In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, Thursday, July 20, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

📆 Ben Simmons credited with year of service for 2021-22 season. Former Philadelphia 76ers point guard Ben Simmons was credited with a year of service for the 2021-22 season, the same year that the guard held out and was traded to the Brooklyn Nets. The reason the year of service is a big deal is because it can determine the scale of maximum contracts a player is eligible for, as well as other benefits, per Zach Lowe of ESPN. The three-time All-Star has also recouped some money withheld from the hold out, but appears to have left a few other things behind after averaging just 6.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists in 42 games last season.

🚀 Jalen Green chosen for U.S. Select Team. Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green was chosen for the U.S. Select Team on Thursday, joining a long list of young players who will join Team USA next month for its FIBA World Cup training camp. Green joins Cade Cunningham, Keegan Murray, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams on the Select Team, which is coached by Orlando Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley. The U.S. national team, which includes rising stars Tyrese Haliburton and Anthony Edwards, will begin training camp on August 3rd.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, with the first beginning at 2:20 PM ET. You can see all of today’s predictions below.

St. Louis Cardinas @ Chicago Cubs

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, OVER 8.5, Cardinals +1.5

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will square off in Game 2 of a four-game series on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

Game 1 of this classic NL Central rivalry was rather lopsided, with the Cardinals winning 7-2. The victory was the sixth in a row for St. Louis, making them one of the hottest teams in baseball after the All-Star break.

The loss snapped a two-game win streak for Chicago, who enters today’s matchup with a 45-51 record and in third place in the NL Central.

St. Louis has been red hot over the last week, but our model likes Justin Steele and the Cubs to get the job done at home this afternoon. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will the Cardinals extend their win streak to seven?

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have been nothing short of spectacular since returning from the All-Star break on July 15th. The Cardinals are 6-1 since that date, and as previously mentioned have won six consecutive games.

St. Louis can thank its offense for the sudden surge of wins. FanGraphs has the Cardinals ranked first in the major leagues in wRC+ (153) since July 15th, simultaneously posting the second-best BABIP (.366).

However, Jack Flaherty (7-5 record, 4.29 ERA) will get the start on the mound today for St. Louis, which could make things a little dicey for one of the hottest teams in baseball.

Flaherty owns a stellar 1.45 ERA in July, ranking him tenth among starting pitchers this month. However, his three starts have come against the Nationals, Marlins, and Yankees, three teams that rank towards the middle or bottom of the pack in wRC+ and OPS in July.

Despite the recent success, Flaherty still owns a 4.29 ERA against a 4.61 xERA, per Baseball Savant, both of which are concerning. One reason for that is because of his lack of control, ranking in the bottom 12% of the majors in walk rate (11.8%), and low strikeout rate (22.2%).

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs haven’t found themselves in the win column as often as their division rival since the All-Star break, but Chicago has still put up some impressive numbers over the last week.

The Cubs have crushed right-handed pitchers since July 14th, posting an MLB-best 174 wRC+ since that date against righties. That coincides with a .413 BABIP and 1.001 OPS, two more categories that Chicago ranks first in.

Additionally, the Cubs will have the advantage on the mound today with Justin Steele (9-3 record, 2.96 ERA), giving Chicago another edge.

Steele has been all over the place in the last couple starts. The Red Sox put up 10 hits and six runs on him in his most recent appearance, but his ERA comes in at 3.17 across his last six starts. That shows he has been far more stable on the mound than he was against Boston.

The left-hander doesn’t strike many batters out (22.0% strikeout rate), but his ability to generate soft contact is among the league’s best. Baseball Savant ranks Steele in the 92nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity Allowed and 86th percentile in Hard Hit rate. Steele also owns a 5.1% walk rate this season, ranking him in the top 9% of the MLB.

What’s the Play?

It is tough to bet against the hottest team in baseball. However, we agree with our model that there is value on Steele and the Cubs this afternoon.

Chicago is just 3-4 since returning from the All-Star break, but it is hard to ignore the success the Cubs have had against right-handed pitchers in that time, which Jack Flaherty is. Flaherty’s lack of control is also concern against the Cubs, a team that has shown patience at the plate by generating the fifth-best walk rate (10.1%) since July 14th.

Chicago has the offensive firepower in this kind of scenario to go blow for blow with a hot Cardinals offense, and Justin Steele gives the Cubs an edge on the mound. Our model thinks the Cubs’ money line should be closer to -150, so we’ll gladly take them at -130.

3-star play: Cubs ML (-130)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Miami Marlins- 53-45 overall this season, 30-18 as the home team

• San Francisco Giants- 54-43 overall this season, 28-21 as the away team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 54-43 overall this season, 28-19 as the away team, 16-13 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Cubs- Over is 50-42-4 this season, 28-19-3 as the home team

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 53-40-3 this season, 30-15-1 as the home team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 49-40-8 this season, 28-17-6 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 62-36 overall this season, 30-21 as the home team

• Houston Astros- Run line is 6-1 as a favorite against the Oakland Athletics this season

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

☀️ Blake Snell wants to stay in San Diego despite trade rumors. Several players are starting to be tossed into trade rumors with the August 1st trade deadline just around the corner, and now San Diego Padres ace Blake Snell finds himself potentially on the trading block. Snell is scheduled to be a free agent for the first time in his career following the 2023 season, the main reason why trade rumors are beginning to surround the 30-year-old. The 2018 AL Cy Young award winner is in the midst of another Cy Young worthy season, posting a 2.67 ERA and 143 strikeouts across 108 innings, but has expressed his desires to stay in sunny San Diego for the remainder of the season.

💎 George Kirby pitches a gem in shutout win against Twins. Seattle Mariners pitcher George Kirby dominated on the mound on Thursday in Seattle’s 5-0 win over the Minnesota Twins. Kirby matched his career high with 10 strikeouts on Thursday, simultaneously allowing just four hits and zero walks in 7.0 innings. The 25-year-old now owns a 9-8 record and 3.23 ERA in just under 120 innings following the performance.

🤕 Yankees place Donaldson on 60-day IL. The New York Yankees have placed third baseman Josh Donaldson on the 60-day injured list on Thursday, meaning that he cannot play until at least September 14th. Donaldson was originally placed on the 10-day IL after injuring his calf last Saturday in New York’s 6-3 win over the Colorado Rockies, but the injury appears to be worse than originally thought. The three-time All-Star and former AL MVP is batting just .142 this season, and was previously on the IL from April 5th to June 2nd.

💰 Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes close to extension. The Carolina Hurricanes and star center Sebastian Aho are reportedly close to signing an extension, per Tom Gulitti of NHL.com. Aho, who has been eligible for an extension since July 1st, is entering the final season of a five-year, $42.3 million contract. The 25-year-old, who collected 36 goals and 31 assists in 75 games during the 2022-23 season, is likely to see a big payday after leading the Hurricanes in goals scored for six consecutive years

🙌 NFL approves sale of the Washington Commanders. The National Football League officially approved the long-awaited sale of the Washington Commanders franchise on Thursday. The team was purchased for $6.05 billion by an ownership group that is led by Philadelphia 76ers and New Jersey Devils owner Josh Harris, a group that also includes Los Angeles Lakers legend Magic Johnson. The sale broke the record for the most expensive acquisition of a sports franchise in the U.S., surpassing the $4.65 billion that was paid for the Denver Broncos in 2022.

💭 Lane Kiffin gives his thoughts on the transfer portal and NIL. Ole Miss head football coach Lane Kiffin appears to have some animosity towards the transfer portal and the NCAA’s NIL rules, calling the situation a “disaster for college football” on Thursday. His main concern was the lack of restrictions around the two transfer portal windows, which allegedly doesn’t exist in any other sport. Kiffin, who admitted that he isn’t complaining since Ole Miss has taken advantage of the lack of restrictions, further stated that the “massive overhauls of rosters every year really is not in the best interest of college football.”

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2012. We’ve gathered the college logos of the top-six picks of the 2012 NBA Draft, and it is your job to name all six players.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 21st…

1973- Atlanta Braves legend Hank Aaron hits a home run off Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Ken Brett, giving the slugger his 700th career home run. The homer, a two-run shot, came in the bottom of the third inning, giving Atlanta a 4-2 lead in the early stages of the game. However, Philadelphia would go on to spoil the milestone, stringing together a comeback victory to win 8-4. Aaron ended his career with 755 home runs, which was the most in MLB history until Barry Bonds surpassed him on August 7th, 2007.

1996- NHL legend Wayne Gretzky signs a two-year contract with the New York Rangers. The contract came after Gretzky played for the Los Angeles Kings from 1988-1996 and a small stint with the St. Louis Blues to end the 1996 season. Gretzky’s impact was immediate in New York, leading the Rangers to the Eastern Conference Finals in 1997, where they would eventually lose in five games to the Philadelphia Flyers. He would retire following the 1999 season, ending a career in which he collected 894 goals and 1,963 assists, both of which rank first in NHL history.

2013- Phil Mickelson wins the British Open, defeating Swedish golfer Henrik Stenson by three strokes. Mickelson opened the tournament with a 2-under par round, good enough to be tied for ninth after 18 holes. However, he followed that up with a 3-over par round on Friday, causing him to plummet in the standings before shooting 4-under across the final 36 holes to win the event. The win was Mickelson’s sixth major victory of his career and the first since he won the Masters in 2010.

1. Anthony Davis

2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

3. Bradley Beal

4. Dion Waiters

5. Thomas Robinson

6. Damian Lillard