In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-2

Over/Under Predictions: 4-3

Run Line Predictions: 1-6

3-star Predictions: 1-0

🔄 Jordan Poole sent to Washington in exchange for Chris Paul. New Golden State Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. said earlier this week that he wants to keep Jordan Poole with the franchise for “at least the next four years”. However, as it turns out, Poole wouldn’t even be a member of the Warriors for the next four days, being sent to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Chris Paul. Joining Poole on his cross-country trip will be Ryan Rollins and three draft picks, a decent haul for an aging point guard. Poole is coming off a season in which he averaged 20.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, while Chris Paul had the worst season of his career from a scoring standpoint, averaging 13.9 points per game.

☘️ Kristaps Porzingis sent to Boston in a three-team deal. We somehow missed this in yesterday’s newsletter, but we would still consider it to be newsworthy even one day later. The Boston Celtics have finalized a deal that would give last season’s Eastern Conference No.2 seed Kristaps Porzingis, sending Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies in the process. The third team in the trade, the Washington Wizards, will receive Tyus Jones from Memphis and Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala from Boston. The trade was the first of many that came about as draft night approached, giving us quite the exciting start to the NBA offseason.

🤝 A plethora of talent entered the NBA last night. The 2023 NBA Draft was held on Thursday night in Brooklyn, New York, bringing plenty of young and exciting talent to basketball’s biggest stage. Unsurprisingly, French basketball star Victor Wembanyama was selected first overall by the San Antonio Spurs, followed shortly after with the selections of Brandon Miller by the Charlotte Hornets and Scoot Henderson by the Portland Trail Blazers. 58 players in total were drafted last night, which is just the beginning for what will hopefully be a successful career at the professional level.

There are 14 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout Friday evening. However, due to some gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 11 of tonight’s matchups.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

Model Predicts- Marlins ML, OVER 7.5, Pirates +1.5

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins will face off in the second game of a four-game series on Friday night in South Beach.

Pittsburgh was in control for the majority of last night’s game, that is until Miami scored five runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to take a 6-4 lead and eventually win the game. The loss was a brutal one for the Pirates, and was the team’s tenth consecutive defeat.

Pittsburgh and Miami are trending in opposite directions as we approach the halfway point of the 2023 season, and our model likes the Marlins to win tonight and keep pushing the Pirates further down the standings. Will we see that prediction come true, or will we see the Pirates pick themselves up after a disappointing loss?

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the midst of a 10-game losing streak, the longest active losing streak in the majors. Once at the top of the NL Central, Pittsburgh now finds itself in fourth place in the division with a 34-40 record.

The losing streak began back on June 13th with an 11-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs. That defeat would set the tone for a losing stretch that has seen the Pirates score an average of just 2.4 runs per game, resulting in a 53 wRC+, according to Fangraphs. That wRC+ ranks Pittsburgh last in the MLB.

The Pirates also own a .211 BABIP and a 24.6% strikeout rate in the last ten games, a significant decline from their .290 BABIP and 22.4% strikeout rate before this losing streak began. Simply put, this is the worst offense in the majors at the moment by a long shot.

To make matters worse, things have not been any better for Pittsburgh on the mound. Fangraphs has the Pirates listed with a 6.72 Team ERA and 4.55 xFIP in the last 10 games, signs of a pitching staff that is in shambles. Luis Ortiz (1-3 record, 4.30 ERA) will take the mound as today’s starter and try to clean things up, but that is going to be a tough task.

The biggest issue facing Ortiz is that he gets ht around like there is no tomorrow. Per Baseball Savant, the 24-year-old owns a .296 xBA, 49.2% Hard Hit rate, and 92.0 mph Average Exit Velocity Allowed. He ranks in the bottom 5% of the majors in all three categories, and his 12.7% Barrel rate could lead to his demise this evening.

Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins are one of the more impressive teams in the 2023 season, entering today with a 43-33 record and 6.0 games back of the Braves in the NL East.

However, many surface level metrics show that Miami isn’t the most overpowering offense in the MLB, which makes some people question how exactly this team has gotten to this point.

According to TeamRankings, Miami ranks 25th in the majors in runs per game with 4.07 and has just 70 total home runs this season. That doesn’t mean that the Marlins don’t get on base though. In fact, Miami ranks eighth in hits per game this season, led by second baseman Luis Arraez batting .397.

The Marlins only have one player on the roster with double-digit home runs, and that is Jorge Soler (21). However, this team gets on base at a high clip, and that will be huge for tonight’s matchup against Ortiz.

Jesús Luzardo (6-5 record, 4.09 ERA) will get the start on the mound for Miami. He’s been all over the place this season, alternating between allowing 5-6 earned runs or just 1-2 across his last six starts. That is largely due to the fact that opposing hitters size Luzardo up rather easily, as evidenced by his 12.2% Barrel rate.

What’s the Play?

The Pirates’ recent struggles make them nearly impossible to bet on, and Miami’s lack of home run hitters makes the over rather unappealing here. However, we agree with our model that the over is a solid play in this matchup, as both starting pitchers play into the opposing team’s strengths.

The Pirates can’t do anything at the plate right now, but Luzardo gives them a chance to score some runs. Per ESPN, Pittsburgh is batting .260 with a .752 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, which Luzardo is. That is much better when compared to the Pirates’ splits against righties (.230 avg., .692 OPS), and Luzardo’s vulnerability to being sized him could lead to some Pirates runs tonight.

The Marlins should also have no problems jumping on Ortiz. As we mentioned earlier, Miami is not going to beat you with the long ball, but its ability to simply make contact at a high clip puts the Marlins in a great spot against Ortiz, who comes into today with a 6.80 xERA and in the bottom 8% of the majors in strikeout rate (15.1%).

Last night we saw ten runs scored between these two teams, with seven coming in the eighth inning alone. We expect to see the scoring balance out a bit tonight, but that should still allow for a high-scoring affair.

3-star play: Over 7.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 52-26 overall this season, 32-9 as the home team

• Cleveland Guardians- 36-38 overall this season, winners of last four games

• Boston Red Sox- 39-37 overall this season, have won six of the last eight games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 43-31-4 this season, 27-13-1 as the home team

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 37-36-4 this season, 22-15-2 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 43-28-3 this season, 24-11-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Detroit Tigers- Run line is 39-34 overall this season, 14-15 as a home underdog

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 46-30 overall this season, 13-5 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report on MLB.com.

🪑 Wander Franco benched for two games. Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco has been benched for two games following what the team is calling “clubhouse issues”, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The issues that have Franco glued to the bench result from how he handles his frustrations, which Rays manager Kevin Cash has said leads him to being a bad teammate. The first game of Franco’s hiatus was last night’s 6-5 loss to the Kansas City Royals, and he will also miss tonight’s matchup before returning to the lineup on Saturday. The 22-year-old is having a great 2023 season, batting .287 with eight home runs and 34 RBIs.

💥 Padres CRUSH Giants, end San Francisco’s winning streak at 10 games. The San Francisco Giants entered Thursday riding a 10-game win streak, the second longest win streak in baseball behind the Cincinnati Reds. However, the Giants’ NL West rival, the San Diego Padres, put a stop to the win streak once and for all with a dominant 10-0 victory. All ten of San Diego’s runs were scored in the first four innings, highlighted by Gary Sanchez, Manny Machado, and Ha-Seong Kim all going yard in the game. Blake Snell also pitched a gem on the mound, striking out 11 batters and allowing just three hits in 6.0 innings.

👋 Nationals manager Dave Martinez gets ejected following temper tantrum. The Washington Nationals are in the midst of a frustrating stretch of baseball, losing eight of the last ten games. That frustration appeared to boil over in yesterday’s 5-3 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, especially for Nationals manager Dave Martinez. Martinez came out of the dugout in the fifth inning and exchanged words with home plate umpire Doug Eddings, only to then dust off and lay down behind home plate.

🤕 Chuck Clark to miss 2023 season with torn ACL. New York Jets safety Chuck Clark will reportedly miss the upcoming NFL season due to a torn ACL, per Adam Schefter. Clark suffered the ACL injury in practice earlier this month, resulting in the Jets signing former Green Bay Packers safety Adrian Amos shortly afterwards. Clark had spent the last six seasons with the Baltimore Ravens before being traded to the Jets in March, posting a team-high 101 tackles last season.

⛳️ Denny McCarthy leads after Round 1 of the Travelers Championship. American golfer Denny McCarthy came out of the gates red hot to begin the Travelers Championship on Thursday, tallying five birdies on the first six holes on his way to shooting a 10-under par round. McCarthy’s performance puts him two strokes ahead of Adam Scott and Keegan Bradley after 18 holes, and he was just one stroke away from breaking 60. Plenty more golfers had a great day on the links in addition to McCarthy, with eight golfers shooting 65 or better and 91 breaking par.

💰 Dan Hurley agrees to new contract with UCONN. Dan Hurley and the University of Connecticut have reportedly agreed to a new contract on Friday, keeping Hurley with the program for the next six years and paying him $31.5 million. Hurley’s new contract will keep him with the Huskies through the 2028-29 season, and it includes incentives that are based on athletic and academic success, per Adrian Wojnarowski. Hurley has been with the program since 2018, posting a 104-55 record and most recently leading Connecticut to a national championship in 2023.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Only four players in NBA history have produced a quadruple double, with one of those players accomplishing the elusive stat line twice in the same month. Who was that player?

Question #2- Ed Reed was selected with the 24th overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft, going on to play a majority of his career with the Baltimore Ravens. Reed did some incredible things with Baltimore, including setting the NFL record for the longest interception return. How many yards was that return?

Question #3- No-hitters only come around a handful of times per season, but none have been more impressive than a Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher throwing a no-no while under the influence of LSD. Who was that pitcher?

Anyone know what has happened on June 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 23rd…

1971- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Rick Wise no-hits the Cincinnati Reds and hits two home runs in a 4-0 victory. The two home runs were quite the surprise, but certainly no fluke. Wise had hit two home runs in one additional game that season, and he ended his career with 15 total dingers. After his playing days Wise would go on to have several coaching stints in the minors before officially retiring from baseball in 2008.

2003- Barry Bonds steals his 500th base against the Los Angeles Dodgers, becoming the first player in MLB history to post 500 home runs and 500 steals in their career. Bonds still stands alone on that list to this day, with the next closest player being Willie Mays with 338 stolen bases. Bonds would end his career with 514 steals to go along with 762 home runs, the most home runs by a player in MLB history.

2005- The San Antonio Spurs defeat the Detroit Pistons 81-74 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, giving San Antonio its third title in franchise history. Both San Antonio and Detroit had entered the postseason as the No.2 seed in their respective conference, with the Spurs posting a 59-23 record compared to Detroit’s record of 54-28. Tim Duncan was named Finals MVP for the third time in his career, averaging 20.6 points, 14.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 2.1 blocks on his way to preventing the Pistons from becoming back-to-back NBA Finals winners.

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1. Hakeem Olajuwon

2. 107 yards

3. Dock Ellis