In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 4-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-4

Run Line Predictions: 3-3

Featured Matchup: 0-1

🤕 Packers place Bakhtiari on IR. Green Bay Packers' All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari has been placed on injured reserve after a nearly three-year recovery from his torn left ACL faced another setback. Though he was already ruled out of the upcoming game against the Lions, Bakhtiari is now set to miss at least three more games. Bakhtiari had initially suffered the knee injury in practice on December 31, 2020, and has since undergone three surgeries, causing him to miss 24 out of 47 regular-season games since the start of the 2021 season.

🐬 Jaylen Waddle clears concussion protocol. Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has been given the green light to return to play after clearing the concussion protocol. Waddle, who missed the Dolphins' Week 3 victory over the Denver Broncos due to the protocol, will be back on the field for their Week 4 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Despite Waddle's absence in the previous game, the Dolphins' high-powered offense achieved a franchise-record 70 points while accumulating 700 yards.

🦁 Lions dominate Packers on TNF. The Detroit Lions handed Jordan Love a loss in his first prime-time start, defeating the Green Bay Packers 34-20. The Lions dominated the first half, leading 27-3 at halftime, and held off the Packers in the second half with a game-sealing drive, securing their fourth straight win over Green Bay. Jared Goff had a solid performance for Detroit, aided by a strong pass rush and a potent rushing attack led by David Montgomery, while the Packers struggled with an outmanned offensive line and a lackluster running game, leading to a disappointing loss.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 13 of today’s matchups.

Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals

Model Predicts- Reds ML, UNDER 9, Cardinals +1.5

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will meet for the final three-game series of the season for both teams beginning on Friday night.

St. Louis has nothing left to fight for, recording its 90th loss of the season in 3-0 defeat against the Brewers yesterday. Meanwhile, Cincinnati still has a shot at the final NL wild card spot if everything breaks its way this weekend.

Neither one of these teams has performed well as of late, but our model sees some value on backing the Reds tonight. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds

• Have been best offense in MLB over last five games

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (137), 9th in BABIP (.316), and 1st in OPS (.902)

  • 11 homers in that five-game span

• Getting on base at extremely high-clip

  • .373 on base % in last 5 games- highest mark in MLB

  • Seeing ball well- 12.9% walk rate to 23.9% strikeout rate

• Brandon Williamson (4-5 record, 4.54 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Hasn’t been impressive on mound this year

    • Owns 20.6% strikeout rate and only 37.7% ground ball rate

    • Solid control though- 7.9% walk rate

St. Louis Cardinals

• Picked up 90th loss of season yesterday- most since 1990

• 3-7 in last 10 games. Offense is biggest reason why

  • 59 wRC+, .248 BABIP, and .565 OPS

  • Also own .281 on base % in that time, further showing struggles at plate

• Struggling even more against lefties in last 10 games, which they will face today

  • 51 wRC+, .260 BABIP, and .502 OPS in those situations

• Jake Woodford (2-2 record, 5.09 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Has mostly been used as opener recently- hasn’t gone longer than 3.2 innings since April

  • Constantly allowing contact- Ranks in bottom 2% of MLB in strikeout rate (13.8%) and bottom 1% in whiff rate (16.8%)

  • Also ranks in bottom 1% in Hard Hit rate (49.7%)

What’s the Play?

The Cardinals would like more than anything else for this season to end, while the Reds still have a chance to sneak into the postseason. Additionally, Cincinnati has a rhythm at the plate that we haven’t seen in quite some time, so we’ll back the Reds on the money line here.

Williamson is a wild card on the mound, but we know that Wood ford is going to surrender contact in bunches. Woodford also owns a 10.0% walk rate, so the Reds, who own the highest on base % in the MLB over the last 5 games, shouldn’t have any issues putting themselves in a position to score.

Our model thinks the Reds should be favored with odds around -130, and you can grab them on various books for -110 right now.

The Play: Reds ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 100-59 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games

• Houston Astros- 87-72 overall this season, 21-12 as a road underdog

• Seattle Mariners- 86-73 overall this season, 31-18 against division opponents (Play AL West rival Texas today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 86-68-5 this season, 28-20-1 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Toronto today)

• Milwaukee Brewers- Under is 82-71-6 this season, 39-37-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Tigers- Run line is 85-74 overall this season, 39-39 as the home team

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😬 Cardinals record 90th loss of season. Garrett Mitchell returned to the big leagues after a long absence, doubling, drawing two walks, and scoring in his first game since April, helping the Milwaukee Brewers secure a 3-0 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. Corbin Burnes, Julio Teheran, and Ethan Small combined for a six-hit shutout, with Burnes delivering an impressive performance in his final tune-up before the postseason. The Brewers reached 90 wins for the third time in six seasons, while the Cardinals faced their first 90-loss season since 1990 and were on track to finish last for only the second time since 1918.

💪 Orioles clinch AL East, reach 100 wins. The Baltimore Orioles celebrated their hard-fought AL East division championship with a 2-0 victory over the Boston Red Sox. Anthony Santander's home run provided an early lead, while DL Hall's pivotal performance in the sixth inning helped secure the win. The Orioles, who reached 100 wins for the first time since 1980, overcame a challenging divisional race and will enter the postseason as the top seed in the American League.

🎁 Harper gets ejected, gives lucky fan souvenir. During the Philadelphia Phillies' 3-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park, Bryce Harper's frustration led to an unexpected souvenir for a 10-year-old fan. After a disputed call by third-base umpire Ángel Hernández, Harper vehemently argued and was eventually ejected from the game, but not before tossing his helmet into the stands, where it was caught by young Hayden Dorfman. Despite the Phillies' recent winning streak and Harper's ejection, the Pirates held on for a one-run victory, while Harper signed the helmet for the lucky young fan who caught it.

🦌 Bucks now NBA Finals favorites following Lillard trade. The Milwaukee Bucks have surged to become the leading favorites to capture the NBA championship, following reports of their acquisition of superstar guard Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers. This development significantly impacted the odds at U.S. sportsbooks, with the Bucks jumping ahead of the defending champions, the Denver Nuggets, and claiming the top spot in Caesars Sportsbook's championship odds. Milwaukee was listed at +375 after news of the trade broke, with the Nuggets at +425, followed by the Boston Celtics (+500).

⛳️Ryder Cup set to begin on Friday. The 2023 Ryder Cup is on the brink of commencing, with the Day 1 pairings and tee times finally unveiled. One striking development is that the long-established pairing of Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas will not be part of the opening foursomes session, where they had previously excelled. Meanwhile, Europe is throwing out the big guns right away, with Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton leading while Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood will conclude the session.

⚡️Andrei Vasilevskiy to miss two months. Tampa Bay Lightning's star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is set to miss the initial two months of the regular NHL season following a successful back surgery. Lightning GM Julien BriseBois revealed that Vasilevskiy had informed the team of his back issue in August but initially improved after receiving an injection. However, discomfort resurfaced during the team's first practice, leading to the lumbar disc herniation diagnosis and his subsequent absence.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is the youngest player to score 70 or more points in a single NBA game?

Question #2- Who was the first player selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, and which team selected that player?

Question #3- Before suiting up for the Philadelphia Phillies, Nick Castellanos played for three additional two teams. Two of those teams were the Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds, but what was the third team?

Anyone know what has happened on September 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 29th…

1976- Tommy LaSorda replaces Walter Alston as the Los Angeles Dodgers manager. He posted 1,599 wins in his 21-tear managerial record, ranking him 22nd on the all-time list. LaSorda is also responsible for winning two of the Dodgers’ World Series titles while the team was on the West Coast, winning the fall classic in 1981 and 1988.

1996- The Houston Astros retire Nolan Ryan’s #34 just three seasons after his retirement from baseball. Ryan took the mound for the Angels from 1980-1988, earning two All-Star selections and becoming the National League’s ERA leader twice. He would retire with 324 wins, a 3.19 career ERA, and 5,714 strikeouts.

2005- The Chicago White Sox clinch their first division title since 2000. What made the occasion special wasn’t the fact that Chicago won the division, but the fact that the White Sox became just the 10th team in MLB history to be in first place on every day of the season. Chicago won 99 games during the 2005 season, and eventually became the World Series champions.

1. Devin Booker

2. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

3. Chicago Cubs