In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-4

Over/Under Predictions: 2-5

Run Line Predictions: 4-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

🍎 Cardinals send Isaiah Simmons to Big Apple. The Arizona Cardinals have parted ways with their 2020 first-round pick, Isaiah Simmons, who transitioned to a safety role, by trading him to the New York Giants for a 2024 seventh-round draft pick. The decision follows Simmons' switch to defensive back and his limited preseason performance under new coaching. The Cardinals, now under general manager Monti Ossenfort, declined to exercise Simmons' fifth-year option earlier this year, while his dynamic position shifts in his initial seasons posed challenges for consistent play.

🤕 Another Broncos receiver picks up an injury. The Denver Broncos have faced a series of unfortunate injuries affecting their wide receivers this summer, with Jerry Jeudy becoming the latest casualty. Jeudy sustained a right hamstring injury during a joint practice with the Los Angeles Rams, resulting in Jeudy getting carted off the field. Expected to miss several weeks, Jeudy's absence adds to the team's wide receiver woes, following Tim Patrick's season-ending Achilles injury, KJ Hamler's heart ailment diagnosis, and Jalen Virgil's knee injury.

💪 Jamal Adams is BACK, will likely be ready to play Week 1. The Seattle Seahawks have taken a significant step in the recovery of safety Jamal Adams by removing him from the physically unable to perform list following his surgery to mend a torn quad tendon. Although Adams isn't yet ready to fully practice, his activation permits his participation in less intense morning walk-through sessions. Cornerback Tariq Woolen and linebacker Jordyn Brooks were also eased back into practice similarly, and all three players are expected to be ready for the season opener against the Los Angeles Rams.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Colorado Rockies @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 9, Orioles -1.5

The Colorado Rockies and Baltimore Orioles will begin a three-game series on Friday night in Baltimore.

Colorado enters tonight’s matchup at 48-79, and its struggles have continued recently as the team is 3-7 across its last ten games and has last four straight. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 79-48 overall and has won seven of its last ten.

The talent gap in this matchup is significant, a major reason why our model likes the Orioles to win by several runs in a high-scoring affair. Let’s dive into why that is, and see where our model thinks the most value lies in Game 1.

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are once again in the midst of another sub .500 season, which will be the team’s fifth straight after finishing 91-72 in 2018.

Those struggles have been amplified over the last two or so weeks, with Colorado posting a 3-7 record in its last ten games. However, that record doesn’t show how good the Rockies have been in that time, especially at the plate.

According to FanGraphs, Colorado has posted a 117 wRC+ in its last ten games, the tenth-best mark in the majors. That number has come about due to the Rockies’ surge in power, betting 11 baseballs over the wall in that same span. Colorado is getting the job done in other ways too though, as evidenced by its .357 BABIP, which ranks in the top-five of the MLB.

This team’s numbers over the last ten games improved even more when you break down its numbers against left-handed pitching, which it has the fortune of facing today with Cole Irvin. Colorado’s wRC+ and BABIP across the last ten games rise to 119 and.381 against lefties, respectively, with the Rockies also posting a stellar .841 OPS.

Kyle Freeland (5-13 record, 5.02 ERA) will get the start tonight for Colorado. He owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his last five starts, which results from ranking in the bottom 4% of the MLB in Strikeout rate and Whiff rate.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles earned a crucial series win over the Toronto Blue Jays after last night’s 5-3 victory, allowing the O’s to maintain their two-game lead in the AL East.

Baltimore outscored their division rival 12-6 in three games, a run differential that we’ve seen quite often from this team in 2023, and one that we could easily see again today.

Just like Colorado, Baltimore’s offense has been red hot over the last ten games, posting a 118 wRC+ and .333 BABIP in that stretch, per FanGraphs. That has enabled the Orioles to score 5.7 runs per game in that time, the sixth-most in the majors.

Baltimore will likely need every ounce of that offense tonight in order to extend their winning streak to three, because Cole Irvin (1-3 record, 4.66 ERA) is certainly capable of giving up some runs.

To Irvin’s credit, the left-hander has allowed just one earned run in his last 14.0 innings, a sign that he has regained his composure on the mound. However, Irvin’s 6.03 xERA still comes in miles above his season ERA, indicating that he is due for regression.

What’s the Play?

The over is always in play when two of the hottest offenses in the MLB collide, and our model thinks that is the play with the most value in tonight’s matchup.

Kyle Freeland is no stranger to the over, with his last five starts seeing an average total of 12.4 runs per game. As previously mentioned, a lot of that is due to his inability to generate swings and misses, which is certainly a problem today against an Orioles team that owns a 135 wRC+ and .866 OPS against lefties in their last ten games.

Neither of tonight’s starting pitchers has good stuff on the mound. We’ll back both offenses to pile on the runs here, just like our model predicts.

The Play: Over 9 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 78-51 overall this season, 43-22 as the home team, 4-0 in last four games

• Chicago Cubs- 67-60 overall this season, 22-14 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival Pittsburgh tonight)

• Cincinnati Reds- 67-62 overall this season, 30-26 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 63-55-9 this season, 21-20-4 as a home favorite

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 74-51-3 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 71-51-6 this season, 34-21-4 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 79-48 overall this season, 35-30 when favored to win

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 82-47 overall this season, 40-16 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

👏 Stephen Strasburg calls it a career. Stephen Strasburg, the star pitcher for the Washington Nationals, has announced his retirement, concluding a career marked by being the top draft pick, earning the 2019 World Series MVP title, and facing setbacks due to injuries. The decision was confirmed by a source and reported by The Washington Post, with an official statement expected on September 9. Strasburg, known for his exceptional pitching skills and work ethic, faced challenges with injuries, including surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite a promising start, his career saw limited recent activity, culminating in his retirement at the age of 35.

🪓 Red Sox bring the Boston Massacre to Houston. The Boston Red Sox dominated the Houston Astros with a crushing 17-1 victory, a game that Alex Verdugo began with a leadoff homer and rookie Wilyer Abreu achieved his first major league home run among four hits. The 16-run margin leaves quite the stain on an Astros team that is fighting for first in the AL West, tied for the most lopsided loss in the team's history. Boston's relentless performance produced a season-high of 17 runs and 24 hits, coupled with a noteworthy streak of hitting at least one home run in 13 consecutive games, the team's longest such stretch since 2019.

🤕 Reds place Joey Votto on IL. Cincinnati Reds' veteran first baseman Joey Votto has been put on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder discomfort, raising concerns ahead of a crucial four-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Votto, who recently turned 40, had previously made a delayed season debut on June 19 after undergoing left shoulder surgery in August 2022. Reds' manager David Bell remains optimistic about the injury's duration, expressing hope that Votto can return soon to contribute to the team's efforts in securing one of the National League's wild-card spots.

⛳️ Morikawa makes statement at TOUR Championship. Collin Morikawa made a powerful statement at the Tour Championship on Thursday, carding a remarkable 9-under 61 in the opening round at East Lake Golf Club. Morikawa shares the lead at 10-under alongside Keegan Bradley and Viktor Hovland, with the former shooting 7-under par for the day. Despite his strong performance, Scottie Scheffler, the top-seeded player, struggled with a triple-bogey and ended the day 1 stroke behind the leaders.

🦌 Is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee up in the air? Giannis Antetokounmpo, the star of the Milwaukee Bucks, revealed in an interview with The New York Times that he won't be pursuing a contract extension when he becomes eligible next month. He expressed his intent to sign an extension only when he's assured that the organization is committed to pursuing championships. While Giannis emphasized his desire to remain with the Bucks for his entire career, he highlighted the priority of championship victories, indicating that he values winning titles above staying with one team for an extended period.

💰 Oilers keep Evan Bouchard. The Edmonton Oilers have secured defenseman Evan Bouchard, a restricted free agent, by re-signing him to a two-year contract valued at $7.8 million, equating to a $3.9 million annual salary cap hit over the next two seasons. Bouchard, who had outstanding performance in the previous season with 8 goals and 32 assists in 82 games, followed by a strong playoff performance, emerged as a vital player for the team. His responsibilities included leading the power play and contributing to the team's aspirations for a successful Stanley Cup run in the upcoming season, making his new deal a key step for the Oilers.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- In which year did the "Miracle on Ice" occur, when the United States ice hockey team achieved a historic upset victory over the heavily favored Soviet Union team during the Winter Olympics?

Question #2- Who is the only player in NBA history to have won MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Finals MVP awards in the same season?

Question #3- The top-two spots on the SEC’s all-time receiving yards list belong to two Philadelphia Eagles players, one current and one former. Can you name both players?

Anyone know what has happened on August 25th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 25th…

1968- Arthur Ashe becomes first African American to win a U.S. singles championship. Ashe would also become the first black man to be selected to the United States Davis Cup team, and the only African American to win singles titles at Wimbledon, the U.S. Open, and the Australian Open. Ashe would retire from tennis in 1980, and passed away 13 years later in 1993.

1986- Oakland Athletics first baseman Mark McGwire hits his first major league home run in an 8-4 victory over the Detroit Tigers. McGwire would hit two more homers by the end of his 18-game MLB stint, but followed that up with 49 homers in 1987 in what was his first full season in the major leagues. That would be the catalyst for what later became one of the greatest power-hitting careers the MLB has ever seen, with McGwire ending his 16-year career with 583 home runs.

2020- Chicago White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito throws a no-hitter in a 4-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It was the first no-hitter by a White Sox pitcher since Philip Humber’s perfect game in 2012, on in which Giolito struck out 13 batters. It was also the 19th no-hitter in Chicago’s franchise history, at the time the second-most in the MLB.

1. 1980

2. Hakeen Olajuwon

3. DeVonta Smith and Jordan Matthews