In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-9

Over/Under Predictions: 8-4

Run Line Predictions: 9-3

3-star Predictions: 0-1

✈️ Aaron Rodgers restructures deal with Jets. The New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers agreed to restructure the four-time NFL MVPs contract on Wednesday, with Rodgers signing a two-year, $75-million contract that is fully guaranteed. Per Tom Pelissero, Rodgers had nearly $110 million remaining on his deal from Green Bay, but chose to restructure the contract in hopes of winning another Super Bowl. The ten-time Pro Bowl selection was traded to New York back in April, a move that has Jets fans are hoping will jump start the franchise back to its winning ways.

💰 Andrew Thomas signs MASSIVE deal with Giants. New York Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas will be staying in New York for quite awhile after signing a five-year $117.5 million extension on Wednesday. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Thomas’ extension includes $67 million that is fully guaranteed, which is an NFL record for an offensive lineman. The contract’s $23.5 million annual value is also the second-highest among offensive lineman in league history. The former Georgia Bulldog is coming off a season in which he was a second-team All-Pro, and will now be tasked with keeping Daniel Jones upright through the 2029 season.

🐻 Bears lockdown Cole Kmet for additional four years. The Chicago Bears are keeping tight end Cole Kmet in the Windy City for next several seasons. The former Notre Dame standout, who was selected in the second-round of the 2020 NFL Draft, signed a four-year, $50 million extension with the Bears on Wednesday, $32.8 million of which is guaranteed. Kmet’s deal is the first extension that has been handed out under new general manager Ryan Poles, signaling that a new era has officially begun in Chicago.

Major League Baseball left us hanging today, scheduling just five games. However, since one of those games is the Angels and Tigers doubleheader, our model has predictions for four of today’s matchups.

Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers

Model Predicts- Angels ML, OVER 8, Tigers +1.5

The Los Angeles Angels and Detroit Tigers will go head-to-head twice on Thursday, with Game 1 of the doubleheader beginning at 1:10 PM ET.

Los Angeles enters today’s matchup off an extra-innings victory over the Tigers on Tuesday. That was the Angels’ sixth win in their last seven games, showing that the tide has shifted as the trade deadline approaches.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have stalled over the last week and a half, with the club going 5-5 in the last ten games.

The model predictions given for this game are for Game 1 of today’s doubleheader, a game that our model believes the Angels will win. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will the Tigers even the series at one game apiece?

Los Angeles Angels

It was thought by many that Shohei Ohtani was as good as gone as the trade deadline approaches, but the Angels announced that the two-way star will be staying on the roster despite fielding trade offers.

The sudden shift has likely resulted in the Angels’ sudden surge in the standings. Having won seven of the last ten games, Los Angeles now sits seven games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West and just four games back from the final wild card spot.

The winning trend has been highlighted by a much improved hitting attack. Per FanGraphs, the Angels rank fifth in wRC+ (130), fifth in OPS (.846), and seventh in BABIP (.318) since play resumed after the All-Star break, up from the team’s season-long numbers of 113, .780, and .303, respectively.

The consistency at the plate has been welcomed by the Angels, especially since the bullpen has posted the seventh-highest ERA (5.21) since the All-Star break, oftentimes allowing opponents back into the game.

Shohei Ohtani (8-5 record, 3.71 ERA) will be in charge of keeping that bullpen locked up, but his recent performances indicate that will be a challenge.

Ohtani owns one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors this season at 32.2%, per Baseball Savant, but he has fallen off significantly in many other categories. For example his walk and barrel rates have spiked from 6.7% and 6.3% in 2022 to 10.2% and 10.7% in 2023, respectively, ranking the right-hander in the bottom 24% of the majors in both categories. We’ve started to see those flaws catch up to him in July, a month where Ohtani owns a 7.71 ERA and .308 BABIP.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have gone 11-9 since July 1st, an impressive stretch for a team that enters today nine games below .500.

To our surprise, the pitching staff has played a huge role in Detroit’s success this month. FanGraphs has the Tigers listed with a 3.62 Team ERA since July 1st, the seventh-best mark in the majors and significant improvement from Detroit’s 4.41 season ERA.

However, some of the underlying metrics indicate that the pitching staff has gotten a bit lucky over the last several weeks, signaling that regression is on the horizon.

Most notably, Detroit has posted the second-best BABIP (batting average on balls in play) in baseball this month at .256. That number has come about despite Detroit generating a 40.3% ground ball rate and 35.8% Hard Hit rate, two metrics that Detroit finds itself in the bottom half of the league in this month.

Opponents have been hitting the ball hard and putting it in play against the Tigers recently, but those balls just haven’t found their way through the defense. Michael Lorenzen (5-6 record, 3.49 ERA) will try to lower the high rates of contact this afternoon, but the 31-year-old owns a 39.2% Hard Hit rate, 19.1% strikeout rate, and 89.9 mph average exit velocity. He ranks in the bottom 50% of the majors in all three categories.

What’s the Play?

L.A.’s high-powered offense is something that can’t be ignored, and we believe that the Angels can keep things going this afternoon. With that being said, we also think Detroit is in a position to pile on some runs, so we are comfortable with making the over a 3-star play at eight runs.

The Tigers currently rank 28th in runs per game and 29th in OPS, but Ohtani’s and the bullpen’s struggles can help even the playing field. We’ve already seen part of that happen in this series, with Detroit scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth on Tuesday.

Detroit’s pitching staff as a whole is due for some regression, but Lorenzen’s 4.22 xERA shows regression is on the horizon for him as well.

We’ll take our chances with the over against two shaky starting pitchers and bullpens.

3-star play: Over 8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Los Angeles Angels- 52-49 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

• Chicago Cubs- 50-51 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games

• Cleveland Guardians- 51-51 overall this season, 15-14 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Chicago tonight)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Angels- Over is 49-45-7 this season, 26-17-6 as the away team

• Detroit Tigers- Over is 52-45-4 this season, 28-20-2 as the home team

• New York Mets- Under is 56-41-4 this season, 29-14-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Tigers- Run line is 53-48 overall this season, 44-37 as an underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

👀 Shohei Ohtani is officially off the trading block. Trade rumors surrounding Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani have been swirling for the last several weeks, but the Angels announced on Wednesday that Ohtani is now off the trade block. Los Angeles fielded several offers from around the league, but instead opted to keep Ohtani on the roster and make some last-minute trades of their own to improve the Angels’ playoff chances prior to the August 1st trade deadline. Los Angeles sits seven games of first place in the AL West and has not made the postseason since 2014, tied with the Detroit Tigers for the longest playoff drought in the MLB.

⚾️ MLB owners extend commissioner Rob Mafred. Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred was given an extension by the league’s owners on Wednesday, keeping the 64-year-old at the helm until 2029. Manfred became commissioner in 2015 following Bud Selig’s retirement, and has already had his hands in several key changes to the sport, including the pitch clock and putting an automatic runner on second base in extra innings. He has also been a part of several events that has led to criticism during his tenure, which most recently includes allowing the Oakland Athletics to pursue their relocation to Las Vegas.

📦 Dodgers stay busy as the trade deadline approaches. The Los Angeles Dodgers have had their hands in several trades over the last few days, and that remained the case on Wednesday when L.A. sent Noah Syndergaard to the Cleveland Guardians. The Dodgers received shortstop Ahmed Rosario in return for the right-hander, who is batting .265 with three home runs and 40 RBIs this season. Meanwhile, Syndergaard, who will now be on his fifth team in the last three seasons, has not made an appearance on the mound since June 7th and has posted a 1-4 record and 7.16 ERA across 55.1 innings in 2023.

🌧 Hurricanes sign Sebastian Aho to eight-year extension. The Carolina Hurricanes and star center Sebastian Aho have come to terms on an eight-year, $78 million extension that will keep Aho in Raleigh after his current contract comes to an end following the 2023-24 season. The 26-year-old, who celebrated his birthday yesterday, led the Hurricanes with 36 goals last season, making the extension a no-brainer for Carolina. Aho, who already ranks fifth in Hurricanes history in goals and points, will be with the team through the end of the 2031-32 season and will be a huge piece in the Carolina’s quest to bring the Stanley Cup to Raleigh for the first time since 2006.

🇲🇽 Mexico City to host NBA game next season. The NBA will be taking its talents south of the border on November 9th when the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic go head-to-head in Mexico City. It will be the 32nd game to be played in Mexico City since 1992, more than any other country besides the United State and Canada. It will be the first time the Hawks play a game south of the border and its first international contest since playing in the United Arab Emirates last preseason, while it will be Orlando’s fourth time in Mexico since 2012.

⚽️ U.S. women’s national team takes draw against Netherlands. The United States women’s national soccer team played its second game of the World Cup on Wednesday night, ending in a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands. The Dutch scored the first goal of the match in the 17th minute, but Lindsey Horan would even the match in the 62nd minute with her second goal of the World Cup. The draw prevented both the Dutch and Americans from reaching the knockout round, and the U.S. will play Portugal in its next match on Tuesday with the hop of keeping the World Cup three-peat alive.

Today’s trivia requires you to have some knowledge of quarterbacks. We’ve given you five NFL logos, and it is your job to guess who the all-time passing yards leader is for that franchise.

As always, answers can be found at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 27th…

1961- Former Louisiana State University head football coach Ed Orgeron is born in Larose, Louisiana. Orgeron began his coaching days back in 1984 as a graduate assistant at Northwestern State, and eventually went on to gain his first head coaching gig at Ole Miss in 2005. His stint with the Rebels only lasted until 2007, and he would have to wait until LSU came calling in 2016 to have another opportunity to be a head coach. Orgeron posted a 67-47 record in his head coaching career, posting a 4-1 record in bowl games and winning one national championship in 2019.

1983- MLB pitcher Gaylord Perry record his 3,500th career strikeout in a 5-4 victory over the Cleveland Indians. Perry became just the fourth player in MLB history to reach the milestone, joining Walter Johnson, Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan on the list. He also recorded the 311th win of his career that day, his first game in a Kansas City Royals uniform after being released by Seattle earlier in the season.

1992- The Houston Astros begin a 26-game road trip, which is still the longest road trip in MLB history. The reason for the hiatus from Houston was due to the Astrodome being selected to host the 1992 Republican National Convention, forcing the Astros to be on the road for the next 28 days. Houston made stops in Atlanta, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Chicago, St. Louis, and Philadelphia during the trip, going a respectable 12-14 when it was all said and done.

1. Peyton Manning

2. Matthew Stafford

3. Len Dawson

4. Dan Marino

5. Matt Ryan