Final. The Carolina Hurricanes have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals after defeating the New Jersey Devils 3-2 in overtime to win the series. Carolina dominated the series from the jump, winning four of the five games and outscoring New Jersey 24-13 in those five matchups. Carolina will await the winner of the Panthers/Maple Leafs series.

⭐️ Stars beat Kraken, take 3-2 series lead. The Dallas Stars are one game closer to advancing to the Western Conference Finals after beating the Seattle Kraken 5-2 last night. Dallas jumped out to an early 2-0 nothing lead, scoring those goals in the first six minutes of the third period. Seattle would make it a 3-2 game by the end of the second period, but Dallas prevailed and defended home ic. Game 6 will take place in Seattle on Saturday.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to some gaps in the early season data, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s games.

Due to time constraints will there will be no MLB analysis. However, we agree with our model that Under 8 in the Cubs/Twins game is a 3-star play